Wampum

General Musharaff may resign before the restored judiciary (60 justices and the Chief Justice) are re-instated, which now seems a certainty as members of the PML-Q in the Senate are now forming a "forward block" (split from the party leadership) and joining the PPP+PML-N+ANP. When the justices and the CJ are re-instated, General Musharaff's "re-election" last November will be nullified, leaving him ... in need of a non-governmental job.

Just like the election in Gaza, Bush and Rice have gone overboard to keep Musharaff after 3/4ths of a 40% turn-out voted to dump him.

Robert Gates is in New Delhi, along with 50 of his closest fiends from the DoD and the Iron Triangle. via Dawn:

Speculation is rife that Mr Gates will be offering the Indian Navy the soon-to-be decommissioned USS Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier if the Indian Navy agrees to purchase 65 of the newest model Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets to be operated off of it.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is expecting to purchase almost 130 new fighter aircraft, with Boeing and RSK-MiG both in the field of six contenders. A comment reported from Tuesday's interaction in Delhi saying that Mr Gates "made it clear that India and the US military-to-military ties will continue independent of the civil nuclear agreement" may hold the key to the high pressure parleys between the two sides.

For an intelligent shoppers comparison of the RSK-MiG vs F/A-18E/F, I suggest Venik's Aviation. Venik has prices.

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Another gem from the anonymous blogger at Dawn -- Need of the hour. In this piece the surface of what I've been writing about since January, 2005, the unresolved structural problem of the relation between Baluchistan and the Punjabi State, and attendant economic problems (who gets access to Gwadar Port and the Sui gas field, the unnecessary military execution of Nawab Akbar Bugti ... The PML-Q "won" in Baluchestan, but the local parties boycotted the election, and had Akbar Bugti not been murdered, and had he contested the election, neither the PML-Q, or the PPP, or even the PML-N would have shown more than a seat. Anyway, enjoy. I know I do. For any read who's forgotten, all the hydrocarbons in PK are in Baluchistan, some of which was part of Oman up until quite recently, and the rest is as close to Tehran as it is to Islamabad.

I wish Shaheen Sehbai was still editing the South Asian Times. His work was outstanding.

There has been much of talk about the need for a government of "national consensus" to deal with the major issues confronting the country. Asif Zardari has said that the federation is under threat due to the discontent of minority groups. He insists that only a national government can alleviate the situation.

At the moment, there is talk of a three-way alliance between PPP, PML-N and ANP. The parties with the strongest showings in Sindh, Punjab and the Frontier would thus be represented in the central government. But such a situation would exclude Baluchistan, where the PML Q, consigned to the opposition benches in the National Assembly, has maintained its position as the largest party.

There is a pressing need to give the Baluchis a strong voice in any future set-up. The Baluchi people have been in a state of agitation, angry at the exploitation of their natural resources and exclusion from the mega-development projects taking place in their own province. The establishment has only been able to control the situation through the ruthless use of military force, killing former Chief Minister Nawab Akbar Bugti when he openly rebelled against the government.

The PML Q's position in Baluchistan, however, is already looking shaky. It has already lost two legislators in the province, one to an unfavourable vote-recount and the other to a heart attack. The PPP is actively seeking to woo independents and members of the PML-Q, some of whom have already expressed an interest in working with the PPP. If the PPP succeeds in forming the government in Baluchistan, its strong position in the centre would allow it to effectively protect the province's interests. One can only hope, for the sake of Pakistan's unity, that the Baluchi people's grievances are quickly redressed.

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The latest entry from Dawn's blog:

February 18 marked a return to accountability and democracy for the Pakistani people. However, not everyone in Pakistan was given the opportunity to express their political will. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas are home to an entire community of people living within the geographical boundaries of Pakistan, who do not receive the benefits of statehood and are restricted from fully participating in the political process.

Education within the region is abysmal. Less than five per cent of women in the region are literate. Economic opportunities are similarly scarce. Up to 60 per cent of the population lives below the national poverty line, relying on subsistence farming for their basic needs. With no other way to generate revenue, many turn to smuggling contraband such as opium and weapons.

The economic and political isolation of the region has created a vacuum which has been filled by radical elements from Pakistan and abroad. In desperation the Musharraf government chose military rather than political engagement in Waziristan. However, as evidenced by the Sinhalese government in Sri Lanka, the suppression of a disenfranchised minority is bound to be a failure in the long term. The whole-scale isolation of an entire community from the Pakistani state does not bode well for the health of our political system. What is needed is constructive engagement and a reintegration with Pakistani politics and economics.

How does the emergency unravel? Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, who's still under house arrest, telephoned the Sindh High Court general body meeting to notify the newly-elected National Assembly that the Proclamation of Emergency and Provisional Constitutional Order of Nov 3, 2007 are unconstitutional.

Those watching Mushy and the PPP-PML-N aren't watching the hotest pot on the fire, which is the lawyers and civil society.

has warned the newly-elected National Assembly against endorsement of the Nov 3, 2007, proclamation of emergency and the Provisional Constitution Order promulgated under it.

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Juan Cole's got a longish piece anyone who doesn't already know the history of Pakistan's civilian and military governments could read and benefit from. Its a rebuttal of John McCain's (and a host of others) ideas about Pakistan, but serviceable as a nutshell political history. Here's the link.

The unfortunate thing about reaming McCain for having been a party to the creation of present (nice photo of Reagan and the pre-cursors to the Afghan Taliban in the White House) is that ... it is a real challenge to discern the differences between McCain, Clinton and Obama on how they frame issues -- all three are Neo-Cons, or trapped in the Neo-Con web of lies.

If you are able to read French, there's three pages of analysis in yesterday's Le Monde, untroubled by any of the artificial favors of koolaide being sloshed around the media outlets and what used to be blogs (now campaign new-media properties) -- Primaires américaines : "le néoconservatisme continue à structurer la pensée des candidats".

Rather than translate, which is a lot of work, cause I can't keep myself from rewriting, I'll steal three happy paras from the WaPo which Cole links to, to show the truth of the assertion that there isn't any distance between Obama's "strikes" and Bush's "strikes". Of course, in Juan's view, this is exculpatory rather than damning. In my view the opposite is true. So (drumroll, circus tent voice) ...

Which of the following is preferable:

In the predawn hours of Jan. 29, a CIA Predator aircraft flew in a slow arc above the Pakistani town of Mir Ali. The drone's operator, relying on information secretly passed to the CIA by local informants, clicked a computer mouse and sent the first of two Hellfire missiles hurtling toward a cluster of mud-brick buildings a few miles from the town center.

The missiles killed Abu Laith al-Libi, a senior al-Qaeda commander and a man who had repeatedly eluded the CIA's dragnet. It was the first successful strike against al-Qaeda's core leadership in two years, and it involved, U.S. officials say, an unusual degree of autonomy by the CIA inside Pakistan.

Having requested the Pakistani government's official permission for such strikes on previous occasions, only to be put off or turned down, this time the U.S. spy agency did not seek approval.

That's the choice shared by McCain, Huckabee, Clinton and Obama. How about this:

In the predawn hours of Jan. 29, Abu Laith al-Libi was served with an arrest warrant issued by the North Waziristan criminal courts in Mirumshah [Miran Shah]. The warrant was served by a police officer from Mir Ali, the second largest town in North Waziristan, where Abu Laith al-Libi was in hiding.

The arresting officer was supported by a joint force composed of the Darwesh Khel tribal militia, acting under the authority of the Waziri Jirga and the North West Frontier Corps, acting under the authority of the Pakistani state. Abu Laith al-Libi was taken into custody and transported to Mirumshah for arraignment.

The arrest of Abu Laith al-Libi is the latest in a series of arrests of fugitives under the Collective Responsibility Acts in the Frontier Crimes Regulation.

One answer just bumps the rungs of the chain of command ladder, as everyone who's served in wartime knows, the other has another outcome. One is wicked flashy, and costs a lot of tax dollars that get spent in a couple of safe-Republican districts, and a lot more tax dollars that get spent in the logistical tail across monarchies and dictatorships, and generate excellent-dude kerpowie eye-candy for the safe-Republican media outlets, and the other doesn't have those ... partisan characteristics.

Seen any law-and-order candidates lately?

Its something to keep in mind, unless the French have it totally wrong, and LE PAKISTAN, BAPTÊME DU FEU DU FUTUR PRÉSIDENT is simply a cocktail party gag.

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Final NA Results by map

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A little over 24 hours ago, before the early returns were in, enough to give the first contours of the outcome, when massive vote fraud was till a very real possibility, vote fraud sufficient to keep the MMA and PML-Q parties in power, the writer at Dawn's blog wrote this:

Can elections ever be construed as free and fair if a certain segment of society is prevented from partaking in them? In case you are wondering which segment I'm referring to - the correct answer is women.

Of course less the 40% of the electorate actually did vote, but the largest hidden vote suppression is the suppression that doesn't require that names be dropped from the rolls, or that voters be turned away from the polling station, its the suppression that the voter is less than equal, that nothing is on the ballot that actually matters, and that the personification of liberation by the ballot has been shot and bombed in plain sight.

Only 40% of the electorate in Pakistan is literate, and that's males and females, averaged. Parties use symbols. One uses a lantern, to symbolize the light that could come to Pakistan.

Others writing about the election:

Juan Cole published a medium sized piece this morning with analysis and copy also from Dawn.

The Cursor has two paras of links, none to South or West Asian source. I don't read the cursor, but others do.

William Harting has a piece at one of Josh Micah Marshall's sites, unfortunately, its again sources far from Asia and mostly cover for Joe Biden's most recent offer to increase the US contribution to Pakistan without specific condition, specific like engage in disarmament with India or increase the funding of girl's eduction.

That's about it in the greater leftish blogodome for PK coverage.

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The people in the NWFP voted out of power the religious parties. I don't expect that this fact will make it to the foreign policy talking heads inside the beltway, but it means that the Pashtun resistance to the Punjabi military isn't about Islamic fundamentalists vs secular modernists. That isn't the only take-away. Is the Pashtun resistance to the NATO military a conflict between Islamic fundamentalists and secular modernists?

According to Geo TV, the combined total for the PML-N and the PPP is 139 seats, more than half of the 272-seat National Assembly, with the PPP winning 77 seats, and the PML-N winning 62 seats. The PML-Q managed to win only 34 seats.

Dawn's blogger writes:

The general mood in Pakistan is buoyant. The streets in Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi are filled with youthful supporters and party activists, cars blaring traditional party music and walls coloured in PML (N) and PPP flags.

The remaining biggies? Is the PPP+PML-N+minor-parties coalition a simple or two-thirds majority? On that question hangs impeachement. Will the judiciary be restored? On that question hangs the legality of General Musharaff's re-election.

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Results for 125 out of 272 constituencies are in.

Nawaz Sharif's PML-N picked up 50 seats.

Benazir Bhutto's PPP picked up 39 seats.

Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi's PML-Q only managed 18 seats.

Smaller parties and independents also managed 18.

Update: Results for for 179 out of 272 constituencies are in.

The PML-N has won 56 seats.

The PPP has also won 56 seats.

The PML-Q has managed just 21 seats.

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Polls closed 2:45 minutes ago.

Dawn is live blogging the vote. See blog.dawn.com.

Early returns show the PML-Q losing nearly every seat contested by the PPP.

The South Asian media hasn't got anything up on their main sites.

Updates as usual.

1. Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed (PML-Q) is trailing behind Javed Hashmi (PML-N) and second place Sardar Shuakat Hayat (PPP) in Rawalpindi. He's been minister of railways in the Musharaff government, has won seven prior elections, and is a "close confident" of the General.

2. Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain (PML-Q), and party chairman, has lost one of his two current parliamentary seat to a candidate from the PPP.

3. Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain (PML-Q), and party chairman, has lost the other of his two current parliamentary seat, also to a candidate from the PPP.

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Three platforms in crib:

• 5 Es -- employment, energy, education, environment and equality -- PPP
  
• "RESTORE" -- Restoration of (pre-Nov 3) judiciary, democracy and the (pre-Oct 1999 coup) 1973 constitution, Elimination of military's rule in politics, Security of life and property, Tolerance, Overall reconciliation, Relief for the poor, and Education and employment -- PML-N
  
• 5 Ds -- democracy, development, defence, devolution and diversity -- PML-Q
  

In the last few hours Chaudhry Asif Ashraf, a candidate of the PML-N, for the Punjab provincial assembly was shot to death, and nine other party worker were wounded by an armed group in Lahore. Another armed group engaged a polling office of the PML-N at Lahore, killing one party worker and wounding several others.

Jemima Khan, the former wife of Imran Khan, has an interview with Mushy The politics of paranoia in The Independent on Sunday. A teaser:

The likely winners, boosted by the "martyr factor", are likely to be the PPP, followed by the party led by ex-prime minister Nawaz Sharif, the PML-N. There will have to be some uncomfortable but expedient alliances between sworn enemies. Sharif jailed Zardari. Musharraf jailed and exiled Sharif, Musharraf jailed Zardari, Zardari's wife jailed Sharif's father. Sharif brought corruption charges against Zardari's wife after she brought charges against him. And so on. It would be amusing to see this group all wrangling with each other for power, if only the consequences were not so dire.

Also worth reading is the re-working of a piece she's supposed to have written for The Independent on Sunday, an interview with Mushy. I can't find the original, but here's the link to the reworking of it in Dawn -- Musharraf predicts majority seats for PML-Q, MQM.

Joe Biden, Chuck Hagel and John Kerry are in Islamabad to observe the election. I hope they have the sense to do some reading.

US coverage? The NYTimes is aware there is a PPP, a PML-N, and a PML-Q, however, their narrative is the "fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the region", so as far as the Gray Lady is concerned, what began as a fight against al-Qa'ida and the Taliban in the NWFP hasn't become a Pashtun uprising against the Punjabi army, and the majority sympathy is with the Pashtuns. The LATimes is aware there is a PPP, but not much else. So much for press coverage of the central front in the war on mumbleisms.

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Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif met for lunch yesterday at Sharif's home outside of Lahore, their second lunch date this week. My impression is that there will be a coalition PPP - PML-N majority, two of the four possible post-election outcomes. Vote-rigging blocked their parties from obtaining a majority in the 2002 elections, and the PML-Q (pro-Mushy) "won" and held power until 2007, until replaced by a "caretaker" government. A repeat of the 2002 vote-rig covers the other two possible post-election outcomes.

There were bombings and shootings during the day yesterday, the largest was the bombing of a PPP rally at a candidate's home in Parachinar in the Kurram tribal agency (in the NWFP), wounding 90 and killing 40. Both the PPP and the PML-N canceled their final events in Lahore, advantage PML-Q, which oddly benefits from every breakdown in security for its electoral rivals.

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Actually, there are many Muslims in India, as well as many Sikhs. Delhi is a cosmopolitan city. Watching the Pakistani news outlets and the Indian news outlets (between the scads of channels devoted to either singing and dancing romantically, or singing and dancing spiritually, or just plain old every-day-is-Sunday TV preachers) was interesting. Everyone is dancing on, or around, the question of what General Musharaff will do after the PML-Q is trounced.

Just as the November election will be about Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and the remainder of the primary race will be about Ohio and Texas on March 4th, and Pennsylvania on April 22nd, the election in Pakistan is all about the Punjab.

The PPP is sweeping the rural areas of the Sindh and the MQM is holding its edge in the Sindh's urban areas. Polls have the PPP at 40 and the MQM at 16 of the directly elected national seats.

The Balouch and Pakhtun nationalist parties are boycotting the election, leaving the pro-regime MMA to take some seats in Balochistan, and the PPP, PML-N and PML-Q to take the balance of the Balochistan's directly elected national seats.

In the North West Frontier Provice, where everyone from Wes Clark to Barak Obama has proposed parachuting in the Saudi Army, or the Utah National Guard, to Hunt for Red Ossama, the MMA has collapsed and Jamaat-i-Islami is now canvassing openly. Again, polling data has the PPP and the ANP (Awami National Party) spliting most of the NWFP's directly elected national seats.

But the Punjab elects 148 of the 272 directly elected seats, so to repeat the obvious, the "national election" in the Punjabi state and its occupied peripheries, governed by the Punjabi Military, is really all about the Punjab, about the balance of forces within the Punjabi state.

Its a three-plus way. The PPP is running on "revenge through democracy" and is running second in the major cities, Nawaz Sharif's PML-N is ahead in the urban areas and picking up surprise seats in Rawalpindi. Rural Punjab is divided, with candidates formerly members of the MMA now scattered to PML-N, PML-Q, the PPP, and the MMA. Like the democratic primaries to date, accumulating delegates with no strategic advantage to either remaining active candidate, the post-election construction of a majority coalition is the only issue. Will the PPP have enough to form a majority without another major party partner, the PML-N in particular? No one asks if the MNA and the PML-Q will have a majority, except through vote fraud.

Major Party Websites:

• PPP, leader: Benazir Bhutto (assassinated)
  
• PML-N, leader: Nawaz Sharif
  
• PML-Q, leader: Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi [Musharaff]
  
• MMA, leader: General Musharaff
  

As an exercise, color in the blank outline map according to the authoritative news available to you.

Remember, the title for this series is "Is Pakistan?", and related to the question "What will Mushy do if?" is the question "What will Georgie do when?"

Answers in comments.

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Susie's sent a wicked brilliant piece over the transom to Joe Trippi [link], and something that I've been mulling over in the few idle moments Jonah and the gang and work leave me with ... what if we advised the Edwards campaign? I mean, threw stuff at them, because, they need to pull a rabbit out of a hole in a hat.

When Susie read us the script and got to the Chris Mathews moment I _knew_ the next line would be "Senator Edwards, how much did you pay for your haircut?"

So, Pakistan. Bhutto, Nukes, Baluchistan and Iran, and the Tribal Autonomous Areas.

Senator Clinton opined that there should be a independent, international investigation into Benazir Bhutto's assassination, suggesting that Pakistani security forces or military might have been involved.

She's spot-on that in the history of political successions in Pakistan, the military and the intelligence service have acted with lethal agency, but dreaming that the UNSC (China in particular) would vote to compel a Hariri-like investigation, and further dreaming that the military and the intelligence service could be compelled, in a state under their control, to cooperate and assume culpability for even negligence, or worse. Day dreaming.

Senator Clinton also opined that she would try to get Musharraf to share the security responsibility of the nuclear weapons with a delegation from the United States and perhaps Great Britain so that there is some failsafe.

To quote Jeff Lewis, who has a day job as an academic arms control policy wonk:

First, there is simply no way Pakistan would ever agree to it.

Second, it would complicate both U.S.-Indian relations and deterrence on the subcontinent. My eyes cross when I begin to think about the implications of an American/British failsafe in the context of a Pakistani-Indian nuclear standoff.

Third, it would violate the NPT. Article I of the NPT requires nuclear-weapon States like America to not in any way to assist, encourage, or induce any non-nuclear weapon State to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons. Under the NPT, Pakistan is a non-nuclear weapon State.

Next there is Baluchistan and Iran, for which Senator Clinton is not particularly on record. But we are and so John Edwards could be, cause we're way ahead of the curve. We don't really want to frustrate China's attempt to get a straw into the Sui gas field and Gulf oil, because we're not sipping Dick Cheney's mint koolips, and we don't think the whole damn world revolves around nuclear end games for peak oil. That said, we don't give a damn if Baluchistan rejoins Oman or stays in Pakistan, but if it stays in Pakistan, the Punjabi state needs to figure out what "federalism" means, and how they can broker sales of Baluchi natural gas to India. The other side of the Baluchi-Punjabi relationship is the Iranian frontier, and there are US troops there, wicked far away from OBL in or north of, the Autonomous Tribal Areas, doing nothing useful. But doing it far too close to Iran's defense perimeter. They need a movement order, to Diego Garcia or Kuwait or Europe or back home.

Finally there is the Tribal Autonomous Areas. The OBL problem. The worst proposal to come from a Democratic candidate came from Wes Clark in the last cycle -- turn it over to the Saudis and let them ... do it. The value in this is its wrongness. The Pakistani state has never controlled the Tribal Autonomous Areas, it is why they are called the Tribal Autonomous Areas. Whatever our interests are in the area, we are less likely to achieve those interests if we ignore the autonomous and tribal nature of those areas. We have a relationship with the Punjabi state. We need a relationship with the Pashtuns as well, and a constructive one, not just a sequence of special ops. We need to build schools for girls, it is the better choice and it is our enemies weakest spot.

There, less than 2 minutes to make four points in a debate, points that are really about what we'll be doing in 2012, dancing around the same campfire, graced with another many-k of US and Iraqi skulls and crossbones, or out, and comforting the afflicted, creating less long-term risk to ourselves in passing.

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Pervez Musharraf has today allowed as how it is just possible that Benazir Bhutto died as a result of one or more gunshot wounds to the head and neck. Up until today the official line was skull fracture -- the "lever theory".

Something worth reading is this -- The future of democracy in Pakistan, by Asif Ali Zardari, the husband of Benazir Bhutto and a former Pakistani senator, and co-chairman of the Pakistan People's Party. Recall that Wes Clarke wanted to turn the hunt for OBL over to the Saudis, which is the equivalent of using foreign troops to end the political autonomy of a portion of "Pakistan" that has not been under the complete control of the Punjabi military since the Partition of British India, so daftness abounds in all things Pakistani even on the the left hand side of the dial.

Today the Daily Times (Lahore) has a SECOND EDITORIAL: PPP's report on pre-rigging

The PPP Election Cell has unsealed a report that the late PPP leader Ms Benazir Bhutto was going to send to the US revealing the role of the state intelligence agencies in what is called "pre-rigging". The 45-page report graphically describes the activities of one state agency in Balochistan, clearly aimed at boosting the PMLQ candidate in Dera Bugti while eliminating his opponents through intimidation and such devices as abductions. One candidate was unable to file his candidature because he simply "disappeared". Also, in the 45 districts of Punjab -- especially Chakwal, Bahawalpur, Attock and Lahore -- the nazims were found actively engaged in boosting PMLQ candidates.

The PML-Q is part of the Musharaff government. I've written several times in the past on Baluchistan, the category is Is Pakistan?.

Oh! Surprise! (not). The Bush Regime just floated (via the ever-accommodating Gray Lady) the news that it is considering expanding covert military and intelligence operations in Pakistan.

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Qui Bono?

I've thought a bit about the universe of possible authors of the successful political assassination operation conducted on December 27th at Liaquat Bagh, in Rawalpindi. I've gotten mail from members of the Hizb ut Tahrir which I've organized here. The Hizb position is that elections as practiced are inherently flawed, a position shared by Ralph Nader, John Edwards, and just about everyone aware of the role of overt institutional influences -- corporate, religious, military, etc., and covert institutional influences -- criminal organizations, foreign agencies, etc -- have in determining the "correct" outcomes of one-person-one-vote contests, See in particular the Political Program of the Hizb ut-Tahrir, which dates from the attempt by Uzbeck Dictator Islam Karimov and Bush ally to award blame for three coordinated explosions that took place in Tashkent in August, 2004.

So, probably not the Hizb or any Hizb-like movement, even those with operational abilities.

Then there's the AQP theory, denied by Baitullah Mehsud as soon as the government's finger pointed towards "Al Qaeda", whether domestic or foreign. Benazir's brothers operated in the same area with the same local tribal vs Punjabi political alignments, from Soviet-occupied Afganistan against the Zia ul Haq dictatorship, the prior incantation of military rule in Pakistan. Assassination of the opposition PPP candidate (or the PML-N candidate) would not weaken the Musharaff dictatorship, unless of course, the "AQP" could hang responsibility on the government or its political supporters -- or Inter-Services Intelligence operatives.

So, probably not the AQP or any AQP-like movement with operational abilities.

In fact, individual assassination isn't going to change the balance of forces overtly organized as political parties with political platforms and material interests, as there is always a "next in succession".

Random shooters don't manage two hitters plus enough bodies to flood the killing zone and block escape by the target vehicle.

So, what organization is capable, and can expect a better outcome from assassination prior to the election than from allowing the target to survive the election and re-acquire limited command and control over the state?

From Dawn's January 2nd edition:

Benazir was set to file dossier on rigging
KARACHI, Jan 1: Benazir Bhutto was poised to reveal proof the night she was assassinated that the Election Commission and a shadowy spy agency were seeking to rig the elections, a top aide said on Tuesday.

Senator Latif Khosa, who authored a 160-page dossier with Ms Bhutto documenting rigging tactics, said they ranged from intimidation to fake ballots, and were in some cases unwittingly funded by US aid.

Ms Bhutto had been due to give the report to two visiting US lawmakers over a dinner on Dec 27, the day she was killed in a gun-and-bomb attack.

"The state agencies are manipulating the whole process," Mr Khosa, a top aide of Ms Bhutto and head of the PPP election monitoring unit, told Reuters.

"There is rigging by the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence), the Election Commission and the previous government, which is still continuing to hold influence. They were on the rampage."

President Pervez Musharraf's spokesman Rashid Qureshi dismissed the claim as "ridiculous".

"It makes one laugh," he said. "The president has said a free, fair, transparent and peaceful election is essential, which forms part of his overall strategy for transforming Pakistan into a fully democratic (nation)."

"Benazir's coming back to Pakistan was part of a national reconciliation ordinance," he added. "Take it from me, it's going to be perhaps the best election that Pakistan has ever had."

Mr Khosa said the report, entitled "Yet another stain on the face of democracy", details how the spy agency was planning to issue 25,000 pre-stamped ballots for each of 108 candidates for NA seats in Punjab from the party that backs President Musharraf and formed his government. "They have used intimidatory tactics, they intimidated the returning officers into rejecting nomination papers ... they prevented candidates from submitting their nomination papers," Mr Khosa said. "This happened in Balochistan and in the other central areas of Pakistan. It happened in Sindh." --Reuters

McClatchy is running a piece that is surprising to find in the US media market. Commentary: Sins of omission and sins of commission haunt Bush in Pakistan, by Joseph L. Galloway. Via Susie.

That's part 1. There's a part 2.

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Two interesting posts about Pakistan.

1. Barnett Rubin has published a wicked good piece (and the comments really add to it) at ICGA: Pakistan's Power Puzzle (With Corrections from Comments), via Juan Cole

2. Ahmed Rashid has published an incisive analysis from Pakistan in Yale Global Online, via Barnett Rubin's post (above)
   

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I'm still trying to figure out what former first-lady and presently junior Senator from the State of New York could possibly have in mind when suggesting an international investigation into the murder of PPP chairperson Benazir Bhutto. It is a reasonable political posture to make, to look tough and set up the personal narrative of Hillary vs Mushy, but it isn't substantive. The UNSC can't possibly vote without a veto by China, to impose a foreign investigation, which may be a multi-lateral facade in the best of circumstances, so that leaves ... a bilateral facade or the best that expectations of rule of law can accomplish.

Assistant Inspector-General of CID Chaudhry Abdul Majeed and a four-member police team started investigation into the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. They hope to identify the people who forced Ms. Bhutto's car to stop while she was leaving the rally. They may not come to the same cause-of-death conclusion that the government came to within minutes of the execution of the assassination operation at Liaquat Bagh.

Pakistanis will have to work around the domestic minefield of the Army, the SIS, the domestic bombers, and the comforting myth of a foreign bomber, its their Bush vs Gore, their case that can't be cited.

I'm much more impressed with former Vice-Presidential nominee Edwards telephoning General Musharaff, which puts all the rigged election cards on the table, even if none are face up.

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Medical reports had at least one entry/exit pair, thorax or skull, mostly both, with brain matter protruding, and eye witnesses who transported the not yet pronounced body and who washed the pronounced corpse reported multiple entry/exit wound pairs to the neck and head.

The government selected the narratives of fatal self-injury, clarified subsequently to fatal secondary blast rebound. Definitely, no bullet wounds, no fragments either, in the body of Ms. Bhutto, according to the government.

Fixation on mechanism is a distraction from determination of agency.

This morning's dispatches in Le Monde had a quote from a woman in the vehicle directly behind Bhutto's vehicle, who recounted that she had just remarked with alarm to another person in the party that suddenly there were several unknown faces with Bhutto badges at the vehicle staging point and that she was looking away from the point of attack, distracted, when the first shot was fired.

There is footage of the shooter adjacent to another person prior to the attack, and footage of the shooter, firing, several times, at a distance of less than 4 meters from Ms. Bhutto.

Which puts the attack team at no less than two persons, and potentially larger, large enough to flood the security periphery and provoke the "sudden new faces with badges" impression in a survivor.

More than 800 people have been killed in bombings in Pakistan this year. It is unlikely that a single agency is the author of all of these operations, and in the history of political successions in Pakistan, the military and the intelligence service have acted with agency.

The Election Commission has now formally delayed the January 8th legislative election.

Posted by EBW at 10:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Pakistan:
Dawn

The Daily Times (Lahore)

India:
The Hindu

Times of India

Iran:
IRNA

[Originally posted on 11.05.07, bumped to 12.28.07]

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Benazir Bhutto, top right, is seen with her family in July 1978. From left to right are her mother, Nusrat Bhutto, her brother Shahnawaz Bhutto, her father, former Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Her brother Murtaza Bhutto is at bottom left and her sister Sanam Bhutto is at bottom right. (AP Photo)

In 1979 Zulfikar Ali was the the victim of a judicial murder (hanging after conviction by a military court) staged by Muhammad Zia ul Haq, then military dictator of Pakistan. In 1985 Shahnawaz was found dead in his French Riviera apartment in Nice. He and Murtaza had organized an armed opposition to the Zia ul Haq dictatorship from Soviet-occupied Afghanistan. In 1996 Murtaza was shot to death by police in Karachi, a homicide that is still "unsolved".

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We are saddened by the assassination of former Primer Minister Benazir Bhutto, and hope that the planners of this political murder are discovered, and the rule of law, which lawyers and judges in Pakistan have sacrificed so much to protect and maintain, remains intact and protects the innocent.

Via The Hindu:

A doctor on the surgical team said a bullet in the back of her neck damaged her spinal cord before exiting from the side of her head. Another bullet pierced the back of her shoulder and came out through her chest, he said on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media. She was given an open heart massage, but the spinal cord damage was too great, he said.

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... an expansion of the CENTCOM Area of Operations to eastern, southern and of course, western Iran, the possibility that SIS-Appointed Musharaff and Rehnquist-Appointed Bush have created a favorable situation can't be dismissed. Freedom of maneuver for Taliban presidential assassination squads as far as Rawalpindi from the North West is profoundly surprising.

The January 8th legislatives are likely to be cancelled and a new state of emergency, somewhat fictive after Musharaff's last one just to rid himself of judicial scrutiny, is certain.

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Benazir Bhutto (PPP) was shot once in the neck at close range, and suffered head injuries from the follow-up blast which killed or wounded many people proximal to the shooter and his target, and was pronounced dead in a hospital in Rawalpindi.

A few minutes before the assassination. Here's Dawn's coverage:

Benazir Bhutto Assassinated

Benazir Bhutto dies ISLAMABAD, Dec 27: Former prime minister Benazir Bhutto succumbed to her injuries in the hospital, tv channels reported. She had received grievous bullet injuries in the neck region and head injuries from the bomb blast at the election meeting at Liaquat Bagh which also claimed at least 20 more lives. (Posted @ 18:28 PST)

About 20 killed in blast after Benazir rally RAWALPINDI, Pakistan, Dec 27 (AP) An explosion went off shortly after opposition leader Benazir Bhutto addressed a political rally in Rawalpindi's Liaquat Bagh, killing at least 20 people, witnesses said. An Associated Press reporter at the scene could see body parts and flesh scattered at the back gate of Liaquat Bagh. He counted about 20 bodies, including police, and could see many other wounded people. Police official Abdul Karim said Benazir had already left the area in her vehicle when the blast went off. (First Posted @ 16:05 PST Updated @ 17:34 PST)

Also in Rawalpindi gunmen opened fire on supporters of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif (PML-N) killing four.

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Cassidy and Associates just dumped Gen.Musharraf. The C&A Pakistan contract was managed by Senior VP Robin Raphel, a former assistant secretary of state for South Asia (1993 to 1997). C&A represents Orcs, so this is surprising.

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I mentioned this a few weeks ago in Criminals, careerists and courtiers at Al Asad Air Base.

Elsewhere, Pakistani elites are carrying on pretty much as if nothing is forecast that would dampen the political quadrille around the presidential election, which means that neither Musharaff or Bhutto have been briefed that a movement order is pending that would zero out their respective domestic calculations.

In my view, the skirmishes in the NWFP and Baluchistan areas of operations are unremarkable, insufficient to motivate either non-accommodation with the political opposition parties, or yesterday's sudden coup d'etat, which could just as easily tilt towards civil resistance as military relaxation.

Is the better explanation Iran?

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Of the nineteen justices on the Supreme Court, fifteen, including Chief Justice ftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, were "removed" and arrested over the weekend. Of the twenty seven justices on the Sindh High Court, twenty three judges, including Chief Justice Sabihuddin Ahmed were "removed" and arrested over the weekend.

The device employed is a requirement to "take oath" under the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) that was issued by the Musharraf Regime directly after its proclamation of a "state of emergency" on Saturday.

Thomas Moore refused to swear the Oath of Supremacy of 1534, which made Henry Tudor head of the Church of England, was charged with praemunire, tried for treason, sentenced to death, and beheaded at London Tower. His last words were The King's good servant, but God's First. The translation to modern Pakistan, or the US after Gore v Bush, substitutes "Constitution" for "God".

Shaukat Aziz has just made the first official announcement of the scope of the arrests -- between 400 and 500 "preventative arrests". At this point, just about anyone you could name from the bench or the courts or the opposition parties is either in custody or has been issued a "30 day house arrest", so its Burma write a bit larger, with nuclear weapons, and $11,000,000,000 in military aid from the Bush Regime, which held its own coup in December 12, 2001.

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Tariq Aziz and Rehman Malik have been meeting for months, negociating on behalf of their principals. Yesterday their principals, President and General Pervez Musharraf and former Prime Minister and leader of the PPP, Benazir Bhutto, flew from Islamabad and London, respectively, to meet in Abu Dhabi yesterday. The meeting was unannounced and follows eight years of extreme hostility between them.

I expect a Constitutional amendment to change the current two-term limit to three, and Musharraf to surrender command of the Army, contemporanious with Bhutto's return from exile and standing as the PPP's candidate for President, with the actual intent to be re-appointed as Prime Minister under the (less unitary executive) third-term Musharraf presidency.

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Today was a court and travel day, so this is half-a-day-old "news". Lawyers beat Army one nill in the playoffs today. The net is that Musharaff have to figure out an alternative to standing (legally) for re-election in the next general election.

Coup or exile?

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Since the US press is chock-a-block with AQinPAK noise, for the usual indiscriminate value of AK and PAK, I thought it would be useful to post this snippit from Dawn's coverage of the persistent armed friction between the periphery and the center of the always problematic Pakistani (or Punjabi) Military State.

Militants have intensified attacks on the security forces since a local Taliban Shura announced last week that it had scrapped a peace agreement with the government.

As attacks on security forces mount in the troubled region, the government has convened a 45-member inter-tribal jirga in Peshawar on Thursday to launch a fresh bid to revive the now defunct September 5 [2006] peace agreement in North Waziristan.

Fata Additional Chief Secretary Javed Iqbal said that he was confident that negotiations would help revive the 10-month-old peace agreement.

"It is in the collective interest of us all. It is in their (tribal people's) interest and it is in our interest. Tribesmen are very pragmatic people and I am confident they will return to negotiations," he said.

The militants said they would not revive the peace agreement unless the government withdrew troops from checkpoints and stop military operations.

However, just as "Homeland Security" threat levels must rise when the domestic political tides of the RNC fall, AQ is now the proud owner of some (or all, depending on which paper and pundit are taken as gospelkoranic truth) of PAK.

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The Islamabad District Bar Association was engaged today with a man-packed munition 20 minutes before Chief Justice Iftikar M Chaudhry was scheduled to speak. The bomber detonated his payload underneath the speaker's dias, killing at least 10 people and wounding another 35.

The question of the moment is was the CJ the target, or was Benizer Bhutto's party, the PPP, the target. Most of the killed and wounded are PPP, but had the payload been detonated 20 minutes later, the CJ would have been a casualty.

Bhutto is the only opposition leader to have welcomed the July 11 attack on Lal Masjid and expressed unqualified support for Musharaff.

Updates as they come in.

Update: U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher: We all recognize that the agreement in North Waziristan hasn't worked, because the government doesn't have direct control., and [the U.S. will help Pakistan boost its Frontier Corps] so they become a different kind of force that's able to deal with the severe problems, but also stabilize the area.

If the Punjabi state had direct control over North Waziristan, no agreement would be necessary. As for making the FC able to deal with the severe problems (more firepower) and stabilize (less firepower), at $2bn/yr already, what does Assistant Secretary Boucher have in mind? Booster chairs?

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I wrote about North Waziristan yesterday but it appears that either (a) I wrote it in my dreams, or (b) the USENET line eater bug evolved out of cyberia and manifested as a MT feature. Anyway, the gist of what I wrote was that I'd not been writing about the standoff at a mosque in Islamabad because I didn't think that situation very relevant to the question "Is Pakistan?" Compared to the questions of which political parties and leaders are allowed to contest the next election, of whether Musharaff will run again, and if so, again as head-of-army and head-of-state, of whether there is an independent judiciary, of whether Baluchistan or the Waziristans or ... even the Sind have greater or lesser access to the real centers of military and civil power in the Punjabi Military and its State, a firefight between dozens of bearded suicides and several reinforced companies of infantry, with air and armor executing some fire missions is ... well ... absurd.

In fact, it is something of a distraction from the real problems faced by the Musharaff regime within the Punjabi Military, serving to legitimate the current notion of "Pakistan" and its dominant institutions. One actor or another, whether Musharaff or Bush or Bhutto or ... will use it as a pretext.

Over the weekend the truce between Islamabad and the North Waziristan ended. The September 2006 peace agreement between center (labeled "legitimate") and periphery (labeled "Taliban") called for the removal of military checkpoints in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), which the military unilaterally imposed while conducting defense reduction operations at the Lal Masjid-Jamia Hafsa (Red Mosque) in Isl