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Juan Cole v Hillary Rodham Clinton

Is there such a thing as a tactical nuclear weapon? Can nuclear weapons be used "tactically" in a "theater limited" war, with acceptable risk of the conflict not escalating into unrestricted warfare with civilian population centers immediately becoming the primary elements of the opposing sides' targeteers?

One of the hallmarks of the Bush Regime's ascendency has been first-use and theater limited use, that complete inventory expenditure is not the most likely outcome of scenarios involving weapons states, whether directly or indirectly.

Would you want to turn over the launch codes to anyone who thinks he or she can "just use a few" to advance American interests?

I'm perplexed by Juan Cole's take on the ABC's Good Morning America show the morning of the Pennsylvania election. Someone set up the question -- Clinton was asked what she would do if Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons. This presupposes Iran's uranium enrichment program is not so that Iran can enter the commercial fuel market, and there is no evidence that Iran has produced highly enriched uranium, and become a vendor of nuclear fuel rods, and it presumes that Iran then weaponizes some stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and it presumes that Iran mates the weapons package(s) with some delivery platforms, and with or without testing, enages some targets in Israel with these nuclear weapons.

One line of analysis is that the candidate accepted the premise of the question, and should not have.

Another line of analysis is that the candidate accepted the premise of the question for reasons that may be more complex than the assumption that the premise is likely to be true.

But what is the better answer to the question "what will happen if one weapons state attacks another weapons state?" Which is the reasonable answer "effect without counter-effect" or "effect and counter-effect"?

Finally, the shared knowledge of the authors of the question, ABC's cast of political talent, and the campaign's political talent which includes the candidate, and of the passive audience, is that three weapons states, Israel, the United States and even France have threatened first-use, specifically against Iran, and the house of cards includes the disposition of more than two nuclear weapons states arsenals, there's Pakistan's to consider, and it may not end there.

Does the question asked "if Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons" become meaningless if the sequence of "Iran", "Israel" is reversed? If other weapons states names are used instead of one, or the other, or both? And what about the answer? Is there ever effect without counter-effect?

The worst reading of the intent of the answer I've seen came from Juan Cole who wrote:
"Senator Clinton is by now just flailing around fantasizing about incinerating children in playgrounds in Isfahan.

I do not hope for a candidate who does not use the language of deterrence, and if there is a transfer of power from the Bush Regime to an elected administration of a different political party, I hope that administration will decrement a weapons inventory without adding weapons marketed as "capable of producing effect without counter-effect". I also hope, in that hypothetical and uncertain future, that administration will encourage the administrations of other weapons states to decrement inventories, without without adding weapons marketed as "capable of producing effect without counter-effect."

Comments

Your take is dreadful. Clinton and Biden cheer-led the Iraq War. She's 4-8 more years of Bush as much as McCain is.

I said in 2002 that Clinton had taken herself out of contention as a DEMOCRATIC presidential candidate. Her egregious behavior since then has only proven me right.

I would rather see the DLC, the neoconservative movement, and their hench-thugs obliterated than the innocent people of Iran - against whom the guilt of the ruling American elites is total.

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Clinton has now used the phrase "massive retaliation" at least three times, confirming it in response to questions.

I agree that she should never have responded to the question in the first place, based as it is on at least two hypotheticals (that Iran will have nuclear weapons and that they will attack Israel with them).

But she did, and she has repeated the same formula when she has been questioned.

The phrase "massive retaliation" is a codeword for the response the United States would have made to a nuclear attack by the Soviet Union (or the reverse). It is unconscionable to use it in any context in today's world.

What would be the United States' response if Israel attacked Iran with nuclear weapons? Perhaps someone should ask her that.

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Marion,

Your druthers are your own, but a whole bunch of Democrats are voting for the candidate you depricate, and you get to decide if you want the language of deterrence to continue, of if you prefer the Bush/Cheney alternative, that use of nuclear weapons may not lead to MAD, and nuclear wars are winnable.

CKR,

Thanks for a kinder reading. I'm afraid that the absence of the language of deterrence is pretty dangerous while there are still very large weapons inventories. I'll take Kerry's position over Bush's in the '04 debate on where the risk is, in decay and loss of control of large weapons inventories, or in the single device hypothetical.

I don't think it really needs to be spelled out, to the Israeli elite or to the American elites, that use of a nuclear weapon by Israel would increase the probability of the use of another nuclear weapon, and that the probability grows with each subsequent use that some will originate in other inventories and engage targets in Israel and the US.

Look, you can try and play symmetric trick questions with your private time with the candidate, but you have alternatives and if the subject is serious, you may as well be serious too.

Thank you both for coming over to Wampum and kicking the tires.

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