Wampum

If you entertained some of these librettos just 24 hours ago to accompany your tone poem of an American hand rocking the cradle of Iraq's democratic destiny (think of Wagner), you may want to give your librettist a heads-up.

First, Iran is on record that it wants military operations halted, and has closed the Shalamsheh border crossing, near Basra. Scratch [1]. Second, the Badr Corp (aka "Iraqi Army") hasn't managed any territorial gains and units of the "Iraqi Army" and "Iraqi Police" have defected/surrendered to the Basra defense forces. scratch [3]. Third, repeat the previous and scratch [5].

[1] "Iran is liquidating its no longer useful proxies" theory (which would fit this general line of speculation about Iran's doubts about Sadr and preference for the simultaneously-US backed ISCI) to the generally most prevalent (in the Iraqi and Arab, not just Western, media) [2] "Maliki and ISCI are liquidating their more popular rivals ahead of the provincial elections" theory; the optimistic [3] "Sadr has lost power and now's the time to take him out" theory (thus far not borne out by the course of the fighting, but who knows - it's early, or it could be a miscalculation); [4] Maliki's own "it's time to establish state sovereignty over a 'lost' province" theory (which Bush, of course, has embraced, and is supported by the reporting that the Iraqi Army began its preparations for the attack months ago; but then why isn't he taking on the other militias and warlords? and why would he start now, and in Basra?); and [5] Reidar Visser's "Maliki is trying to build a power base in the Iraqi Army" theory. [note: numbers added to make Kevin Drum happy.]

via another theory for the pile

It probably isn't the best message in a primary that the "civil war" in Iraq, or the "civil war" between Shi'ite factions, isn't a "civil war", between a semi-legitimate "government" and some semi-illegitimate "criminal gangs" (the DoD pressers reads like something the PRC put out during the haydays of the Gang of Four), but is a class war between the wealthier expats parachuted into Iraq from Iran by Paul Bremer to "form a government", and the poorer Iraqi resistance to Saddam, who like the poor everywhere, wicked outnumber the rich and can't be trusted to form political parties or wield a ballot.

However, if you bet your "Responsible Plan" narrative on libretto #2, you may be stuck with an aria extolling Nouri al-Maliki and the (pro-Iranian) Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, and a Democratic favorite -- why voter suppression is a win for democracy, in Florida and in Iraq. If you bet on libretto #4, the aria has to extol the virtues of the Fadhila Party, a splinter from the Sadrist movement to which the Governor of Basra, Mohammed al-Waili, is a member, and is widely credited with running all the oil smuggling operations in the province, and sing long and loud about the beauty of oil and petro-dollars in the hands of the blessed few.

Today Nouri al-Maliki managed to say this while the cameras were rolling

We used to talk about al Qaeda. Unfortunately it seems there are some among us who are worse than al Qaeda.

There are two important messages there. First, the political opposition to Nouri al-Maliki and those who sail with him, that is, the Basra defense forces and the militia that has unilaterally "stood down" for most of 2007 and ceased military operations against US forces, though they are politically opposed to the Occupation and collaboration with the Occupation Forces, are "worse than Al Qaeda". Second, when was the last time you heard your pony in the Iraqi democratic horse race mention Al Qaeda? If that "war" is over, what is your theory of operations?

It probably isn't the best message in a Democratic primary that Democrats should, no, must, for reasons of state secrets electabality, support reactionary expat elites using death squads and foreign mercenaries to massacre popular majorities, in El Salvador and in Iraq, because it is best for Reagan and Bush I and Bush II.

Good thing I'm not doing message for any primary races this cycle, I'd want to put a "Dirty Fucking Hippie" sticker on the microphone and have my guy or gal rework JFK's "I'm proud to be a liberal" speach, substituting "DFH" for "liberal", and let the other primary campaigns message on how wise and foresighted the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld/Bremer/rinse-and-repeat team are, except for the one little thing they overlooked, the plainly marked "correction" knob on the Totally Awesome Adventure Machine. The wee little knobiee that they have screwed themselves up to the sticking point and are now, bravely prepared to turn in the proper direction, unlike the DFHs, who've gotten everything wrong this time, just like they did the last time.