It's the electors, stupid...
I've pretty much pledged to stay out of the remaining fight for the Democratic nomination and thus will focus my political energy on November. So while my pointing out the latest Rasmussen poll of Florida may appear to focus on "electability" in November, it's actually about what happens in Denver in August:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows John McCain holding a six-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton and an even larger lead - sixteen percentage points - over Barack Obama. It's McCain 49% Clinton 43% and McCain 53% Obama 37%. This dynamic is the opposite of what we have found in most other states where Obama typically outperforms Clinton in general election match-ups.The Florida results for a Clinton-McCain match-up are fairly similar to other battleground states -- the race is competitive, Clinton does better among women than men, and McCain leads among unaffiliated voters.
However, the poll contains hints that suggest the controversy over Florida's convention delegates may be hurting Obama. Most notably, just 55% of Sunshine State Democrats say they would vote for Obama over McCain. Thirty-one percent (31%) say they would vote for McCain. These results are especially striking given that Obama leads McCain among unaffiliated voters in the state.
As Eric pointed out a few weeks back in this post, while we all like to believe every Democratic vote counts, the fact is, only those in a handful of states will determine the next occupant of the Oval Office come January, 2009. One of those states is Florida. If McCain carries Florida, then the Democratic nominee will have to carry both Ohio and Pennsylvania. It would be much easier to have Florida "in play", tying up GOP resources, rather than placing it firmly in the red column.
Yes, Florida and Michigan were bad boys - they didn't play by the rules set up by Governor Dean, and he was right to give them a big time out. And, if the Obama victory trend continues, the Credentials Committee in Denver will have slightly more Obama supporters seated than Clinton supporters, providing Obama with the might to deny Clinton of the majority of delegates she won in both primaries. But Obama should urge his supporters on that committee to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates, even if it makes his coronation more difficult. Come November, we need every Democratic vote in those handful of states. Is he leader enough to think about what he can do for his Party, not for what his Party can do for him?
Comments
So what if Michigan and Florida held their primaries earlier than expected. The delegates should be seated now that the race is close.
Besides, Obama turned his "nose up in the air" in those states. He should, like you said, in the interest of unity, agree to get the Clinton delegates seated. After all, if one wants to be technical, Obama got one more delegate in the Nevada caucus than Clinton did--even though it wasn't "fair". So it seems that two can play at this game and it is going to be a horse race to the convention. Even Edwards is being courted and getting back into the delegate count. He's got 25 delegates. The super delegates are now going to come into play. After March 4th, we'll see what happens. I happen to be a Clinton supporter, and as such, want to see a fair primary season for all concerned.
Posted by: Steve Plonk | February 20, 2008 04:35 PM
Steve,
Edwards has 26 pledged (FL and MI sanctioned) and 39 pledged (no sanctions) delegates.
The Nevada result was correct under party rules. The number of delegates is set by the prior cycle participation. The NV director for the Obama campaign erred in failing to compete effectively in some parts of the state, resulting in a greater head count (which will affect the apportionment of delegates in the '12 cycle) and fewer actual delegates won.
We've similar rules in Maine.
There are less loaded turns of phrase than "turn up nose at" when discussing which campaigns placed their candidate's name on the Michigan ballot. The Biden, Edwards and Richardson campaigns also followed the DNC determination of 1 December 2007, the DNC, that the date of Michigan's 15 January 2008 primary violated party rules and has decided to strip the state of its delegation. The determination was made official on 5 January 2008.
Then there is the New Hampshire delegation ... to seat, or not to seat.
Of course you have a primary preference, and we do not. Fair is somewhat subjective, and we're concerned that all the probable outcomes are not competitive in November.
Posted by: ebw | February 20, 2008 05:23 PM