Wampum

Qui Bono?

I've thought a bit about the universe of possible authors of the successful political assassination operation conducted on December 27th at Liaquat Bagh, in Rawalpindi. I've gotten mail from members of the Hizb ut Tahrir which I've organized here. The Hizb position is that elections as practiced are inherently flawed, a position shared by Ralph Nader, John Edwards, and just about everyone aware of the role of overt institutional influences -- corporate, religious, military, etc., and covert institutional influences -- criminal organizations, foreign agencies, etc -- have in determining the "correct" outcomes of one-person-one-vote contests, See in particular the Political Program of the Hizb ut-Tahrir, which dates from the attempt by Uzbeck Dictator Islam Karimov and Bush ally to award blame for three coordinated explosions that took place in Tashkent in August, 2004.

So, probably not the Hizb or any Hizb-like movement, even those with operational abilities.

Then there's the AQP theory, denied by Baitullah Mehsud as soon as the government's finger pointed towards "Al Qaeda", whether domestic or foreign. Benazir's brothers operated in the same area with the same local tribal vs Punjabi political alignments, from Soviet-occupied Afganistan against the Zia ul Haq dictatorship, the prior incantation of military rule in Pakistan. Assassination of the opposition PPP candidate (or the PML-N candidate) would not weaken the Musharaff dictatorship, unless of course, the "AQP" could hang responsibility on the government or its political supporters -- or Inter-Services Intelligence operatives.

So, probably not the AQP or any AQP-like movement with operational abilities.

In fact, individual assassination isn't going to change the balance of forces overtly organized as political parties with political platforms and material interests, as there is always a "next in succession".

Random shooters don't manage two hitters plus enough bodies to flood the killing zone and block escape by the target vehicle.

So, what organization is capable, and can expect a better outcome from assassination prior to the election than from allowing the target to survive the election and re-acquire limited command and control over the state?

From Dawn's January 2nd edition:

Benazir was set to file dossier on rigging
KARACHI, Jan 1: Benazir Bhutto was poised to reveal proof the night she was assassinated that the Election Commission and a shadowy spy agency were seeking to rig the elections, a top aide said on Tuesday.

Senator Latif Khosa, who authored a 160-page dossier with Ms Bhutto documenting rigging tactics, said they ranged from intimidation to fake ballots, and were in some cases unwittingly funded by US aid.

Ms Bhutto had been due to give the report to two visiting US lawmakers over a dinner on Dec 27, the day she was killed in a gun-and-bomb attack.

"The state agencies are manipulating the whole process," Mr Khosa, a top aide of Ms Bhutto and head of the PPP election monitoring unit, told Reuters.

"There is rigging by the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence), the Election Commission and the previous government, which is still continuing to hold influence. They were on the rampage."

President Pervez Musharraf's spokesman Rashid Qureshi dismissed the claim as "ridiculous".

"It makes one laugh," he said. "The president has said a free, fair, transparent and peaceful election is essential, which forms part of his overall strategy for transforming Pakistan into a fully democratic (nation)."

"Benazir's coming back to Pakistan was part of a national reconciliation ordinance," he added. "Take it from me, it's going to be perhaps the best election that Pakistan has ever had."

Mr Khosa said the report, entitled "Yet another stain on the face of democracy", details how the spy agency was planning to issue 25,000 pre-stamped ballots for each of 108 candidates for NA seats in Punjab from the party that backs President Musharraf and formed his government. "They have used intimidatory tactics, they intimidated the returning officers into rejecting nomination papers ... they prevented candidates from submitting their nomination papers," Mr Khosa said. "This happened in Balochistan and in the other central areas of Pakistan. It happened in Sindh." --Reuters

And of course it has happened in Baluchistan and Sindh so its not a laughing matter. See Barnett R. Rubins lengthy piece Pakistan's Power Puzzle (With Corrections from Comments), which I linked to yesterday, from mid-point to end, on how to rig sufficiently to obtain the military balance-of-power between several political parties. Musharaff can't be unaware of how Bhutto "lost" the elections in October 1990 to Nawaz Sharif.

McClatchy is running a piece that is surprising to find in the US media market. Commentary: Sins of omission and sins of commission haunt Bush in Pakistan, by Joseph L. Galloway. Via Susie.

That's part 1. There's a part 2.