Tom Allen files with the FEC
I used to run into Tom Allen occasionally at RSVP on Forest Avenue. Being polite, I saved my "You screwed up on the Syria Sanctions vote" of the day for whatever intern handled the phones at his Portland constituency office. We've all been waiting for the opportunity to replace Susan Collins with someone with a lot more spunk and moxie. We contributed to and worked for Chellie Pingree's run against Susan Collins in the '00 cycle, and Mark Lawrence's run against Olympia Snowe in the '02 cycle.
In Q107 Susan raised $800k and Tom raised $400k, to give him $800K to Susan's $1,200K, so he is competitive, in the national dollars race.
The Maine mind share races isn't quite the same thing, and that concerns me. MaryEllen FitzGerald's polling firm did a phone poll of 600 likely voters -- 38% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 26% unenrolled -- shows Tom with 54% and 45% in the Democratic and unenrolled respondents and Susan with 85% and 65% in the Republican and unenrolled respondents, respectively. Polling data 18 months out isn't golden, but the 25% lead meme is out there.
It will be easy to win the general in the ME-01. No fundamental change from the campaigns Jess Knox has worked on, and is now responsible for, as director of the MDP's Coordinated Campaign. But that's not the whole race, and Tom has to win in the ME-02 as well. Tom will need the best Field effort Maine Dems have seen since ... Susan won her squeaker in the '96 cycle. If he's not technically competitive in the ME-02, from canvas and voter ID all the way down to voting the assisteds, the absentees, and the GOOV, and ahead of Michaud's second sleep-walk to re-election, we may be listening to Susan's treacle-for-kids on the issues and votes until 2012.
But overwhelming turnout by D's in Maine alone is insufficient. The unenrolled have to be decided before they can be voted. Again, the ME-01 is a snap, its the ME-02 that isn't. Tom will need the best Political effort Maine Dems have seen since ... Susan won her squeaker in the '96 cycle. Susan's strengths -- Homeland Security, Lieberman bipartisanship, the BRAC/BIW failures repackaged as "wins", all have to be transformed into weaknesses. A campaign based on Iraq as-read alone, on Susan the Bush/Cheney enabler, and on any legislator's record while in the minority in a partisan-to-the-point-of-Constitutional-dysfunction simply isn't enough. Tom isn't Bernie and the seat isn't open.
I've got a pile of material, I guess I'll update it and toss it over the transom. The specific feed for our ME-01 primary (Chellie Pingree, Mike Brennan, Mark Lawrence, Jill Duson, Adam Cote, all very good, and the utterly worthless Ethan Strimling) and the senate general is ... Primary season comes to Maine.
I see Tom has moved his campaign digs from the impossible-to-park Preble to middle Forest, where parking is possible, and its wicked closer to RSVP.
To contribute to Tom's campaign, or volunteer, click on the link to the campaign website.
