Wampum

[This was written on September 25th, 2004, and is reposted today. ebw]

cease-fire

a cease-fire supports our troops.

a cease-fire ends planned manuvers that are likely to result in battle, and removes the americans from the iraqi domestic calculation of the balance of forces. it isn't peace, but it is better than what we have, because we don't know who the real rulers of iraq are, or will be.

as long as our troops are proping up some party or another, they will be the "buffer" between the militia of a party that can't hold onto civil government by its own organic means, and the other militias that are no worse qualified.

we cannot know how the cities of iraq will be self-governed until we remove our troops from the cities of iraq, and we should have some confidence that modern iraq is not feudal afganistan, and that self-government is a real possibility.

cease-fires have been tried before, and some have worked. the northern no-fly zone and the autonomous kurdish region was a multi-year, us-enforced cease-fire between iraqi factions. the southern no-fly zone has been another multi-year, us-enforced cease-fire between iraqi factions. the british army area of operations in southern iraq has been a reduced-fire between iraqi factions that has endured for over a year.

there will be "cheating", there always is, and our own forces will be "cheating" by training, refitments, and surveillance. our basic choice is present combat or deferred combat, with the possibility that combat deferred may be combat minimized, or even defused.

all-party talks

all-party talks support our troops.

the cairo conference on 23 - 25 november will not include any members of the political parties associated the militias presently conducting military operations independently from our troops. these militias may be targeted by our troops for offensive operations, or they may conducting offensive operations that do not involve our troops.

it really doesn't matter. these political parties and their associated militias are the independent actors, the agents of change in iraq. no peace process that does not include them can lead to the conversion of offensive militia operations to civil armistice, except through offensive militia operations.

undersigned
thomas eric brunner-williams, portland maine