Iranian votes (updates)
The "FYN?" SMS message appears to have converged to "Y" during the quiet period and it is possible that Moeen may place 2nd, or even 1st, over Rafsanjani. That would be a mega-wow, enabled by the Downing Street Memos -- since an attack by the US is made less likely the DSM's outing, making Rafsanjani no longer the prudent choice in a defense scenario, but something of an encumberance in a more domestic political context.
The least of the conservative dwarves -- the twice promissed and passed over guy dropped out Thursday morning, and the Conservatives may consolidate around Qualibaf (he shoots students and horses).
Updates as they come in.
Remember, this was the next American War, scheduled for 2005 up until Rep. Conyers bit down on the DSM bone.
Update: It is Rafsanjani and Moeen. Recall that Moeen polled at 4%, at the same level as each of the four Conservative dwarves, and Rafsanjani at three times that only eight weeks ago.
Update: Exit polls and candidates may not always be precient. IRNA reported from the headquarters that of the 29,317,042 votes cast Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani and Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad drew the most votes and will contest in a run-off election on Friday.
The number of votes cast for each candidate is the following:
1. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani 6,159,452
2. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 5,710,354
3. Mehdi Karroubi 5,066,316
4. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf 4,075,189
5. Mostafa Moin 3,054,204
6. Ali Larijani 1,740,162
7. Mohsen Mehralizadeh 1,289,223
The report added that over 1,221,940 ballets were invalidated.
Out of a total of 26,484,370 votes counted throughout the country by 15:45 hours Saturday, Rafsanjani and Karroubi have gained the highest number of votes.
The following table shows the latest vote count announced by the elections headquarters of the Interior Ministry Saturday afternoon:
1. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani 5,474,885
2. Mehdi Karroubi 4,924,731
3. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 4,810,079
4. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf 3,766,444
5. Mostafa Moin 3,635,990
6. Ali Larijani 1,609,029
7. Mohsen Mehralizadeh 1,185,797
Out of a total of 23,592,703 votes counted throughout the country by 13:45 Saturday, Rafsanjani and Karroubi have gained the highest number of votes.
1. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani 5,017,283
2. Mehdi Karroubi 4,686,642
3. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 4,396,923
4. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf 3,522,228
5. Mostafa Moin 3,364,979
6. Ali Larijani 1,636,779
7. Mohsen Mehralizadeh 1,072,776
Out of a total of 19,708,424 votes counted throughout the country by 10 am Saturday, Rafsanjani and Karroubi have gained the highest number of votes.
1. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani 4,289,973
2. Mehdi Karroubi 4,086,709
3. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 3,449,697
4. Mostafa Moin 2,846,216
5. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf 2,738,432
6. Ali Larijani 1,365,279
7. Mohsen Mehralizadeh 932,118
During the 7th Majlis electin crisis 15 months ago, when the Guardian Council disqualified nearly all reform candidates, then-President of the Majlis, Mahdi Karroubi said «Etes-vous loyaux à l'égard de l'Islam si vous priez quotidiennement mais que vous bafouez ensuite les droits du peuple?» [Are you loyal to Islam if you pray daily but flaut the rights of the people?]. Karroubi did something else laudible, he called for investigating the series of murders of journalists, in the Majlis.
Update: IRNA is reporting as "URGENT" that unofficially that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Conservative) has edged out Mahdi Karroubi (Independent), so the run-off will be between Rafsanjani (Pragmatic) and one of the four dwarfs.
One man, more than any other outside of Iran, is responsible for the elevated turn-out by threatened voters who turn to the Conservatives ... George "Loose Lips" Bush. He may get his 3rd war after all.
Update: Both Karroubi and Moeen have made statements on irregularities in the vote counting. The late-count catapult-to-second of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the two-years-from obscurity appointed mayor of Tehran, is a potential blot on the election process.
Written by Eric, using MB's lovely zd7000.