Spin, spin, spin,
Knowing that the numbers on durable good were coming out this morning, I headed directly to the Census Bureau website [pdf] to get the semi-spin-free scoop. Unfortunately, at -0.5%, the drop in new orders for big ticket items was even worse that the market expected. So imagine my surprise when I saw this headline and associated article over at Google.news:
Durable goods orders rise 2.3%, ex-transportation
WASHINGTON (AP) Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket goods dropped 0.5% in August, largely weighed down by a sharp decline in demand for commercial airplanes.
The Commerce Department reported Friday that orders for durable goods costly manufactured products expected to last at least three years declined by 0.5%, following a 1.8% advance in July.
The manufacturing picture, however, looked better when volatile transportation equipment, such as airplanes, was excluded: Orders rose by a solid 2.3% in August. That compared with a scant 0.1% gain in July and marked the biggest increase since March.
When all categories of goods were included, durable goods orders rose 1.8% in July.
First, a correction for AP: If you're going to use the revised total number of 1.8% (up from 1.7%), then you should also use the revised "excluding transportation" number, now 0.0%, versus the previously reported +0.1%
Second, while AP heralds the increase in non-transportation spending, they bury another important detail from the report in the last paragraph:
Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft -- which economists use as a gauge of business spending -- fell 0.5%.
So essentially, all this cheerleading by AP is over an increase in government spending on the war on terrah. The fact that businesses cut back on their purchases was merely a footnote.
As a check on AP's non-biased reporting, I sent out the Googling monkeys into last month's media archives. Since last month's positive durable goods numbers were also heavily skewed by a huge increase (+104%) in aircraft orders, I expected to see this headline:
Durable goods orders flat, ex-transportation
Imagine my surprise to instead find this article and headline from AP:
Durable goods orders up in July
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Factory orders for costly manufactured goods in July recorded the biggest gain in four months.
The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that orders for durables goods -- big-ticket items expected to last at least three years -- rose 1.7 percent in July from the previous month. Helping was a stronger demand for airplanes, machinery and communications equipment.
Now, to be fair, the article did mention the discrepancy between total orders and those excluding transportation... in the 14th (out of 15) paragraph.
I wonder what the consumer confidence number would currently be if the media reported the actual news. Guess I shouldn't hold my breath in anticipation of that ever happening.
Update: In it's most recent (12:22pm) article on the subject, AP changed it's headline to read:
Orders for Durable Goods Fell 0.5 Percent
