April 3, 2003, 1301hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow -
During the last and today early morning the coalition continued
its advance toward Baghdad that it had begun three days
ago. Units of the 3rd mechanized Infantry Division, failing
to quickly capture the town of Al-Khindiya, blockaded it
with a part of their forces and moved around the town from
the east to reach Al-Iskanderiya by the morning. It is
know clear right now whether the US troops were able to
take the town of Al-Musaib or if they went around it as
well. The overall [coalition] progress in this direction
was about 25 kilometers during the past 24 hours.
This thrust came as a surprise to the Iraqi command. The
Iraqi defense headquarters around Karabela remained deep
behind the forward lines of the advancing US brigades.
Due to the intensive aerial and artillery strikes the Iraqi
headquarters [in Karabela] lost most of its communication
facilities and has partially lost control of the troops.
As the result the Iraqi defense units in the line of the
coalition attack became disorganized and were unable to
offer effective resistance. During the night fighting the
Iraqi forces in this area were pushed from their defensive
positions and withdrew toward Baghdad. The Iraqi losses
were up to 100 killed and up to 300 captured. The US troops
destroyed or captured up to 70 Iraqi tanks and APCs.
Currently the Iraqi command is rushing to create a new
line of defense 20-30 kilometers south of Baghdad. The
US losses in this attack were 3 armored vehicles, up to
8 killed and wounded.
Late night on April 2 east of Karabela a unit from the
3rd Mechanized Infantry Division went off-course and ran
into an artillery ambush after moving too close to the
Iraqi positions. In the resulting firefight the US forces
have lost no less than 8 armored vehicles and, according
to the Iraqi reports, at least 25 US troops were killed
or wounded.
In the town of Al-Kut US Marine units were able to capture
a bridge across the Tigris; but they were unable to capture
the entire town and currently fighting is continuing in
the residential districts. No fewer than 3 US soldiers
were killed and up to 12 were wounded in this area during
the past 24 hours. The US troops are reporting 50 killed
and 120 captured Iraqi soldiers.
The coalition was able to make serious progress to the
south of Al-Kut. After quickly taking the town of An-nu-Manyah
the US forces have set up a bridge across the Tigris and
immediately proceeded to transfer the Marine units to the
left bank. There is a highway going from An-nu-Manyah to
Baghdad along the left bank of the Tigris. No more large
populated areas are located along the highway and the attacking
forces may be able to come within 15-20 kilometers of Baghdad
as early as tonight.
The blockade of An-Najaf is continuing. Numerous attempts
by the [coalition] troops to reach the center of the town
have failed after being met by Iraqi fire. At least fire
[coalition] soldiers have been wounded and one is missing.
The situation around An-Divania remains unclear. Heavy
fighting in this area is continuing since yesterday. The
US field commanders have requested artillery and aviation
support on several occasions and have reported "strong
counterattacks by the enemy." It has been determined
that by the evening of April 2 the command of the US 101st
Airborne Division ordered its troops to withdraw from the
town in order to create some space between its forces and
the Iraqis to allow for artillery and aerial strikes. The
overall US losses in this area during the past two days
are up to 15 killed and around 35 wounded. At the same
time the US commanders are reporting "hundreds of
killed Iraqis; about 50 Iraqis - some of them wearing civilian
clothes - have been captured by the coalition. There has
been a report of another [coalition] helicopter loss in
this area.
Resistance is also continuing in An-Nasiriya. The town's
garrison has been fighting for the past ten days and continues
to hold its positions on the left bank of the Euphrates.
During the past day there has been a reduction in the intensity
of the Iraqi resistance. However, the US commanders at
the coalition headquarters believe that this is due to
the Iraqis trying to preserve their ammunition, which is
by no means unlimited. According to one of the US officers
at the coalition headquarters elements of the [Iraqi] 11th
Infantry Division remain in control on the left bank of
the Euphrates. "...Resilience of this unquestionably
brave enemy is worth respect. Four time we offered them
to lay down their arms and surrender, but they continue
resisting like fanatics..." [Reverse-translated from
Russian] During the past night 1 US soldier was killed
and 2 more were wounded in firefights in this area.
Another attempt by the British to penetrate Iraqi defenses
near Basra has failed. Up to 2 battalions of the British
16th Air Assault brigade reinforced with tanks attempted
to break through the Iraqi defenses last night northwest
of the Maakil airport along the Al-Arab River. Simultaneously
from the southwest at As-Zubair another 2 marine infantry
battalions made an attempt to enter the area of Mahallat-es-Zubair,
but were met with heavy fire and withdrew after a four-hour-long
battle. The Iraqis have reported 2 destroyed British tanks,
5 APCs and no fewer than 30 British troops killed. However,
the British commanders are reporting 4 lost armored vehicles
and 5 killed. Additionally, Iraqi air defenses have shot
down an F-18 fighter-bomber of the town. The radio surveillance
units reported the loss of another plane to the north of
Baghdad. It is not known whether this plane was shot down
or crashed after losing control due to a technical malfunction.
As we can see, the coalition command is continuing with
its "march on Baghdad" tactics. In the course
of their advance the coalition troops are moving around
the primary centers of the Iraqi defense and blockade them
leaving the rest of the work to aviation and artillery.
The very near future will show how effective this tactics
really is. So far, according to intelligence reports, more
than 50,000 Iraqi troops continue fighting behind the coalition
forward lines at Karabela alone. No fewer than 5,000 Iraqis
are defending An-Najaf and An-Divania. Experts estimate
that the total number of Iraqis fighting behind coalition
front approaches 90,000-100,000 regular army troops and
militia.
Under such circumstances the coalition has two options:
it can either try to quickly capture Baghdad, thus leaving
the Iraqi garrisons in the occupied territories with no
reason to continue with their resistance; or the coalition
troops can dig in around Baghdad and prepare for the final
assault while "cleaning up" the captured territory.
The latter seems more likely as the coalition can use the
fresh troops arriving now to Kuwait for these "clean
up" operations. This will also allow these troops
to gain the valuable combat experience fighting the weakened
enemy before the assault on Baghdad.
Analysts believe that this war will cause a review of
the role of precision-guided munitions (PGM) on the modern
battlefield. Already the results of using PGM in Iraq cast
doubt on the effectiveness of PGM in woodland areas and
in cross-country terrain. Under such conditions the main
objective becomes not to hit the target with the first
shot but to locate, identify and to track the target.
Reviewing ground operations [in Iraq] analysts conclude
that the desert terrain and the resulting inability of
the Iraqis to fight outside of towns and villages provide
the coalition with its main strategic advantage. Complete
air dominance allows [the coalition troops] locating and
engaging Iraqi positions and armor at maximum distance
using precision-guided munitions not available to the Iraqis,
while remaining outside of the range of the Iraqi weapons.
Considering the course of this war and the tactics used
by the coalition, [Russian military] analysts find this
tactics to be far removed from the realities of modern
warfare and designed exclusively against a technologically
much weaker opponent. Such tactics is unimaginable on the
European theater of combat with its woodlands and cross-country
terrain. Foreseeing the possibility of a future military
standoff between the US and North Korea the analysts are
certain that the US cannot hope for a military victory
on the Korean Peninsula without the use of nuclear weapons.
(source: iraqwar.ru, 04-03-03, translated by Venik)
