March 23, 2003, 1200hrs MSK (GMT +3), Moscow - The situation
in southern Iraq can be characterized as unstable and controversial.
Heavy fighting is taking place in the Umm-Qasr-An-Nasiriya-Basra
triangle. Satellite and signals intelligence show that
both sides actively employ armored vehicles in highly mobile
attacks and counterattacks. Additionally, fighting is continuing
near the town of An-Najaf.
As of this morning the Iraqi defenses along the Basra
- An-Nasiriya - An-Najaf line are holding.
Following the yesterday's Iraqi counter strike near An-Nasiriya
the US command was forced to halt the advance of its troops
toward An-Najaf and to redirect a portion of available
tank forces to cover the flanks of the 3rd Motorized Infantry
Division attacked by the Iraqis. By late evening yesterday
constant air strikes and increasing strength of American
tank attacks forced the Iraqis to withdraw their troops
back to eastern parts of Nasiriya, across the Euphrates
river, were they assumed defensive positions along the
river bank.
During the last day of fighting the Iraqis lost up to
20 tanks, up to 2 artillery batteries, and around 100 troops.
Yesterday's US losses are estimated at 10 destroyed or
disabled tanks, several armored personnel carriers and
up to 15 troops killed in action.
By 0700hrs MSK today the fighting at Nasiriya stopped.
Currently both sides are rushing to regroup their forces
and to get them ready for more fighting in this area.
Near Basra the advance of the coalition forces came to
a complete halt at the near approaches to the western and
southwestern outskirts of the city. The US and British
forces are rushing to settle into defensive positions after
failing to surround Basra. Eastern and northern approaches
to Basra remain open and under control of the Iraqi forces.
More controversial reports are coming in from the town
of Umm-Qasr. As early as three days ago the US command
has declared that the coalition forces have captured this
small port town and the adjacent oil terminal. However,
throughout these three days heavy fighting continued in
the town and in the suburbs. The US forces are still unable
to break the defense put up by the Iraqi 45th brigade defending
the town.
Moreover, several counterattacks by the Iraqi forces at
Umm Qasr have pushed the US forces out of some part of
the town. During last night the Iraqi 45th brigade was
reinforced by a special tank battalion of the 51st Infantry
Division. The reinforcement included up to 600 troops and
10 tanks. However, the coalition forces were also strengthened
overnight with two tank battalions and self-propelled artillery.
As of 1000hrs MSK this morning heavy fighting continues
at Umm Qasr.
According to intercepted radio communications, the British
marine infantry units in defensive positions on the Fao
peninsula have requested emergency air and artillery support
after being attacked by superior Iraqi forces. So far it
is not clear whether this was an actual counterattack by
the Iraqis or just a nuisance attack. The British commanders
report that their positions are being attacked by up to
a regiment of infantry supported by tanks.
Other intercepted radio traffic suggests that, as the
British and US forces bend the Basra - An-Najaf line of
defense, the Iraqi command will pull back its main forces
to the Al-Ammara - Ad-Divaniya line. Already most of the
Iraqi forces in this region have moved to the Al-Ammara
- Ad-Divaniya positions and within the next 48 hours defense
of Basra and Fao peninsula will be reduced to just the
local units and garrisons. The goal of the remaining forces
will be to tie up superior coalition forces in these areas.
According to radio intercepts during today's night the
coalition begun airdropping troops in northern Iraq from
airfields in Turkey and Jordan. These forces are being
used to form mobile strike groups in northern Kurdistan
and near the western-Iraqi town of Er-Rutbah. Already up
to 5,000 coalition troops have been delivered to northern
Kurdistan and up to 1000 paratroopers have landed near
Er-Rutbah.
Russian military intelligence has uncovered a range of
facts pointing to a separate arrangement between the top
leadership of Jordan and the US military command. Officially
Jordan has declared its neutrality in the war against Iraq
and refused to provide its airspace to the coalition aviation.
However, at the same time Jordan has allowed the anti-Iraq
coalition to place surveillance radars and radio reconnaissance
stations on its territory. Jordan has also allowed the
coalition to use its military airbases.
Available information indicates that coalition special
ops units, including up to 400 troops and their command
headquarters, have been deployed to the Jordanian Zarka
military base and to the home base of the Jordan's 71st
special ops brigade.
Reports that have surfaced in the media in the past 12
hours about the capture of a US special ops unit near Baghdad
are probably not true. It is likely that these reports
refer to the capture of coalition paratroopers yesterday
morning near the town of Akashat.
During the past 12 hours there has been a drop in intensity
of air strikes against Baghdad. Analysts attribute this
to the fact that most of available coalition air assets
are now deployed in support of ground forces. Intercepted
coalition radio traffic shows that most of the bombing
attacks against Baghdad are carried out by the US strategic
aviation and by sea-launched long-range cruise missiles.
So far the US was unable to destroy the air defense networks
in central Iraq. As before, the Iraqis continue to covertly
use their radars and SAM launchers on a limited bases while
employing a huge number of decoys designed to imitate radars.
The US was also unable to disrupt the central control
over the Iraqi army. The US command is forced to admit
that, despite the best efforts of the coalition aviation,
the Iraqi forces maintain high combat readiness and reliable
command and control structure.
[Russian] radio intercept units have reported the loss
of two coalition planes. One of the planes was a "Tornado" strike
aircraft and the other one was believed to be an F-16 fighter-bomber.
The F-16 was shot down over Baghdad and is believed to
have crash-landed in a desert in southern Iraq. A coalition
search-and-resque unit was immediately dispatched to this
area.
A CIA referent in the combat area Col. Davis (likely to
be a pseudonym) and the US DoD Defense Intelligence Agency
(DIA) regional director were demoted due to their inadequate
performance in estimating the strength of Iraq's forces
and their combat readiness.
Eyewitnesses report that Gen. Tommy Franks looks extremely
exhausted and irritated. Gen. Franks has cancelled the
meeting with journalists planned for this morning.
Work is paralyzed at the coalition press-center in Kuwait.
Journalists are not able to get any information except
for the hourly press communique from the command. A variety
of reasons are cited by the military to reduce the number
of trips into the combat zone for the journalists. All
reports coming from the journalists attached to the coalition
units are now being strictly censored by the military.
All live broadcasts, as those seen during the first day
of the war, are now strictly prohibited by a special order
from the coalition command. The required time delay between
the time news video footage was shot and the time it can
be broadcast has been increased to a minimum of 4 hours.
More accurate information became available regarding the
losses sustained by both sides during the first three days
of the war. The coalition has officially acknowledged the
deaths of some 25 servicemen. However, intercepted radio
communications show that the actual number of coalition
casualties is at least 55-70 troops killed and no less
than 200 wounded. The emergency dispatch of the "Comfort" medical
ship closer to the combat zone is a direct indication of
serious casualties. The "Comfort" is expected
to arrive to the southern tip of the Fao peninsula later
tonight.
It is more difficult to evaluate the losses of the Iraqi
especially due to the air strikes. On the south front Iraqi
losses are estimated at 400-600 killed, 1,500 wounded and
up to 300 captured.
(source: iraqwar.ru, 03-23-03, translated by Venik)
