March 19, 2003, 0403hrs MSK
(GMT +3), Moscow - Based on the intercepted US military communications
the Russian military intelligence believes that the US
command is attempting to create a false impression of a
pending massive ground attack on Basra.
Russian Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) believes that
all the talk about the attack on Basra is nothing more
than disinformation designed compliment a diversionary
strike to pin down large Iraqi forces around this city.
The main thrust of the US ground attack, Russian military
thinks, will bypass Basra from the west splitting the Iraqi
defenses through An Nasiriya (population under 500,000)
and Al' Amarah (population under 500,000) at the end reaching
the Hor-Es-Savakiya lake and forming an external encirclement
facing Basra.
From An Nasiriya the invaders will advance along the Euphrates
river reaching the Habbaniyah lake and capturing the city
of Al Habbaniyah (population under 20,000), thus creating
a solid front facing Baghdad from the south and partially
reaching around Baghdad from southwest.
The encircled Basra forces will be contained using mass
air strikes and ground troops to cut off the Iraqis in
Basra from their main forces. The US command believes that
the air bombardment will weaken and disorganize the Basra
defenders and allow the US ground troops to further split
these Iraqi forces into smaller pockets of resistance.
During these operations the US command plans to rely to
a large extent on tactical airborne units dropped immediately
behind the forward lines of Iraqi defenses to disorganize
and to demoralize them, as well as to capture pockets of
territory and hold them until the arrival of the main forces.
A particularly important role in these operations will
be played by combat aviation as the primary means of supporting
ground troops and containing the enemy.
Already around 30 diversionary and reconnaissance units
have been airdropped in Iraq by the US and Britain. Their
primary task of these forces is provide targeting information
for the upcoming initial waves of air strikes. Available
information suggests that the first air strike may take
place as early as Thursday morning 1.5-2 hours before the
end of Washington's ultimatum. However, the sand storm
currently raging over Iraq may force the US command to
delay the planned attack by one or two days.
(source: iraqwar.ru, 03-19-03, translated by Venik)
