|
March 17, 2003, 1848hrs MSK (GMT
+3), Moscow -
During the March 14, 2002, emergency meeting the top [Russian]
military commanders discussed the situation around Iraq. Reports
were presented by the chief of Main Intelligence Directorate
of the General Staff (GRU GSh) Col. Gen. Valentine Korabelnikov
and the chief of Main Tactical Directorate of the General Staff
(GOU GSh) Col. Gen. Alexander Rukshin. The GRU report contained
information of the strength and composition of the US forces
and its allies as well as strength and composition of the Iraqi
forces.
According to Col. Gen. Korabelnikov beginning at 1200 on
Friday March 14 US forces operate in the high combat readiness
state and are capable of initiating combat operations 3-4
hours after they receive orders to such effect. All necessary
combat orders have been delivered to all levels of command
structure down to the battalion level commanders. The GRU chief reported that due to the current international
situation it is unlikely that the US will seek a vote in
the UN Security Council on the new Iraq resolution. Doing
so will inevitably lead to a failure to gain necessary support,
which is most undesirable for the US. Therefore, the Bush
administration will prefer to act using the previous UN resolution
as an excuse for starting the war. It seems likely that the combat operations will begin on
19-22 of March at around 2-4 am local time. In connection with these developments the GRU and General
Staff departments responsible for the Persian Gulf region
will go to a 24-hour mode of operation. All [Russian] electronic
reconnaissance brigades and divisions, intelligence agencies
based in regions neighboring the conflict zone, sea- and
space-based technical reconnaissance assets will be put on
full combat alert. The GOU GSh report provided an analysis of the Iraqi army's
defensive capabilities and possible scenarios of the war. The first phase of the operation will consist of a strategic
air operation which, according to the US command, will last
between 8 and 10 days. The goal of this operation will be
complete suppression of Iraqi air defenses, disruption of
command and control structures, destruction of main command
and communication centers, disruption of the main Iraqi forces,
destruction of the military infrastructure and defense industry
facilities. The first wave of the attack will consist of between 200-250
Tomahawk cruise missiles followed in 30-50 minutes by an
aircraft strike. The initial air attack will last up to six
hours. It will consist of around 2000 combat flights and
the launch of around 400 cruise missiles. During the next
five days it is planned to deliver at least two major air
strikes per day with a gradual shift toward sustain air operations
against newly discovered targets. After the first phase of the operation is complete the US
command plans to spend two more days for additional reconnaissance
and destruction of any new or remaining targets. After this
the available air assets will switched entirely to support
the ground forces. The total time for the operation against
Iraq is estimated by the US military planners to run between
15 and 21 days. According to Col. Gen. Rukshin it is unlikely that the first
phase of the US attack will be able to achieve its goals
and destroy most of the main Iraqi forces. This stage of
the operation is likely to take between three week and one-and-a-half
months. During that time the US command will put an emphasis
on the destruction of Iraq's top political and military leadership,
including Saddam Hussein. For this purpose the US plans to
use high-power aviation bombs capable of penetrating reinforced
underground facilities at great depth. Additionally, for
the first time the US plans to use tactical airborne troops
and special forces against Iraq's military and political
command sites. GOU GSh finds it possible that the military campaign against
Iraq will be considerably more difficult than expected by
the US military planners. The US troops may encounter determined
resistance from the Iraqi forces, which may lead to the slow
down and even complete halt of the attack and will force
the US to resume the mass bombing campaign. This will inevitably
prolong the war into the 2-3-month timeframe and possibly
longer. (source: iraqwar.ru, 03-17-03, translated by Venik) |
