Wampum

Lara Sucks

The following commentary on US v Lara was sent to Triballaw today with the following remark:

At last, somebody agrees with me...

Enjoy.

"Another Such Victory and We are Undone: A Call to an American Indian Declaration of Independence", Tulsa Law Journal, Vol. 40, 2005

BY: William C. Bradford, Indiana University School of Law

Document: Available from the SSRN Electronic Paper Collection:
http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract_id=589401

ABSTRACT:
U.S. v. Lara, hailed as a rare victory by proponents of Indian self-determination, is, under closer scrutiny, a Pyrrhic victory. Although the opinion upheld the essential power of Indian tribes to exercise criminal jurisdiction over non-member Indians, in so doing it granted opportunities and ammunition to opponents of the centuries-long struggle to defend what remains of Indian sovereignty against colonialism. Read with a jaundiced eye, Lara simply reaffirms contemporary judicial understandings of the doctrine of plenary power, long since remolded to connote not merely immunity from judicial review but rather absolute authority over Indian tribes, while telegraphing a message reminding readers that the radical readjustment of the metes and bounds of tribal sovereignty, to include the legislative disappearance of each and every Indian tribe and the abrogation of all four hundred plus Indian treaties, requires only that Congress choose to wield its unbridled legislative authority. If the right to make and enforce law is the most fundamental constituent of sovereignty, the sovereignty of Indian tribes, even post-Lara, survives at the sufferance of Congress, and history suggests that its future is grim.

Non-Indians, contemplating the political and legal enormity of the task of doing justice by the subjects of their policies of conquest, genocide, expropriation, legal assaults on tribal land and sovereignty, and forced political and economic dependency, have long bemoaned their Indian problem. At least it is a problem of their own making: Indians, by contrast, have been saddled with a Euro-American problem created, maintained, and, as Lara reveals, as yet unacknowledged by the political and legal system imposed and preserved by the might of the conqueror. Federal Indian law, not just willfully blind to crucial questions of agency and responsibility for past wrongs but often overtly racist, is the current instrument-of-choice whereby a non-Indian majority thwarts the assertion of sovereign tribal rights to engage in economic development projects resulting in the transborder movement of goods and persons, the production of significant wealth, or the expression of religious or cultural difference. Simply put, Lara, albeit a win for the good guys, offers nothing to contradict the lesson of more than two centuries of practice: federal Indian law, and in particular the doctrines of plenary power and stare decisis, is the thinnest of veneers for de facto rule over both tribes and individual Indians without restraint and across all manner of human affairs.

Even if federal Indian law was not already structurally incompatible with the self-determination of Indian nations and ready-made for exploitation by foes of sovereign governments within the external borders of the U.S., its interpretation, guided by the dominant philosophies of Western liberal jurisprudence and modern international legal positivism - the former distrustful of the Indian normative universe and thus bent upon remaking tribes to comport with a secular, individualist model of governance; the latter unwilling to recognize tribes as subjects of law and as bearers of natural legal rights actionable in domestic and international courts - would prove hostile, and perhaps fatal, to territorially-based Indian sovereignty. Even under the moderating influence of the most sympathetic members of the non-political branch, judicial review of questions of federal Indian law, on balance, has been an engine of the destruction of tribal self-determination since the founding of the United States. Plenary power and Indian sovereignty are mutually exclusive, and Lara only partially and temporarily obscures the existential reality that, for Indians, federal Indian law is an evil legal system. Rather than celebrate Lara, Indians should probe deeper and ask themselves how long before Congress fixes it and divests tribes of non-member Indian criminal jurisdiction, whether they intend to mount an effective defense against the last vestiges of their judicial sovereignty, what instruments of power - legal, political, and moral - they can marshal in support of this mission, and whether their right to self-determine can be meaningfully exercised in continued association with the United
States.

Part I of this Article briefly sketches the ongoing historical process whereby tribal sovereignty, once accorded great deference by the international community, has been incrementally denatured and corroded by federal Indian law. Part II situates Lara within this history and reframes the decision as a Pyrrhic victory for Indian tribal sovereignty. Part III defends the premise that federal Indian law and its interpretation and application in courts of the United States is an irremediably evil legal system utterly inconsistent with contemporary understandings of the natural right to self-determination. Part IV propounds an alternative legal theory, rooted in natural law and partly reflected in the international indigenous rights regime, that substantiates the right of Indian tribes to a quantum of self-determination incompatible with continued political association with the United States. Part V elaborates and defends an American Indian Declaration of Independence as the legitimate expression of the natural legal right of Indian peoples to self-determination and as a rejoinder to Lara and the philosophical and historical foundation upon which it rests. Finally, Part VI examines and rejects alternate proposals for the realization of Indian self-determination that stop short of secession.

Support Betty Castor for the Senate in Florida

A few days ago I put up the post on the telco and data outages caused by Ivan. I had an ulterior purpose. I made it available for a subsequent post, possibly on ... some other web log, which would explain that the outage actually has taken hundreds of thousands of dollars, maybe even a million dollars, in event coordinated contributions that would, had Ivan not interveaned, have been made by telephone to Betty Castor's campaign for the Senate seat vacated by Bob Graham. Personally I'm rather fond of retiring Senator Bob Graham. He was the first of the primary candidates to put out a real economic reconstruction plan, and as an individual with a calling to public service, his working any job is about as far from a life of priviledge as any. He is also one of the few men or women in public life to have called the Bush spade a spade.

However, that post hasn't happened, and rather than waiting any longer for what may not happen I'm asking wampum's readers to pick up the following gif and the surrounding html and put it in your blogs so that your readers will see it, and contribute to Betty Castor's campaign, and ask your readers to contribute to Betty Castor's campaign. Here's the gif-as-rendered:

And here is the html you can use:


<center>
<a href="https://secure2.convio.net/bcs/site/Donation?ACTION=SHOW_DONATION_OPTIONS&CAMPAIGN_ID=1102&JServSessionIdr006=5m95s6iau1.app1a">
<img alt="betty-castor.gif" src="http://wampum.wabanaki.net/archives/betty-castor.gif" width="253" height="138" border="0" /></a>
</center>


If you want to pick up the betty-castor.gif image used here, and link to it locally to your blog, feel free. I lifted it from Betty's website and you can get it there also. I've forgotten what the gif was called in that server's context, but you'll find it -- its her banner.

Now here's the really important part. Because polling places at schools all over Florida are wrecked and voters will have to vote at impromptu venues, most not even known now, at D-Day-minus-36, and voters themselves are dislocated, the absentee, targeting, tracking, and GOTV parts of the campaign are absurdly important. While most of the political world is blowing money through the hands of media consultants and into the welcoming hands of ABC/NBC/CBS and cable, the Castor campaign knows that ground-is-everything and your money will go to real live Dems walking precincts and recovering the vote we need -- to boots-on-the-ground -- both to put the better candidate in the Senate, and to put 27 electoral votes on the blue side of the tote board.

This is the real deal. Your money won't be pissed off in the air. Democracy isn't a deoderant. Give. Because others can't, because of Ivan, and because others won't.

Thank you all very, very much.

Parkfield quake

NANOG reports a richter 6.0 with 47 afterquakes 160 miles south of SFO airport... Looks like Parkfield. Updates as they come in. Recomputed to 5.9. I've driven through the area all my pre-Maine life. Not a lot to damage, but it is on the San Andreas so ... one pays attention.

When the Loma Prieta quake occured, I was in Arlington, doing some work for hq.af.mil. I was outbound earliest the next morning and into SFO at noon...

More Ivan Outages

The WSJ article on IVAN was sent in-toto this am to the NANOG list. There are several reasons why this story is of interest in a network operators' venue -- the unintended reliability consequence of fielding "fiber-to-the-mumble" physical layer service models, the scope of Ivan outages, the scale of RBOC readiness and reserve assets, and the chance to v-peek into someone else's NOC the day the lights went out.

There is an important political consequence to this -- the Betty Castor Campaign lost access to tone-delivered contribution systems -- all phoned-in-credit-or-debit-card-contributions. More on this later.

Here it is.

Storms Cause Greater Outages
In New Fiber-Optic Networks
As BellSouth Races to Recover

By PETER GRANT
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
September 17, 2004; Page B1

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Ron Royster stepped out yesterday for only a few minutes from BellSouth Corp.'s command center here, where technicians closely monitor the havoc Hurricane Ivan is wreaking on its phone network. But as soon as Mr. Royster, the center's director, returned, he could tell conditions had deteriorated.

It was midmorning. Until then, Ivan's impact had been manageable. But an alarm in the Network Reliability Center indicated a fire may have erupted at a central phone office in Marion, Ala. Another office reported that its backup electrical generator had stopped working, forcing it to go on batteries. Most worrisome, the storm had severed fiber-optic lines -- the lifeline of modern communications networks -- in Pensacola, Fla., and on the Alabama-Mississippi state line.

"Things went downhill pretty fast," said Mr. Royster, who hasn't had a day off since Aug. 29 as the Southeast has been pounded by three back-to-back hurricanes.

It was round one in Ivan vs. BellSouth, which provides local phone service to tens of millions of people in nine Southeastern states -- all in Ivan's path. And it isn't exactly a fair fight. BellSouth's disaster-recovery resources already have been stretched thin by the two hurricanes that hit Florida, Charley and Frances.

Furthermore, because of fiber optics and other new technologies BellSouth has added to upgrade its networks over the past decade, the systems are, ironically, more vulnerable to disasters. The key problem: Many phone networks that used to rely on their own electricity now depend partly on commercial power. That means that when the utility company's power lines go down, the phones may go down, too.

Like other regional Bell companies, BellSouth prides itself on its ability to maintain service during disasters and restore it quickly when it fails. Phone executives love to tell stories of the numerous times that people have been able to use their telephones during power failures.

These stories are about more than bragging rights. In today's fiercely competitive telecommunications market, dealing with adversity is a major selling point. Phone companies have been quick to point out that many of the new phone services offered by some cable companies and others using Internet technology often go out in power outages. Now, with their new local fiber networks, phone companies are more vulnerable on this score.

To improve reliability, BellSouth in 1995 consolidated 42 recovery facilities into two, one in Charlotte and the other in Nashville. The recent spate of hurricanes has put those centers through their toughest test yet.

"It's been pretty intense," Mr. Royster says. "First Charlie, then Frances and now this."

Phone companies had unparalleled reliability records when their networks consisted of copper wires that stretched from central offices to homes and workplaces with nothing in between. The copper lines not only carry calls but low-voltage electrical power as well. That is why phones generally have continued to work even when the local power company's lines went out. In addition, the central offices have their own backup power supplies that kick in during power outages. As a result, most service failures have been due to lines that were downed by fallen trees or car accidents.

But in the past decade, phone companies added fiber optics and devices known as "digital loop carriers," small file-cabinet-sized pieces of equipment, between central offices and homes. The devices have greatly boosted the capacity of the lines, cutting costs and making new services including high-speed Internet connections possible.

The digital-loop devices also run on electricity from the local power company's network, however. While they are equipped with batteries, that backup lasts only about eight hours -- and less if there's a lot of Internet traffic over the network. Once the batteries run out, phone and Internet service goes dead unless a backup generator can be installed. While some digital-loop carriers have a generator, BellSouth says it would be economically unfeasible to put a generator at all 65,000 of them.

BellSouth officials say they are exploring ways to make the batteries last longer. "We constantly look for technological advances that would allow us to have a better safety margin," says Richard Burns, the vice-president responsible for BellSouth's network-operations support. "But it's only in these huge, widespread natural disasters that commercial power failures last long enough, and are widespread enough, to have a significant impact."

Initially, Hurricane Frances knocked out phone service for 775,000 BellSouth subscribers -- 13% of its Florida customer base. Most of that was due to power losses, not from downed lines. By contrast, only 350,000 customers lost service at the height of Hurricane Andrew in 1992, before many of the BellSouth networks were upgraded. A large part of the difference is because Andrew hit only two counties, while Frances hit all of BellSouth's Florida operations. But Frances's larger impact also was due to the system's new susceptibility to power outages, BellSouth executives say.

Wireless phone service was also affected. While cellphone towers are built to withstand hurricane-force winds -- and most did -- they use power to transmit their signals. And in areas where the power went out, the towers' backup power, a combination of generators and batteries also sometimes failed. In Mobile, Ala., 38% of Cingular Wireless's coverage area lost service, in Biloxi, Miss., 32% lost service, while in Birmingham, Ala., about 23% lost service, says Calie Shackleford, a
Cingular spokeswoman. Cingular is owned by BellSouth and SBC Communications Corp.

Power was very much on the minds of the 50 or so technicians who manned the BellSouth disaster recovery center in Charlotte yesterday. They watched as the number of central offices on backup generators climbed to 118 at midafternoon, from 63 at about noon. Even more worrisome were those that were relying on batteries, meaning their generators had failed and they had about eight hours of juice left. If one died, thousands of homes and offices would lose their phone service.

Fortunately, all the central offices that switched to batteries did so for only a few minutes while generators were refueled. During one tense moment, Wayne Bell, a technician, stared at a screen that indicated that one generator didn't start after being refueled. That only lasted for a moment, though.

"They got it back," he said, clasping his hands in a prayer motion over his head and looking up in thanks.

But other problems erupted. On other screens technicians monitored the number of digital-loop carriers that were on batteries and the number that had failed, meaning their batteries had died. By midafternoon, 397 had failed and 1,193 were running on batteries. Each one conducts service to as many as 500 households. The ones that fail won't be fixed until the commercial power goes back on or crews attach backup generators.

As Ivan moved north, BellSouth officials moved forward quickly with their recovery plan for areas hit first. A fleet of trucks with 600 emergency generators that had been parked at a staging area south of Valdosta, Ga., began to move out. By noon, 11 tankers with diesel and unleaded gas -- to fuel the generators and repair trucks -- were rolling from Jasper, Fla., to three sites in Alabama. By midafternoon, 114 digital-loop carriers were working on generators.

As of late afternoon yesterday, 350,600 customers had lost their phone service due to Hurricane Ivan -- most of that due to the loss of local power.

BellSouth executives say that the recovery process still under way in Florida didn't have a major impact on the company's ability to move resources into Ivan's disaster zone. All of the company's 1,100 generators were used to restore phone service knocked out by Frances. But by the time Ivan hit, hundreds of them had been freed up because commercial power had been restored. As of yesterday, BellSouth had reactivated service for all but 50,900 of the customers whose phones
went out during Frances.

Write to Peter Grant at peter.grant@wsj.com

<http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB109537424767920279,00.html>

Posted by EBW at 08:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Repeat "Mission Accomplished?" Absolutely!

From AmericaBlog, by way of Atrios, I learned that in a Fox News interview with Bill O'Reilly, President Bush was asked whether, if he had the choice over, he would repeat the "Mission Accomplished" stunt:

Yahoo News reports:

President Bush said he had no regrets about donning a flight suit to give his "Mission Accomplished" speech on Iraq in May 2003 and would do it all over again if he had the chance, according to excerpts from an television interview released on Sunday.

When asked by Fox News if he still would have put on a flight suit to declare major combat operations in Iraq over, Bush replied, "Absolutely."

The Bush administration, of course, contends that the "mission accomplished" banner referred only to the mission of the service people aboard the aircraft carrier, Abraham Lincoln.

It is more than a little disingenuious for an administration as politically adept as this one to claim not to realize that pictures of Mr. Bush standing under a "mission accomplished" banner after the fall of the Saddam statue in Baghdad would be seen as a declaration of victory in the war.

Indeed, the primary effect of the stunt was to raise expectations. Members of the armed services and their families had their hopes raised that the conflict would be like the 1991 Gulf War and that their time of sacrifice would soon be at an end. Failing to meet that expectation risked undercutting troop morale.

Raising the expectations of the American people that the war was over or would soon be over, rather than preparing them for a long, bloody, costly struggle, risked undercutting long term support for the war.

Raising the expectations of the Iraqi people that the period of battle was over and that the period of reconstruction was at hand, and then failing to deliver on those expectations risked losing more Iraqi hearts and minds to the insurgency.

As a general rule, the victory lap should be reserved for when the game is over. As a matter of strategy and/or tactics, it is hard to see how Mr. Bush's flight suit stunt benefited the war effofrt in any way.

If the episode did not help the war effort, perhaps Mr. Bush would do it again anyway because it was politically useful. That does not seem to be the case.

Karl Rove, for instance, has admitted that it was a political mistake:

President Bush's top political adviser said this week that he regrets the use of a "Mission Accomplished" banner as a backdrop for the president's landing on an aircraft carrier last May to mark the end of major combat operations in Iraq.

"I wish the banner was not up there," said White House political strategist Karl Rove. "I'll acknowledge the fact that it has become one of those convenient symbols."

If the incident was not a policy success and was a political failure, why would Mr. Bush say that he would "absolutely" do it again?

I see three possible reasons. The most frivolous is that it was just a lot of fun. Mr. Bush got to take off from the daily grind of not reading PDBs, National Intelligence Estimates, and awful budget projections. He got to do underwater training in the White House swimming pool.

Mr. Bush got to ride in a jet, wear a flight suit, land on an air craft carrier and pretend that he was, once again, a pilot. That is far more fun than Microsoft Flight Simulator.

Mr. Bush may have even enjoyed some of the legends that arose from the incident. One such legend is reported by Neal Boortz in an entry appropriately titled "Urban Legend:"

I am led to understand that George Bush was making some of the radio calls when his Navy SB3 approached the USS Abraham Lincoln almost two weeks ago.

When an aircraft approaches the carrier for landing the pilot is, as I understand it, supposed to line up some brightly lit balls in a display off to the side of the landing deck. As Navy One was on final approach for trap aboard to the Abraham Lincoln Bush is said to have keyed the mic and say "Lincoln, Navy One, 12,500 lbs, I have the balls."

The crowd, as they say, went wild.

In reality:

he did not transmit the words "I have the balls" to the carrier's crew just before landing.

Bush did attempt to "call the ball," interestingly enough, but the transmission wasn't heard by anyone outside the aircraft, according to a Navy source who spoke with the pilot, because the president hit the wrong switch before speaking.

I find it hard to believe that Mr. Bush, in the middle of a close Presidential race, decided on his answer based on whether or not he had fun playing Top Gun. Karl Rove simply would not stand for it.

If we discount the notion that President Bush's answer was frivolous, perhaps the popular notion that Mr. Bush is constitutionally unable to admit a mistake provides an explaination.

Matthew Yglesias writes:

Truly the man is immune to self-doubt, introspection, and minor concepts like letting his thinking be influenced by reality or learning from experience. And things will only get worse if his mismanagement is ratified by the electorate.

I doubt if that is right. Regardless of whether or not Mr. Bush likes admitting mistakes, he likes the propect of electoral defeat a lot less. I doubt that the answer was the result of Mr. Bush's hubris and more of a planned event.

The third possible reason for Mr. Bush's answer, and the one I think is most likely, is that Mr. Bush was using the answer to avoid the natural follow up questions a negative answer would have generated.

When Mr. Bush answered that he "absolutely" would have done it again, he is able to stick to the story that "mission accomplished" referred only to the mission of the crew of Lincoln and not to the war as a whole. He can spin his stunt as a way of rewarding and supporting the troops. If "mission accomplished" is confined to a discrete mission of the men and women of the Lincoln, no difficult follow up questions arise.

If he answered "no," even a semi-competent interviewer would want to know "why not?" The negative answer would require an examination of the Iraq situation Mr. Bush expected, the reality of the situation as it actually exists, and the reasons for the differences. That is one conversation that Mr. Bush does not want to have in front of the American people.

John Aravosis of AmericaBlog thinks that Mr. Bush's answer may be his "political death warrant. I think that the fall out from having to answer the follow up questions from a "no" answer would be far worse for Mr. Bush.

Mr. Bush's answer of "absolutely" was a form of damage control.

New Rules

Judge Russell (CNO), Texas Indian Bar, in academic exile at Indiana, sent this to Triballaw.

THE NEW 2004 CALIFORNIA STATE EMPLOYEE GIRLY-MEN HANDBOOK

by ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER

SICK DAYS We will no longer accept a doctor's statement as proof of sickness. If you are able to go to the doctor, you are able to come to work.

PERSONAL DAYS Each employee will receive 104 personal days a year. They are called Saturday & Sunday.

LUNCH BREAK Skinny people get 30 minutes for lunch as they need to eat more, so that they can look healthy. Normal size people get 15 minutes for lunch to get balanced meal to maintain their average figure. Fat people get 5 minutes for lunch, because that's all the time needed to drinka Slim Fast.

DRESS CODE It is advised that you come to work dressed according to your salary. If we see you wearing $350 Prada sneakers, and carrying a $600 Gucci Bag, we assume you are doing well financially and therefore you do not need a raise. If you dress poorly, you need to learn to manage your money better, so that you may buy nicer clothes, and therefore you do not need a raise. If you dress in-between, you are right where you need to be and therefore you do not need a raise.

BEREAVEMENT LEAVE This is no excuse for missing work. There is nothing you can do for dead friends, relatives, or coworkers. Every effort should be made to have no employees^Mattend to the arrangements. In rare cases where employee involvement is necessary funeral should be schedule in the late afternoon. We will be glad to allow you to work through your lunch hour and subsequently leave that much earlier.

RESTROOM USE Entirely too much time is being spent in the restroom. There is now a strict 3 minute time limit in the stalls. At the end of three minutes, an alarm will sound, the toilet paper roll will retract, the stall door will open and a picture will betaken. After your second offense, your picture will be posted on the company bulletin board under "Chronic Offenders."

Thank you for your loyalty to our great state. We are here to provide a positive employment experience.

s/THE GOVERNATER

I'd chide Steve to work on TribalLaw stuff, but the point of fun is to have it and share it, neh?

Review :: Bush's Brain

Tracy Reed, MB's campaign manager and her husband Josh, and Tom Elko, MB's field director and his fiancee Stephanie Faust came over for supper Friday, and after orzo and shrimp I chased the rabbits upstairs to bed, and we put on a movie. Now this reviewer copy and a second copy came over a month ago, and we never even broke the celophane until Friday night. Elizabeth Trice, campaigning on the Maine Independent Green ballot in the November general election for the same seat MB ran for in the June Democratic primary election, who's campaign website is elizabethtrice.org, and in our kitchen about once a day, brought her partner Stevenson Munroe over for supper about a week earlier. I'd tried to get the owner of The Movies at Exchange Street, Portland's only real movie theater, to show the film without getting a call back, and Stevenson thought he'd be more successful, and I no longer needed two copies ... so ... I only had one copy and one screen to show it on.

Tom teased us that we'd undone his wonderful job of wiring a screen in every room for the boffo Kerry Acceptance Speech Party we had -- before the Swift Boat Adverts, the Zell Miller debacle (quick, for ten points, how do you spell Zell Miller in Portland?), the horrid Chennyisms, and most appropriate of all, the forgeries of unknown provenance, and we settled in with our wine and beer to enjoy the master of the decade -- Karl Rove.

I'm glad we waited, because the faked bug that got Karl's candidate elected governor would have been wasted on me if the forensic document exercise deadending in dirty cut-outs wasn't something I'd been exposed to on the blogs I skim, Duncan's, or blogs I ignore but I hear MB gnashing her teeth over, Marcos typically.

Is Bush's Brain a video worth watching? Yes. We did distract ourselves talking about the campaign we lost and the anacelephic, if not outright suicidal (except that the outcomes for certain actors is better than other actors) free-fall of the Coordinated Campaign, and the low-jinks of MB's primary opponant, but we did enjoy the amazing trajectory of Karl's life from debate club to ... The President's Friend.

The ending isn't on the DVD of course. We hope the end is sometime before January 20th of 2005, but if it was up to the Dems in Maine, the end is a decade or more away. By all means, see the movie, but don't forget that you are part of the cast, and you too must act.

And now a gif from a friend who isn't a squirrel (a squirrel managed to take our power down yesterday morning. it didn't say much, but singed squirrel is hard to miss.)

For the MPA

With the election only weeks out, over breakfast MB asked me to write "a paragraph" on a set topic -- why it is important to elect Maine Indians to the Maine Legislature. There are subtexts. Donna Loring is being Zelled by the Maine Dems just as MB was Zelled by Portland's big "D's". Zell is rather popular up here in Maine, and KE04 has just a couple of sunrises left here in Dawnland before the Zells -- Dottie's creatures running the Coordinated Campaign -- push four electoral votes onto the Red side of the tote board to advance a few state-level slugs fighting for leadership. So, here's the para:

---

Why it is important to elect Maine Indians to the Maine Legislature

Under current law, the two members of the Maine Legislature who represent the two towns of the Passamaquoddy Tribe and the Penobscot Nation at Old Town are non-voting. In addition, under the current rules of the Legislature, which are subject to change by each Legislature, they also may not vote in Committee.

During the 130th Session of the Legislature, Senate Majority Leader Michael Michaud lead the fight to retain the no-votes-in-Committee rule for these two statutory representatives. The claim offered for not allowing Committee votes to Indians was that because Sipayik (Pleasant Point Passamaquoddy Reservation, between Perry and Eastport), and Indian Township (between Princeton and Calais), are within House District 134 and Senate District 4, and Indian Island adjacent to Old Town, are within House District 121 and Senate District 7, that voters for the Passamaquoddy and Penobscot representatives to the Maine Legislature are already represented, and that Indian voting in Committee would violate "one person, one vote". Majority Leader Michaud prevailed on the Committee Voting issue in the 130th Legislature.

The two statutory representatives to the Maine Legislature may introduce bills, as may any party who obtains even a "legislative courtesy" from a member of the legislature, and they may participate in the non-voting activities of Committees, as may any party that attends the Public Hearings
of any Committee.

The enrolled populations of the Passamaquoddy Tribe and Penobscot Nation if combined, are sufficient to form a majority if contained in a single House District. Because these populations are divided by the Legislature into two House districts, they are a non-voting minority in each.

The problem of Indian representation is not restricted to the Passamaquoddy Tribe and Penobscot Nation, though these are the only Maine Indians affected by the non-voting rule for their respective statutory representatives. The Houlton Band of Maliseets, the Aroostook Band of Mic'macs, and Abenakis in Western Maine are also affected. Harold Tomah (Mic'mac) ran for the House from Wells, (District 7) in 2000. He ran a respectable race, but the point is, he can not vote, or run for office, in a voting district where Indians are more than 1% of the population.

The 2000 census in Maine for "Indian" was 7,098, and for "Indian and one other race" is 13,156. Off-reserve Indians over the age of 50, particularly Abenakis, do not declare any "Indian" identity to civil authorities. An estimate of the total Indian population in Maine rises to that of a Senate District, some 36,400 persons, or four House Districts of 8,400 persons each. However, due to the non-contiguousness of the three largest areas where Indian voters reside, and the general dispersion of Indians to Maine's towns and cities, as well as to location that are "away", the contiguous district rule hotly debated elsewhere in the contexts of (non-Indian) "safe minority" or "gerrymandered" districts, completely dilutes the suffrage granted by the Indian Citizenship Act of 1924, and not enacted in Maine until 1952.

This cycle there are two contested races for the 132nd Legislature in which Indians stood for election. Mary Beth Williams (Abenaki) stood in the primary election for a Portland House district, and despite winning endorsements from the Dirigo Alliance and the Portland Press Herald, her better connected and more conservative male opponent obtained the web of party officeholder endorsements and won. Donna Loring (Penobscot) stands in the general election as a Democrat in a competitive district against a moderate Republican. She has been shunned by her Party, and though a Lesbian, Equality Maine, which like the Maine Dems' Coordinated Campain, has leadership overlap with "Casinos NO!", endorsed her opponent, a straight white male Republican.

It is important to elect Maine Indians to the Maine Legislature because the leadership of Maine Democratic Party is wrong and needs correction. Maine's Democrats do not gain by preventing Indians from running competitive races in its primaries, or by preventing Indians from running competitive races in general elections. The ongoing violation of the Indian Citizenship Act of 1924 by the Maine Legislature as a whole is also wrong and needs correction.

Indian Self-Determination is not going to go away. Maine has two choices: to maintain the fiction that the Indian Citizenship Act of 1924 is fully implemented, even though no Indian voting district exists, and both major State parties actively exclude Indians from all effective Party or elective office, or to "get over" its romance with racism and the "no special rights" rhetoric that poison public debate over what is in fact a long series of questions about status and dual-nationality that define Federal Indian Law.

The author is a member of the Maine People's Alliance

---

Michael Michaud now represents the 2nd CD, where there are above 10,000 Indian voters. He may not be re-elected, by about that many votes. We can't ask Wabanakis in the 2nd CD to forget his role in the 130th session of the Legislature. We also can't ask Wabanakis in either the 1st or 2nd CD to overlook just who is running the State Party's Coordinated Campaign. Sic transit gloria.

The real highlights of the day were the bizzaro "photo-shoot-and-hoots" by our around-the-bend Democratic candidate for the legislature, and a memorable visit by our resident skunk.

Charlie Harlow needed to make an impression on our friends, neighbors and volunteers by rolling past our lot time and again, doing the point-and-click with some cheap camera, and yelling something about "soiled Democrats". I could have misheard that last bit. He's rather pleased with himself that he got 26 more votes than MB did. The skunk sprayed the dog. Tomorrow dog meets water, hydrogen peroxide and baking soda. I'm partial to blonds, and he was due for a bath before he went to play with skunk.

Abenaki word of the day: segôgw. Glusskabe punnished Segôgw for being angry towards humans by running his ash pipe over Segôgw's back. The character in oral culture who most characterizes malice and mindlessness however is Malsum, Gluskabe's twin, not Segôgw.

Developers Prefer Juries To Markets

Matthew Yglesias, writing his Weekend Update at Tapped mocked a recent column by George Will characterizing it as follows:

In the current era of crisis, the nation needs to learn more about land use disputes in Connecticut.

The Will column is not actually about land use. Instead it is about the growing problem of local governments using the power of eminent domain to take property from one citizen for the benefit of a preferred person or company.

Eminent domain is the power of the government (federal, state, and local) to take property from citizens. Having the power to take private property is essential to the operation of government. It is a power necessary to build roads, construct water and sewer systems, build schools and parks, and provide electrical grids. Like all powers of the government, the constitution provides a check against its abuse. The Fifth Amendment to the Constitution provides, in part, as follows:

nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.

That provision provides two important checks on the power of the government to take private property. First, the taking must be for a public purpose. Second, the government must pay "just compensation" for any property it takes.

George Will is concerned about the public purpose provision. He tells the tale of a governmental taking of private property in Conneticut for a purpose that does not resemble the building of roads or sewer systems:

[C]onsider the life-shattering power wielded by the government of New London, Conn.

That city, like many cities, needs more revenue. To enhance the Pfizer pharmaceutical company's $270 million research facility, it empowered a private entity, the New London Development Corp., to exercise the power of eminent domain to condemn most of the Fort Trumbull neighborhood along the Thames River. The aim is to make space for expensive condominiums, a luxury hotel and private offices that would yield the city more tax revenue than can be extracted from the neighborhood's middle-class homeowners.

The taking of property by local governments on behalf of devdelopers or other favored groups is a growing problem.

Mike Wallace reported the following:

Jim and Joanne Saleet are refusing to sell the home they've lived in for 38 years. They live in a quiet neighborhood of single-family houses in Lakewood, Ohio, just outside Cleveland.

The City of Lakewood is trying to use eminent domain to force the Saleets out to make way for more expensive condominiums...

Jim Saleet worked in the pharmaceutical industry, paid off his house and then retired. Now, he and his wife plan to spend the rest of their days there, and pass their house on to their children.

But Lakewood's mayor, Madeleine Cain, has other plans. She wants to tear down the Saleets' home, plus 55 homes around it, along with four apartment buildings and more than a dozen businesses.

Why? So that private developers can build high-priced condos, and a high-end shopping mall, and thus raise Lakewood's property tax base.

The same thing is happening in Alabama as well:

In Alabaster (Alabama), on one side, there is some land owned and occupied by plain old citizens, some of whom have lived there for nearly half a century. On the other side, there is the Colonial Properties Trust, a development company, which wants to build a huge shopping center that includes a WalMart Super Store.

The problem is, some of the residents have no interest in selling their property. They see no reason why their lives should be disrupted just because a developer has chosen to build on their land.

Enter the city government of Alabaster. "You must sell," they harrumph. They insist that this project is "necessary" because it will bring in many times the tax dollars of the current residences. And if the landowners still refuse to sell, the city will use its power of eminent domain to condemn the land, force its sale at extremely low prices, and then the city will sell the land to Colonial, and the shopping center will be built.

The New York Times knows how to play the game:

In New York City, the venerable New York Times wanted to build a brand new headquarters in Manhattan. They selected a block which contained a number of established businesses and went about trying to convince the owners to sell. As in Alabaster, AL, some of the owners didn't want to sell because they would be unable to relocate their businesses with the amount of money they were offered. In due course the NYT, having much political power in the City, went to the politicians, who dutifly condemned the recalcitrant business's properties and turned it over to the Times.

The Christian Science Monitor provides additional examples:

• In Atlantic City, an entire black middle-class neighborhood was condemned and destroyed to make way for a tunnel to a new casino.

• Bremerton, Washington removed a woman in her 80s from her home of 55 years for the claimed purpose of expanding a sewer plant, but gave her former home to an auto dealership.

• West Palm Beach County in Florida condemned a family's home so that the manager of a planned new golf course could live in it.

There is no doubt that the beneficiaries of the local governments' use of eminent domain can do quite well. About a year ago, MB linked to a Nick Kristof column that discussed perhaps the most prominent beneficiary of a local government's use of eminent domain:

I have a stack of court documents from Arlington that portray the ''sordid and shocking tale'' of the Rangers stadium, as one lawsuit puts it. Essentially, Mr. Bush and the owners' group he led bullied and misled the city into raising taxes to build a $200 million stadium that in effect would be handed over to the Rangers. As part of the deal, the city would even confiscate land from private owners so that the Rangers owners could engage in real estate speculation.

''It was a $200 million transfer to Bush and Rangers owners,'' complains Jim Runzheimer, an anti-tax campaigner in Arlington.

William Eastland, a leading Republican in Arlington, is also outraged, and puts it this way: ''You're using public money for a private purpose.'' Mr. Eastland was a Bush delegate to the Republican National Convention in 2000 but still believes that the Bush group behaved shadily and against the public interest.

Local voters overwhelmingly approved the deal, so maybe we shouldn't get so exercised by star-struck local officials giving $200 million to rich baseball owners. But the most unseemly part of the deal was that Mr. Bush and the Rangers' owners conspired with city officials to seize private property that would be handed over to the Bush group.

''A group of wealthy and influential people threatened and traded their way into an unprecedented takeover of government power and private property in an awesome display of greed and avarice,'' charges a lawsuit by the landowners, in what strikes me as a fair recitation of events. Another suit charges that the deal ''can only be described as astounding, unprecedented and blatantly illegal.''
A copy of the secret agreement among Mr. Bush and the other Rangers owners shows that they intended to make money not just by running a baseball club but also by land speculation.

For example, one owner found a nice chunk of land and sent a memo suggesting that it ''sounds like another condemnation candidate if you want to work the site into your master plan,'' according to the court documents. Another of the owners' internal memos casts a proprietary gaze on a property and declares: ''We plan to condemn this land.''

For a group of financiers to go around town admiring properties and deciding which to seize through the government power of condemnation so that they can acquire free land and speculate on it is appalling. Even Kazakhstan would blush at such practices.

That deal made Mr. Bush rich as he netted more than $14 million in profit on his investment in the Rangers.

George Will thinks that the problem should be solved by a Supreme Court decision limiting the power of eminent domain to truly public projects such as roads, schools, sewers, courthouses, and parks. Will is surely correct but there is another aspect of the story I wish to highlight.

In each of the examples cited above, the developer had two ways to acquire desired property. First, the developer could pay what the market would bear for the land. Second, the developer could use political influence to have a local government acquire the land through the power of eminent domain.

As noted above, the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution requires that whenever the government takes private property, it must pay "just compensation." When local governments use eminent domain to benefit developers, they require the developer to reimburse the goverment for the amount of the "just compensation."

How is that amount determined? Through the legal system. At least here in Georgia, a jury decides on what is "just compensation."

Thus, in each of the examples listed, the developer decided that he would pay an amount to be determinbed by a jury rather than pay market price for the property. We recently wrote about home builders and developers in Texas who hate the jury system:

Developers and home contractors say juries cannot be trusted to fairly resolve these disputes between a builder and a buyer.

"The last place you want to go is the civil court system. The facts don't matter to a jury," said Bobby Bowling IV, a builder from El Paso and president of the Texas Assn. of Builders. "In court, the plaintiff's lawyer makes it rich versus poor. It's about the redistribution of wealth.

If developers really are afraid that juries act irrationally in favor of the little guy, why are they clamoring to have their land acquisition costs determined by juries rather than by market forces?

Proving Too Much

Iraqi Interim Prime Minister Allawi came to the US recently. According to the L.A. Times, he spent his time here "echoing President Bush's key arguments about Iraq."

Allawi "offered almost exactly the same assessment of Iraq as Bush: conditions are better than they appear, elections for a national assembly are on track and the struggle in his country is a critical front in the global war against terrorism."

As an aside, Mr. Allawi contention that "conditions are better than they appear" reminds me (as it does George Will) of Bill Nye's assement of Wagner's music: "It is better than it sounds."

Joe Lockhart of the Kerry campaign reacted to Mr. Allawi's statements saying:

"The last thing you want to be seen as is a puppet of the United States, and you can almost see the hand underneath the shirt today moving the lips," said Joe Lockhart, a senior Kerry adviser.

Glenn Reynolds was equally quick to react to Mr. Lockhart's statement, calling it "absolutely unacceptable coming from a Presidential campaign in wartime." Reynolds went on to call for Mr. Kerry to fire Lockhart noting that if he doesn't, "you're going to hear a lot of people questioning Kerry's partiotism. And they'll be right to."

Although it is not exactly clear, Reynolds' logic seems to be that our fortunes in Iraq, at least until the elections now scheduled for January, are tied to the Allawi government. Allawi needs to bring stability and security to Iraq in oder for the elections to produce a goverment widely perceived as both legitimate and legitimately Iraqi. If Allawi is perceived to be a puppet of the Americans, then Allawi's ability to bring stability and security to Iraq is harmed.

That, in turn, harms the goal of producing a legitimate Iraqi government. To the extent that Lockhart's statement undercuts Allawi's ability to produce the election of a legitimate Iraqi government, it harms American interests.

Harming American interests is unpartiotic. If Kerry does not fire Lockhart, then he is not a patriot. I think that is Reynolds' logic but I might be mistaken.

Hmm..., that argument seems to prove too much.

For instance, George Will recently wrote the following:

After "This Week" arranged with Allawi's office for Sunday's interview, the U.S. State Department called ABC to say that the office of U.S. Ambassador John Negroponte in Baghdad had decided that the interview would not happen until this coming Sunday, after Allawi's U.S. visit. This attempt by the U.S. embassy to exercise sovereignty over the prime minister raised interesting questions about just what was actually transferred on June 28 when sovereignty was supposedly given to the Iraqi government. The White House recognized the inconvenience of such questions. The interview occurred.

Joe Lockhart holds no government position. All he did was say that Allawi looked like a puppet of the administration. If he deserves to be fired for that offense and if John Kerry's partiotism should be questoned if he does not fire Lockhart, what can we conclude about John Negroponte and George Bush?

Negroponte did not say that Allawi was a puppet, he demonstrated it. First, the highest ranking American official in Iraq presumes to control the interview schedule of the Interim Iraqi Prime Minister. Surely that presumption feeds the perception that Allawi is controlled by the US. Can you imagine the US Ambassador to Russia telling ABC News that they can not run an interview with Putin?

Then, when ABC gets into a snit, they complain, not to Allawi or to the Iraqi government, but to the Bush administration. The Bush administration then reverses ITS policy about Allawi's interview schedule. Once again, the administration's doesn't SAY that Allawi is a puppet, they just treat him like he is Charlie McCarthy and they are Edgar Bergen.

If the point is to lead Iraqi's to believe that Allawi is not a puppet of the US administration, then the damage done by an American official treating Allawi like a puppet is far greater than the statements of a person with no official position.

So far, George Bush, who appointed Negroponte, has not seen fit to fire him for the "absolutely unacceptable" act of treating Allawi like a puppet. By Reynolds' logic, George Bush's patriotism should now be questioned.

Or perhaps we should just conclude that Reynolds's logic is just a wee bit strained as he searches for some way, any way, to smear people with whom he disagrees as being unpatriotic.

Update: If you buy into Reynolds' logic, Corrente has another reason to question Mr. Bush's patriotism. And some more here.

Save Air America

While not yet suppressed by the regime's administrative means, the usual Ashcroftism of "aiding and comforting terrorists", ad placements on Nassua Broadcasting's WLVP (870 AM) favor local sports programming over the Air America talk-radio syndicated content. Therefor, effective October 4th November 8th, WLVP's format will be the ESPN Radio sports syndicated content. Here's the Nassua Broadcasting blurb from last April, when Air America seemed like a good idea.

870 The Voice. The Voice is Portland’s Free-Thinking Talk Station featuring progressive, intelligent talk about today’s issues. There’s been no outlet for the liberal voice in Portland, until now! 870-AM The Voice will carry “Air America Radio”, the new talk format featuring Saturday Night Live Alumni and best selling author Al Franken weekdays from 12-3 PM.

The same blurb notes that another Nassua property, 107.5, ran 10,000 popular songs without commercial interruption. Perhaps Nassua's bean counters are less ... liberal in Fall than they were in the heady rush of Spring.

Personally I never listen to 870. As soon as I get in the car I toggle over to FM, and bump up one programmed setting, from MPR/NPR to the college station, MPG. The talk-radio format simply doesn't interest me, and MPG is mostly interesting most of the time. I'm really partial to the French and Indian programming, Pacifica, the wicked good Blues programming, and Blunt, local news programming. However, MPG has two cheesy little transmitters, and 870 covers a lot more than just Portland and Gorham.

So, can Air America be "saved" in the Portland media market, for, or perhaps even by, people who prefer its content over other content? I'm not sure it should be, but I'm not a fan of syndicated content anyway. The other person who drives the car, the one that toggles over to AM, she may have other thoughts on the subject. For her and the thousands who prefer the talk-radio format, and strongly prefer the Air America content over the other brands of mental detergent, there is a business problem to solve.

So, as a sort of disinterested non-listener in the Portland media market, I'm willing to set up a Save-Air-America dropbox. Either a subscription model (NPR meets Salon) or a good-as-Seadogs-and-McCauley-BBall ad model, to meet the franchise and antenna costs. if you want to contribute to a seed fund, or pre-buy ads, let me know, I'll track virtual-dollars for the time being. And now, a small image sent by a friend ...

Spin, spin, spin,

Knowing that the numbers on durable good were coming out this morning, I headed directly to the Census Bureau website [pdf] to get the semi-spin-free scoop. Unfortunately, at -0.5%, the drop in new orders for big ticket items was even worse that the market expected. So imagine my surprise when I saw this headline and associated article over at Google.news:

Durable goods orders rise 2.3%, ex-transportation

WASHINGTON (AP) — Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket goods dropped 0.5% in August, largely weighed down by a sharp decline in demand for commercial airplanes.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that orders for durable goods — costly manufactured products expected to last at least three years — declined by 0.5%, following a 1.8% advance in July.

The manufacturing picture, however, looked better when volatile transportation equipment, such as airplanes, was excluded: Orders rose by a solid 2.3% in August. That compared with a scant 0.1% gain in July and marked the biggest increase since March.

When all categories of goods were included, durable goods orders rose 1.8% in July.

First, a correction for AP: If you're going to use the revised total number of 1.8% (up from 1.7%), then you should also use the revised "excluding transportation" number, now 0.0%, versus the previously reported +0.1%

Second, while AP heralds the increase in non-transportation spending, they bury another important detail from the report in the last paragraph:

Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft -- which economists use as a gauge of business spending -- fell 0.5%.

So essentially, all this cheerleading by AP is over an increase in government spending on the war on terrah. The fact that businesses cut back on their purchases was merely a footnote.

As a check on AP's non-biased reporting, I sent out the Googling monkeys into last month's media archives. Since last month's positive durable goods numbers were also heavily skewed by a huge increase (+104%) in aircraft orders, I expected to see this headline:

Durable goods orders flat, ex-transportation

Imagine my surprise to instead find this article and headline from AP:

Durable goods orders up in July

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Factory orders for costly manufactured goods in July recorded the biggest gain in four months.

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that orders for durables goods -- big-ticket items expected to last at least three years -- rose 1.7 percent in July from the previous month. Helping was a stronger demand for airplanes, machinery and communications equipment.

Now, to be fair, the article did mention the discrepancy between total orders and those excluding transportation... in the 14th (out of 15) paragraph.

I wonder what the consumer confidence number would currently be if the media reported the actual news. Guess I shouldn't hold my breath in anticipation of that ever happening.

Update: In it's most recent (12:22pm) article on the subject, AP changed it's headline to read:

Orders for Durable Goods Fell 0.5 Percent

Iranian Nuclear Fuels, Inc.

I suppose I should put these things together again. I sort of thought it was one of those everybody-knows things, then I noticed that the IHT is fianlly surfacing the legal, and more importantly, the North-South economic aspect of the <scary-music> reason why one or more nuclear weapons states is about to start a third war in as many years in West Asia</scary-music>. So maybe not everybody knows.

Nominally of course, the cause for pre-emptive war is non-proliferation, a variation on the Niger-yellowcake-goes-to-Iraq story that the regime milked during the midterm.

So, start with my posts on Lisa's blog, first on January 14th, Domestic Enriched Uranium production means ..., then on February 17th, In Defense of Howard Dean. The really salient point is this, William H. Timbers, the company's president and chief executive officer, waxes optimistic about the USEC's long-term future in the global enriched uranium market:

The American Centrifuge will reinforce USEC's long-term position as the global leader in the uranium enrichment marketplace. It represents the first of what I hope will be a new generation of nuclear power construction projects in the United States. Increasingly, America is recognizing the need to boost the use of nuclear power to support our energy independence and to protect national security.

About the same time I mentioned in ROTOTK (5) that the motive of an oil rich state to pursue commercial enrichment was not necessarilty a covert weapons program. At the time I'd been reading the statements from in the Iranian press (in translation) that Iran intended to enrich more fuel than it used and to enter the ... enriched uranium market. Iran wants to sell fuel. USEC wants to sell fuel. Others want to sell fuel too.

Does the NPT cover the entire fuel cycle? Most of its signatories are absolutely certain that it does, and that raw yellowcake need not be exported to China, Russia, Europe or the United States and processed into fuel, and imported back to its {country|region|economy} of origin, and then re-exported when spent for re-processing to China, Russia, Europe or the United States. A few of the signatories, the United States and the UK, and perhaps, only perhaps, Holland, Germany and France, construct the NPT as entitling all of its signatories to only some parts of the entire fuel cycle, and a few of its signatories to all of the entire fuel cycle.

So, the right way to understand the Iranian position is they are positioning to be in competition with USEC (NYSE:USU), BNF (UKGOV), COGEMA (NYSE:CCJ), and whatever comes out of the Russian and Chinese commercial fuel ventures. A Southern State, perhaps the only one, to compete with the Northern States for the fuel market for commercial reactors in the South. An echo of the Non-Aligned Movement's expression in fissiles, which began on 19 December 1945 with the establishment of the now rather well-known Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR). When the Americans bomb the Parchin conventional weapons complex, and the Ardekan Nuclear Fuel Unit, the Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF) in Isfahan, the Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility, and on down the first-strike laundry list, they will be bombing Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru's vision of an economically decolonized South.

Time to re-read Samir Amin's "L'accumulation à l'échelle mondiale".

Ivan's legacy

"Hurricane Ivan's true legacy will be $50 oil,'' said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy risk management at Fimat USA Inc. in New York.

Today, that seldom discussed agency of the Federal government, the EIA (Energy Information Agency) released its update of current US fuel reserves. The news was not good: Crude oil supplies dropped 9.1million barrels, significantly above the 7million barrels analysts expected.

In addition, things look very bad for refined petroleum products:

Heating oil prices reached $1.346, the highest since the contract was introduced in 1978. Heating oil for October delivery was up 2.71 cents, or 2.1 percent, at $1.33 a gallon in New York. Prices were 89 percent higher than a year earlier.

Gasoline for October delivery was up 4.14 cents, or 3.2 percent, at $1.331 a gallon in New York. Prices were 66 percent higher than a year earlier.

Ironically, the remnants of Ivan have ended up back in the Gulf of Mexico, although it is not yet clear whether they will redevelop any tropical storm characteristics. The stormy weather will hamper repair efforts, however, on a number of oil rigs with sustained damage, delaying a return to full production capacity. Three other tropical systems are haunting the Atlantic basin, with a fourth showing development potential. While none are threatening land at the moment, shipping interests are considerably inconvenienced by the climatic chaos abound.

So should the Administration be concerned these shortfalls will effect consumer sentiment? WSI, which charts the impact of weather on business, reports:

Andover, MA, September 21, 2004 — WSI Corporation today issued the seasonal outlook for the upcoming three-month period (October-December). WSI expects this period to average cooler-than-normal in most of the northern half of the US, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest, as well as the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast states. Warmer-than-normal temperatures will be confined to the the Pacific Coast states, the Southwest, and the Southeast. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).

Here in southern Maine, we don't tend to turn on the furnace much until mid-October, and then can generally run off of last springs oil reserves in the tanks until sometime in November. However, if the weather should in fact turn cold, as it has been recently, we might have to move up that date. I imagine we're not alone, and I've heard that many people who traditionally are on year round heating fuel schedules stepped back from them this summer, banking on the high prices dropping this fall. Looks like they gambled wrong.

The real question is what effect will high prices have on voters in recession-weary, heating-oil dependent swing states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Maine? My guess is it's still too soon to answer.

Hurricane season doesn't end until November 30th.

David vs. Goliath

I am rather busy with real life matters at the moment, but I can not resist commenting on something I noticed in a post by Jesse at Pandagon.

Jesse discusses a Texas tort reform provision that prevents litigation over residential construction disputes. He links to this L.A. Times article. Pandagon has the issue covered well, as does Kevin Drum and I have little to ad to their commentary.

Nonetheless, I did notice the following in the Times story:

Developers and home contractors say juries cannot be trusted to fairly resolve these disputes between a builder and a buyer.

"The last place you want to go is the civil court system. The facts don't matter to a jury," said Bobby Bowling IV, a builder from El Paso and president of the Texas Assn. of Builders. "In court, the plaintiff's lawyer makes it rich versus poor. It's about the redistribution of wealth."

That is an argument I hear all the time. Plaintiff's lawyers win because they argue that their clients are the little guy fighting against the evil big corporation (or a rich homebuilder) and that is all the jury needs to hear to decide the case.

I make my living talking to juries and I sometimes represent the little guy against the big guy. I never, ever, ever make that argument. Legal lore has it that there was a time then the David vs. Goliath argument was effective, but it certainly has never been one that juries have been willing to accept in the nearly twenty years that I have been trying cases. It just does not work.

Ask yourself a simple question. If you were on a jury, would you decide a case based on the evidence presented or based on the economic status of the parties? How would your spouse decide, your friends, members of your church, co-workers, or boss? Do you know anyone who would ignore all the evidence in order to decide a case as a statement of class solidarity? I have never met a single juror like that and, in the unlikely event that such a juror appeared, he or she would be quickly struck from the panel by the defense.

The argument that I do make is ripped from the lexicon of the conservative political movement. The case, I often argue, is about accepting personal responsibility for the consequences of one's choices.

If an ambulance company chooses to have its drivers operate on 36 hour shifts and a dead-tired driver in the thirty-second hour of his shift causes a wreck that kills a 27 year old woman, the company should accept responsibility for the consequences of its choice. If an apartment complex chooses to leave its swimming pool full of water all winter, fails to lock the gate the the pool, and allows a red ball to float in the water, it should accept responsibility for its choices when a two-year old suffers brain damage from a near drowning. If a trucking company choses to save a little money by deferring maintenance on the brakes of its trucks, it should accept responsibility for causing the disability of a young husband and father.

Those are actual arguments I made in actual cases. In every one, I represented a little guy against a big guy. In each of those cases, I could have argued that my client should recover because he or she was a little guy and the defendant corporation had plenty of money. I chose not to do so, preferring to make the personal responsibility argument instead. Which of those arguments would you find more compelling?

More mercury please

Yesterday we in Portland were blessed by a visit from the EPA Administrator. The EPA under the Occupation is on record that by 2018, projecting from the current rate of fishing advisories, and assuming mercury emissions are the primary factor in future fishing advisories, 159% of all river miles, and 65% of all lake acres in the US will be so mercury polluted that eating the fish will cause neurological damage. We were appraised yesterday that the Occupation's plan of record is "very aggressive". How droll. The EPA Administrator also went on record that stack scrubbers are one of the "fictions" that have clouded the mercury emissions debates.

I wrote about this is more detail here.

The real purpose for Mike Leavitt's visit was to do a dog-and-pony with the third- and fourth-graders at the Presumpscot School, because their buses have been retro-fitted to burn homework and teachers, thus reducing diesel emissions, and helping Presumpscot parents understand why Portland public schools must reject Maine's Learning Results, and embrace, and patriotically fail, the NCLB Kafka Metrics.

Airplane lands, chucks passenger

Usually the flights are from Orlando or someplace equally "fun", and the nationality of the passenger-chuckee is UK, and the chuckee is wicked drunk and a danger to self, or others and the aircraft. Bangor is the dumping spot for east-bound trans-atlantic flights, the end of the Northeast corridor airspace, the last landing in US jurisdiction.

Yesterday's land-and-chuck was novel. The flight was a west-bound trans-atlantic flight, Bangor was selected because it was the first landing in US jurisdiction, the nationality of the passenger-chuckee was the same -- UK -- and he was determined to be a danger, perhaps to self, perhaps others and the aircraft, or perhaps even the regime itself. The passenger was Cat Stevens, a pacifist, who lives under the name of Saunders, er Yusuf Islam, somewhere in the 40 Acre Wood.

To be fair, Yusuf Islam is an idiot. Then again, so is everyone who isn't loyal to the regime and engages in travel plans the White Shirts at the TSA can modify at will. He could have flown to Halifax and taken a ferry to Portland and then taken train or bus or hired car to Washington City. He could have flown to Toronto and, minus the time spent on the ferry, again taken train or bus or hired car to Washington City. In a pinch he could have done what Passamaquoddies and Maliseets and Mic'macs and Abenakis do, and walked across the Red Line [1] and then bummed rides south. "Hi, I'm Yusuf Islam but you may know me as Cat Stevens. I used to sing in the pop genre before I got religion. I'm on my way to Northern Virgina to join the army of Senators Kerry and Edwards and overthrow George the Fifth and the Likudniks and make the world less crazy. I'm carrying some songs. Can I get a ride with you?"

It's now official. Next to go may be Dr. Helen Caldicott. Processless deportations. Cat Stevens will be deported from the United States today. For offensive language.

[1] The Red Lined Map of 1775, be sure and mouse over the "show boundary" button.

Update: Juan Cole cites the Khomeni-Rashid fatwa as sufficient to merit deportation. Yow! I feel almost as surprised as when Alan Dershowitz came out in favor of torture.

Please act now...

While American interests have fretted over super-hurricanes Charley, Frances and Ivan, real tragedy struck with a mere "tropical storm", aka Jeanne.

Haiti Flood Death Toll Rising, Hundreds Missing
By REUTERS Filed at 6:55 p.m. ET

GONAIVES, Haiti (Reuters) - Survivors of devastating flooding in Haiti wandered mud-clogged streets in search of food on Tuesday as officials said 662 people had been killed and more than 1,000 were missing.

Tropical Storm Jeanne swept north of Haiti during the weekend, drenching the impoverished Caribbean nation of 8 million, inundating cities and sending deadly mudslides through towns and villages.

Ironically, one of Haiti's greatest natural disasters occurred the same week as the bicentenial of the nation's independence. 200 years ago, Haiti became the second colonial interest in the Western Hempisphere to fight a bloody rebellion and declare itself independent of its European keepers. However, in this case, the insurgents were overwhelmingly black, and Haiti became the first non-white republic in the modern era.

I realize that so many of us are tapped out with the current campaign season, but please send Haitians a much needed anniversary gift, a humanity gift.

International Red Cross
CARE
Catholic Relief Services
UNICEF

Oh Yum!

[via triballaw at abenaki wabanaki net]

For reasons that don't quite manage to completely make sense, in the years since Digital Council Fires I, Karen Beuller's National Indian Telecommunications Institute (NITI) hasn't managed to pull together a II. Finally another attempt at an Indigenous Technical fora. Karen is famous for her little-old-ridge-injun-lady-wants-tone-asks-and-asks-cuts-rez-transiting-whites-only-wire-gets-tone story. Apocryphal, but it always brings smiles to faces.

Please respond directly to David Wilson, Associate Dean (Education) Faculty of Information Technology

Stephen Grant, Max Hendriks and I are editing a book entitled "Indigenous People and Information Technology", which will be published in early 2006 by the Idea Group, an American publishing house specializing in technology, information science, education and management. We would appreciate it if you could forward this email to any of the listserves that you have access to in order to promote our Call for Chapters.

"Indigenous People and Information Technology" aims to bring together expert and up-to-date contributions from leading researchers and writers in the field of Indigenous people and Information Technology from around the world. We are especially interested in contributions from Indigenous authors.

We invite proposals for two types of submissions:
- Full chapters
- Short case studies

CALL FOR CHAPTERS
Chapter topics will include (but are not limited to):
- General and theoretical issues surrounding Indigenous adoption and participation in Information Technology
- Barriers and challenges to Indigenous access to IT
- Culturally appropriate technology design
- Computer education for Indigenous people
- Indigenous knowledge management issues, Indigenous intellectual property and IT, and Indigenous cultural archives
- Development of Indigenous communities through e-commerce, remote service delivery, and the creation of smart communities.

CALL FOR CASE STUDIES
Short case studies describing Indigenous IT implementations in the field will be included in the book. These will be 1 - 2 pages long.

SUBMISSION PROCEDURE:
You are invited to submit a 1-2 page proposal by email on or before 15th October 2004. The proposal should include:
- A working title of your proposed chapter or case study
- An explanation of the topic in paragraph and/or point form
- Names and affiliations of authors as well as email address of first author
- The country or area of the world to which the chapter refers, if reporting on a specific case or implementation
- Estimated length of paper

FOLLOWING THE SUBMISSION OF YOUR PROPOSAL
Authors of accepted proposals will be notified by 31st October 2004 about the status of their proposals and sent chapter organizational guidelines. Full chapters and case studies must be submitted by 1st February 2005. All submitted chapters will be reviewed on a blind review basis by 2 expert scholars in the field. Short case studies will be reviewed by the editors. The book is scheduled to be published in early 2006.

If you know of anyone who might like to submit their work for consideration, please feel free to pass this information on to them. Further details and a full list of suggested topics can be found at the "Indigenous People and Information Technology" website: http://project.it.uts.edu.au/indigenous-it

Please forward your proposal by 15th October 2004 to: indigenous-it@it.uts.edu.au

Best regards,
Laurel, Max and Steve

Cobell v. Norton -- rhetoric reviewed

[from the Indian Trust ListServ <list@list.indiantrust.com>]

Dispute Over Article Accusing Presiding Judge of Conducting a Reign Of Terror

WHO: Keith Harper, Esq., Counsel to the Class in Cobell v. Norton, the largest case ever filed against the United States, involving American Indian money held in trust by the U.S. government for more than 100 years without a proper accounting.

Mr. Harper will be joined in the debate by American University Law Professor Jamin Raskin, who has served as counsel to the plaintiffs.

Debating Mr. Harper and Professor Raskin will be George Washington University Law Professor Richard Pierce, author of a highly controversial 2004 article in American University's Administrative Law Review attacking the U.S. federal district court judge in the Cobell v. Norton litigation. The article was entitled: Judge Lamberth's Reign of Terror at the Department of Interior.

WHEN: September 21, 2004, 7:30 PM

WHAT: Debate over merits of the Cobell litigation and Professor Pierce's public attacks against Judge Lamberth's handling of the case. Professor Pierce's recent appeal to the Judicial Council a review board for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit to have Judge Lamberth removed from the case was firmly rejected. Pierce responded by accusing the Judicial Council of impermissible bias in the case.

WHERE: American University School of Law, Washington, D.C., Room: TBA

WHY: The timing of this debate will correspond with the opening of the National Museum of the American Indian and related events planned for the week of September 20th. Coverage of the museum's opening should underscore the issues in this important multi-billion dollar lawsuit and make clear the matter is not historical but an ongoing injustice that is current and newsworthy.

About Cobell v. Norton

Cobell v. Norton was originally filed in 1996 by lead plaintiff Elouise Cobell, who had tried for years to get an accurate accounting of funds held in trust by the U.S. government for individual Indian-owned land that had been leased by the federal government for mining, grazing, oil and gas exploration and other uses. In two separate trials, a federal judge found that the U.S. Departments
of the Interior and Treasury engaged in "fiscal and governmental irresponsibility in its purest form" in maintaining and accounting for the trust assets belonging to 500,000 individual Indians.

You know, all it would take to make national native news on this is for one of the candidates, or one of their spouses, to simply sit quietly in the audience. For those of you who need context, if you've seen the movie "O Brother Where Art Thou", this is the moment where Reform Party candidate Homer Stokes (Wayne Duvall) reveals his other role as the Imperial Wizard of the Invisible Knights of the Klu Klux Klan, and demands of the audience "Is you is, or is you ain't, my constituency?"

Narcoleptics

[Update: Published with minor edits in the Portland Press Herald on Thursday, September 30th, 2004.]

The Portland Press Herald ran a major, but unsigned editorial yesterday -- in favor of nuclear power. It was titled "It would be worthwhile to develop nuclear power again" and subtitled "Political failures made Maine Yankee too risky for its owners, and those risks persist today". In it the editorial board argue that:

The one drawback to nuclear power, and it is a significant one, is finding an appropriate means to dispose of the radioactive waste generated by the plants. Such disposal can be carried out with minimal risk to people and the environment, but not without risk to politicians.

The editorial board errs. There are more drawbacks to the use of fission reactors for the generation of electricity than management of spent fuel loads. The literature on the subject, scientific, technical, policy and polemic, is substantial.

The editorial board errs too in representing risk as a social construct. Risk is the aggregation of physical events -- the certainties of metal corrosion and fatigue, plastic and cement aging, variations of human behavior, and the probabilities of relay failure, process logic failure, computer failure, grid failure, earthquake, fire, flood, ice, war, sabotage, and again variations of human behavior.

Least this seem hypothetical, the Equinix Ashburn F facility, a recent "five 9s" datacom build-out in the Chantilly/Dulles area just outside of Washington D.C., lost HVAC due to a tornado, and a day later that area was still without power. EQUINIX Ashburn F has 40,000 gallons of fuel on site, with a 500 gallon an hour burn rate, trucks coming with fuel, and ETA Of midnight (last night) for the critical grid transformer repair. HVAC was restored soon after the grid transformer failure event, preventing
wide-spread failure of the customer equipment (co-located data facilities for many WDC-area public agencies and businesses) due to overheating. [Update:1024x768 pixel jpeg of a an unidentified commercial data center in Virginia damaged by a tornado.]

EQUINIX Ashburn F, a modern "five 9s" node on the internet, with more datacom gear than exists in all of northern New England, came within some part of an hour of heat death, due to failure of the HVAC system, due to a power transient event, due to a transformer failure, due to line damage,
due to a tornado, due to a hurricane. The National Finance Center (NFC) in New Orleans shutdown due to Hurricane Ivan. That stopped all loan processing, withdrawals and fund transfers in the Federal 401(k) financial network, all payroll processing for the Department of Agriculture, and all records access for the Federal Thrift Savings Plan. In 1998 the NFC and the General Services Administration setup a model technology disaster recovery service, with the backup center for the NFC in Cumberland, MD. Ivan got the secondary center in Maryland the day after the NFC primary in Louisiana went dark.

Discourse about physics, engineering, and human behavior in the context of crisis management is socially constructed, but the discourse is not the ongoing, or the immanent, chains of causation.

The editorial board of any newspaper can indulge in writing about the world as if writing were the world, just as legislatures have legislated against snowfall, but reason is not a substitute for reality. Starting from the conclusion of "Nukes? Thanks!" to discover that waste stream safety is a solved problem is ... frivolous. Like the Bush regime's rational for, and ongoing sitreps of, its war in Iraq.

Familiarity with "Standard Format and Content of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants" is not optional. Nostalgic prosody to accompany photos of the explosive demolition of a Stone and Webster containment dome that housed a Combustion Engineering 860 MWe PWR that was shutdown in 1972 is not sufficient.

Now there are fuel loads that it would be prudent to burn -- downblends from weapons-grade enriched uranium, but not because burning downblend is "safe", it is simply "safer" than failing to decrement the global accumulation of uranium enriched above the 5.5% threshold.

See you on the slab!

An inadvertent omission corrected

I often forget to update Wampum's blogroll and with all the the excitement this spring and summer, I've been worse than usual. In fact, after reading armchair pollmeister Steve Soto deconstruct Gallup's latest atrocity, I was shocked to find the LeftCoaster did not occupy a permanent spot on the sidebar.

That has been fixed. I know we have some other housekeeping to do, but more pressing matters, aka Sunday night baths, take precedent.

The week weak ahead

A short time ago, I surfed over to one of my favorite haunts, Yahoo's Economic Calendar, in order to get a head start on the economic statistics due out this week. The chart below includes all those listed by Yahoo in the coming week.

While George Bush continues to claim the economy is heading in the right direction, it doesn't appear "the market" shares his confidence.

Nota bene: If these numbers play out, this will be the third month in a row where the leading indicators are in the negative column. In the past, such a trend more times than not was the harbinger of recession. Hopefully, we'll break with that tradition.

School Supplies

According to CNN, school teachers on average spend more than $450 per year out of their own pocket buying supplies for their classroom.

Teachers around the country often reach into their own pockets to buy school supplies for themselves or their students, either because the school system does not provide the money, or because they feel sorry for youngsters from poor homes who come to school without the things they need.

What type of supplies do the teachers pay for?

Karl Kaku, an English teacher at Fresno High School for 10 years, said he spent $200 on supplies before this year's classes had even started.

"Stuff to write with, stuff to write on, pens, paper, overhead transparencies, overhead markers, ink cartridges," said Kaku, who makes $56,000 a year. "Some years, there's some money. Others, there's nothing. This year there's nothing."

California had a $1500 per year tax credit to reimburse teachers for the amounts they spent out of their own pocket on classroom supplies. That provision has been suspended. A $250 federal tax deduction for teachers also expired this year.

The NEA and other groups are trying to reinstate the tax provisions.

Politicians of both parties love to talk of the inportance of education. Making sure that each child has an adequate supply of essential educational supplies seems pretty basic.

Forget about using the tax code to indirectly reimburse teachers for buying school supplies. Instead, let's directly fund the purchase of adequate supplies for each classroom. Every school child, regardless of socio-economic background, should have pencil and paper available to them in the classroom.

I realize that that is a radical notion, but its time has come.

National Museum of the American Indian Grand Opening

The full press-release is in the extended entry. When we passed through DC on our way home from the Outer Banks a month ago we parked in front of the museum. Work was still on-going. We were beyond pleased to see blank spaces in the Museum of Natural History where there used to be Indians. Don't get me wrong, we like, no, we love dinosaurs, but Indians are neither wicked extinct nor wicked exotic, so we don't really want to live with dinos, mastadons and dodos so much as visit them from time to time.

A lot of our friends are traveling to Washington City this weekend, to be at the opening of the NMAI. Not us. Its still election season, we've got candidates up and down ticket, so we're stay-at-homes.

Update: KE04 just sent out an invitation to astroturf the national native print media. Not one of their better ideas, since above-the-fold, below-the-fold, on-page-3, the op-ed pages, and continued-on-back-page will all be celebratory of locals at NMAI for the next week or so. I suppose the NMAI opening might have caught them by surprise.

National Museum of the American Indian Grand Opening
Location: District of Columbia
Directions: 4th St. and Independence Ave., S.W. Washington, D.C. 20024

The National Museum of the American Indian, Washington, D.C., is located on the National Mall between the Smithsonian's National Air & Space Museum and the U.S. Capitol Building.

9:00 a.m. - Noon
Native Nations Procession
Native communities from throughout the Hemisphere are being invited to participate in the Procession on the National Mall, departing from 14th Street N.W. to the main stage of the Opening Ceremony, directly in front of the U.S. Capitol. The procession, open to all Natives and non-Natives supporters in the Western hemisphere, will include an Honor Guard of Native veterans.

Noon - 1:00 p.m.
Opening Ceremony
The ceremony will take place on the National Mall, with the U.S. Capitol as the backdrop. Following the speaking program, there will be a cultural presentation followed by a blessing ceremony. The museum will then be open to the public. Currently listed as speakers: NAMI Director W. Richard West, Smithsonian Secretary Lawrence M. Small, Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell, and Senator Daniel K. Inouye.

1:00 p.m. Social Dance
The National Congress of American Indians, in collaboration with the American Indian Society of Washington, DC, will host a cultural exchange on the National Mall. This cultural exchange will include sharing of tribal dances, songs, and other traditions by native people. The Social Dance will provide an opportunity for a cultural exchange for Native peoples throughout the world and others in attendance. This experience will provide an opportunity for international Indigenous peoples to honor the Museum's opening in their own way by sharing their unique lifeways, songs and dances. The spirit of this social dance is one of sharing and celebration, a way to allow all nations to share their culture with the world.

1:00 p.m. - 5:30 p.m. First Americans Festival
The First Americans Festival is free and open to the public. On five stages, musicians, dancers, and storytellers from throughout the Western Hemisphere will represent the breadth and depth of contemporary Native cultural arts.

The festival will present both traditional and contemporary performances. Arts and Crafts, a Native Market, and Native food will also be present.

5:30 p.m. Opening Night Concert
Charlie Hill (Oneida), emcee, Rita Coolidge (Cherokee), contemporary vocals with flutist Mary Youngblood (Aleut/Seminole), Lila Downs (Mixtec), world beat, Indigenous (Nakota), rock and blues
Buffy Sainte-Marie (Cree), contemporary vocals.

StartDate/Time: September 21, 2004 9:00 AM
End Date/Time: September 21, 2004 5:30 AM
Open To Press: Yes
Cost: Free
Contact Phone: 202-633-1000
Website: http://www.nmai.si.edu/

If the election were held in February...

Earlier today, I wrote on faltering consumer confidence numbers, and their potential to determine the election. Well, one of the larger influences on consumer sentiment is fuel costs, in particular, prices at the gas pump. However, some analysts are now warning that heating costs this winter could be considerably higher than in past years, and even the government's own agency, the EIA (Energy Information Administration), now tends to agree:

I haven't as yet figured out EIA's rationale, however, regarding it speculation over "demand". Last winter saw above average temps in the West and upper Midwest, normal temps in the Northeast, and below average temperatures in the South, due mostly to a developing El Nino event. This year NOAA believes the El Nino will remain in effect, at least through late 2005, and thus predicts a similar temperature pattern as last year.

Regardless of fluxuations in demand predictions, if this winter is within a few degrees of "normal", American consumers will be paying on average 15-20% more than they did last winter.

Well, that was the EIA's September 6th assessment. Things have become somewhat gloomier in the last week, what with Ivan interrupting oil rigs and refineries along the Gulf Coast, the Russian government seizing a number of YUKOS facilities and Nigerian thieves crippling one of the country's main pipelines. Oil markets reacted today, with prices approaching the $45/barrel mark once again. Even OPEC's promises of increased production can't seem to cool the market beyond a day or two. And with more hurricanes brewing in the Atlantic, it's clear Nature isn't cutting Bush a break.

Unfortunately for John Kerry, most Americans don't turn up their thermostats until after they enter the polling place on November 2nd. The question is, will we be experiencing buyers remorse as we shiver through this coming winter?

Consumers get nervous...

US Sept Consumer Sentiment Stagnates
Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:56 AM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment stagnated in early September as doubts about the economy and the job market persisted, a report indicated on Friday.

The University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence moved lower to a preliminary reading of 95.8 from 95.9 in August, according to sources who saw the subscription-only report. Analysts had looked for a rise to 96.5.

U.S. economic growth weakened in the second quarter and forecasters are now trying to determine whether that softness was transitory or marked the start of a longer-term trend.

The Michigan Sentiment report is the lesser known of the major consumer confidence reports, with the Conference Board's numbers, due out at the end of the month garnering a bit more attention generally. Last month, their report indicated a drop of 7 points, the first decrease in consumer confidence in over six months. With new Conference Board numbers due out at the end of the month (cutoff for the 5,000 households polled is next week), the Michigan report's preliminary numbers (about 300 households) may prove a harbinger of continued nervousness among consumers.

Despite an economy which appeared to be rebounding in the fall of 1992, George Herbert Walker Bush suffered the slings and arrows of dropping consumer confidence numbers. His son may find himself facing a similar situation if the trend continues.

Bush's Ohio corner, revisited

In an August 1st post, I analyzed the employment situation in Ohio, and despite the Bush Administration's assertions that things had "turned the corner" due to the dropping unemployment rate, I came to the conclusion that things were nowhere near as rosy as the neo-con talking heads were claiming. To recap, although the unemployment rate had dropped from a high of 6.3% in January 2004 to 5.8% in June, the size of the labor force and number of employed workers also dramatically decreased over the year, by over 80K and 50K respectively.

So where do Ohio workers stand now? [PDF]

The unemployment rate has jumped from 5.8% in June to match its previous 10 year peak of 6.3%.

This could be in part due to an increase in the labor market, which saw 27.9K new workers enter the job market in the past two months. However, during that same time, the ranks of the unemployed grew by 28.5K. At first glance, it merely looks like a shift on paper from one column to the next. However, at the same time, the number of employed workers in Ohio dropped by 4,400.

More job seekers, more unemployed workers, fewer jobs. In a purely capitalist world, this scenario would be heaven-sent, as more workers competing for fewer jobs tends to drive down labor costs. Of course, it also tends to drive down the spending power of the workers lucky enough to find work.

Not to be the last to notice the problem, uber-conservative Grover Norquist highlighted Ohio's continuing economic quagmire, and lashed out at its governor, Bob Taft. Brilliant tactic, IMO. Taft, although a Republican, is not running for re-election this year, thus makes a perfect scapegoat, shifting the blame from a more vulerable target, George Bush. By the time Taft is on the ballot, Ohioans will have forgotten their earlier anger and vote Republican as they always tend to do. At least that's what Norquist is betting on.

Of course, a mob burning Gov. Taft in effigy outside the state house steps might be a bit alarming. But tossing a few IBM Selectrics on the bonfire might yet distract them.

Generally, I don't do this...

But there is a point to be made this time.

From the Associated Press earlier today:

Cherokee Nation Leaders Criticize Coburn Comments
Coburn Calls Tribal Treaties With U.S. 'Primitive' Agreements
POSTED: 2:27 pm CDT September 16, 2004

TULSA, Okla. -- Cherokee Nation leaders say remarks made by U.S. Senate candidate Tom Coburn during a town hall meeting in Altus last month were divisive and offensive to Indians.

In a news release Thursday, tribal leaders quoted Coburn as calling treaties between the United States and Indian Nations "a joke" and "primitive agreement(s)."

"I mean, this is a joke," Coburn was quoted as saying. "It is one thing for us to keep our obligations to recognize Native Americans, but it's a totally different thing for us to allow a primitive agreement with the Native Americans to undermine Oklahoma's future."

The Cherokee Nation also released audio of Coburn's comments.

"I'm a Republican and it's hard to understand why Tom Coburn takes pride in dividing Oklahoma and ridiculing people," said Chad Smith, principal chief of the Cherokee Nation.

Coburn also said he represented the congressional district where most Oklahoma Indians reside and "the problem is most of them aren't Indians."

The 2nd Congressional District, which Coburn represented for three terms, has a sizeable population of members of the Cherokee Nation and tribal leaders said they took Coburn's comments to mean that Cherokees "aren't really Indians."

Coburn is in a close race with Democrat Brad Carson for the Senate post being vacated Republican Don Nickles.

A spokesman for Coburn said he had not heard about the criticism from the Cherokee leaders and had no immediate comment.

While others are all over this, rightly so, for Coburn's comments, it's ironic that the Associated Press failed to mention one important detail. His opponent, Brad Carson, is an enrolled member of the CNO, and the only Indian running for US Senate this year.

As a sidenote, Eric's great-grandfather graduated from the University of Arkansas medical school and did his residency on the CNO reservation in 1900-02. His gr-gr-grandparents are buried in the Indian section of the Cherokee City cemetery, less than 20 yards from the boundary separating Arkansas from "Indian Territory".

Did He Mean Fayette County?

At a recent "Ask President Bush" event in Missouri, Mr. Bush explained part of why he feels tort reform is essential:

Talk to an OB/GYN these days. Find out what that's like. When these OB/GYNs are getting sued right and left, it makes it awfully hard for a person to be able to find a doc to deliver the baby. And that's not right in our society. So I'm for medical liability reform.

I wonder If Mr. Bush had Fayette County, Georgia in mind.

Fayette County, Georgia is a suburban county located a half hour (in light traffic, more than an hour in heavy traffic) south of Atlanta. It has a population of 100,000 but has no hospital that delivers babies. The local hospital, Fayette Community Hospital, has no obstetrics unit.

According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution, last year more than 1,000 Fayette County women had to travel to other counties to deliver their babies. Some of those women were travelling 35 miles to Northside Hospital in Atlanta for delivery. As one person put it, "It's just a long drive. If you are in labor it's a longer drive."

So, is Fayette County an example where the lack of damages cap has made it difficult for woment to find a hospital to deliver their babies? Have the voracious and greedy trial lawyers sued the local hospital at and for the drop of a hat? Have sympathetic and simplistic juries, being presented with evidence of a damaged baby, awarded millions and million of dollars in suits where the doctor did nothing wrong? Have OB/GYNs have fled the county leaving pregnant women to make a long drive while in labor in order to find a hospital in which to deliver their babies?

Well, no.

The lede of the AJC story linked above is as follows:

They're boiling water at Fayette Community Hospital.

The 100-bed hospital recently got permission from the Georgia Department of Community Health to open an obstetrics unit.

Fayette Community, which will celebrate its seventh anniversary Friday, plans to start with a seven-bed obstetrics unit in the summer of 2006, said hospital spokeswoman Ryan Duffy.

If Fayette Community Hospital thought that delivering babies posed such a great risk of litigation that it was unprofitable, why would they seek permission to open an obstretrics unit?

If the hospital was unable to find OB/GYNs to staff an obstetrics unit because of fear of litigation, why would it seek to open such a unit?

It seems that despite the absence of a damage cap in Georgia, Fayette Community Hospital still wants to be in the business of delivering babies. Imagine that.

It is not a sure thing that the hospital will get permission to open the unit. An objection has been filed to the application. Who filed the letter of opposition? Southern Regional Hospital.

Southern Regional delivered about 5,000 babies last year. Almost 650 of those deliveries were Fayette County babies. If Southern Regional was losing money delivering Fayette County babies as a result of all the money paid out in law suits, they would welcome the OB unit at Fayette Community. Instead, they object to increased competition.

It is not the greedy trial lawyers who are standing in the way of an obstetrics unit for Fayette County. It is another hospital concerned that competition might cut into its profits.

Do you suppose Mr. Bush will mention that any time soon?

Cobell v. Norton --- Evidence Denied

Dwight's covered the "federal appeals court refused to take the federal judge overseeing the Indian trust fund off a contentious contempt proceeding involving dozens of government officials and attorneys" aspect of the Trust Fund litegation. There is another part however.

Former Interior secretary Bruce Babbitt, his former chief of staff Anne Shields and a number of past and present Department of Justice attorneys, were winners in the same ruling, as the court also blocked the release of former Special Master Alan Balaran's reports that had been prepared for the contempt proceedings. We covered his resignaiton last April.

The court wrote that Balaran developed the reports by relying on communications that occurred outside the normal channels of the litigation. These ex parte contacts with government and third-party sources were cited as evidence of his potential bias against the officials he was investigating. We covered one instance of his communications "outside the normal channels of the litigation" almost a year ago today. Here is the court:

Because Special Master Balaran had ex parte contacts that may have given him personal knowledge of disputed evidentiary facts relevant to the contempt proceedings, those proceedings should never have been referred to him.

The decision to suppress Special Master Balaran's reports does not resolve the underlying issue, or quash the contempt.

At issue is whether the officials destroyed trust documents against court orders. The plaintiffs in the case, led by Elouise Cobell, a banker from the Siksika (Blackfeet) Nation of Montana, had named 37 people at Interior and Justice whom they said disobeyed the court.

Attorneys for Interior Secretary Gale Norton admit the information, in the form of e-mails traded among government attorneys, was erased. "[I]t was a mistake not to retain newly created backup tapes," they wrote back in April 2002.

But they had argued that no one should be punished for the incident because it occurred during the Clinton administration. And, they added, no one can bring the missing data back. [I kinda like that legal line of reasoning.]

Earl E. Devaney, Inspector General for the Interior Department, conducted his own investigation into the matter but couldn't find anyone to blame either. He noted that Babbitt, Shield and Justice attorneys "who were "were in the middle of this" refused to cooperate.

"So long as these persons remain silent, important questions concerning their actions and decisions remain unanswered," he wrote in an August 2002 report.

That is how the Appellate Court ruling is understood in Indian Country. Judge Lamberth still has the case, but he can't get to the facts. Oh, everyone needs to learn a word in Siksika today: iitssikohkitsimiop -- it means "where we have a black door" -- the higher courts in Canada and the US.

Cobell v Norton Links: Indian Trust, DoJ, DoI.

Enjoy, and remember, it happened under Clinton, so the Clenis did it, and what was lost can't be found, so no remedy is possible. Oh. I see MT thinks MB is the current author (silly software), the author is EBW.

Magnitude vs. Frequency

When a political discussion turns to broken campaign promises or "flip flops," standard rhetorical technique is to make a list of a number of examples of such change of position by one's political opponent. By flyspecking the record, any politician can be made to look wishy washy.

When done honestly, such lists of "flip flops" or broken promises can be useful and enlightening. There is, however, another dimension to the consistency scale. That dimension is the magnitude of the difference between the promise and the reality.

Let's take one example to demonstrate my point. In a March 3, 2001 radio address, President Bush made certain promises about the federal budget. In particular, he promised to "pay off $2 trillion of debt in the next decade" while keeping "the government from raiding the Social Security surplus."

It is apparent that Mr. Bush has broken that pledge. If we were compiling a list of "flip flops" or broken promises, that would justify either one entry or perhaps two (one for raiding the SS surplus and one for failing to pay down debt).

Such a listing would completely ignore the degree by which Mr. Bush has broken that pledge. After all, if Mr. Bush was on track to pay off only $1.5 trillion in debt, instead of gthe $2 trillion promised, he would have broken his pledge but the actual result would still be pretty good.

In order to come to grips with the nature of Mr. Bush performance compared to his promise, we need to ask not whether he has broken his pledge (he clearly has) but rather by how much he has broken it.

Mr. Bush's promise, in essence was to run a cumulative $2 trillion budget surplus in the current operations of ghe federal government. Only such a surplus would permit him to protect the SS surplus from being "raided" while paying down the debt.

Let's do a quick back of the envelope calculation to see how far off the mark Mr. Bush is.

The starting point for our caculations is the report from the Congressional Budget Office. As the report includes data on FY 2003-FY 2014, I will use a 12 year time frame instead of the ten years Mr. Bush used. That seems fair as it allows Mr. Bush two additional years to accumulate the $2 trillion in surpluses he promised.

CBO projects that the on-budget deficit (that is the deficit for the normal operations of government, without spending the Social Security and other trust fund surpluses) will be as follows (figures in $ billions):

FY 2003 536

FY 2004 574

FY 2005 521

FY 2006 491

FY 2007 519

FY 2008 546

FY 2009 554

FY 2010 554

FY 2011 468

FY 2012 347

FY 2013 359

FY 2014 353

Those operating budget deficits total $5,276,000,000,000. Thats $5.76 trillion. When the $2 trillion in debt Mr. Bush promised to pay off is added, our total rises to $7.276 trillion. But that is not all, far from it.

The CBO is contrained by law to make certain assumptions in its forecast. As CBO puts it:

By statute, CBO's baseline projections must estimate the future paths of federal revenues and spending under current laws and policies.

For instance, CBO assumes that the Bush tax cuts, which are scheduled to expire, will, in fact, expire. Mr. Bush is campaigning to make those cuts permanent. According to the CBO, the cost of making those cuts permanent will be $2.2 trillion:

Similarly, as noted above, the baseline must follow the assumption that all of the tax provisions set to expire over the next 10 years actually do so. However, if all of those provisions (except the higher personal exemptions for the alternative minimum tax) were extended, the projected deficit for 2014 would grow from 0.4 percent of GDP to 2.9 percent of GDP. The 10-year deficit would total 3.0 percent of GDP ($4.5 trillion) instead of 1.5 percent ($2.3 trillion), and debt held by the public at the end of 2014 would climb to 48.8 percent of GDP from 36.6 percent.

$4.5 trillion less $2.3 trillion yields a cost of $2.2 trillion. When added to the cumulative deficit above, that brings Mr. Bush $9.476 trillion short of his promise.

CBO did not take reform of the Alternative Minimum Tax into account. I think we should. Everyone , including Mr. Bush, agrees that it must be reformed. A different report by the CBO estimates that it would cost about $370 billion over a ten year period to index the AMT. That brings the shortfall to $9.846 trillion.

Mr. Bush has also proposed "opportunity zones" that the Washington Post reports will cots $74 billion over ten years. That brings Mr. Bush $9.920 trillion short of his pledge.

The CBO estimates also assume that no money will be spent in Iraq or Afghanistan after September 30 of this year. That is obviously not true. According to the Post, we are currently spending about $4 billion per month on the wars. How much longer will we be continue to be there? John McCain has estimated ten to twenty years. John Kerry has set a "goal" of being out of Iraq at the end of his first term. Let's assume five more years at $48 billion per year for an additional $240 billion. That brings Mr. Bush's shortfall to $10.160 trillion.

Mr. Bush also wants to privatize Social Security. He has promised that benefits will not be cut and that taxes will not be raised. The transition costs to private accounts, according to the Post, will be about $2 trillion. That brings our total to $12.160 trillion.

Mr. Bush advocates a great expansion of Health Savings Accounts. The Post cites the Congressional Research service as saying such accounts would cost $30-50 billion per year. Those accounts are designed not to have a large impact in the first ten years, so we will not include them in this analysis.

Mr. Bush has other proposals as well. for which we do not yet have good cost estimates. The Post reports:

In his acceptance speech in Madison Square Garden on Sept. 2, the president called for the expansion of health savings accounts, which provide tax breaks for families and small businesses; creation of new tax-preferred retirement savings accounts; and creation of lifetime savings accounts, which allow tax-free savings for tuition, retirement or even everyday expenses.
The "Agenda for America" also includes increasing testing and accountability measures for high schools ...

Bush has also promised to "ensure every poor county in America has a community or rural health center" and "double the number of people served by our principal job training program and increase funding for our community colleges."

I will not include any figures for those programs as I have no estimates but you can be sure that they will not be cheap.

Mr. Bush has not just broken his promise to pay down debt, balance the budget, and protect the Social Security surplus, he has shattered it by $12,160,000,000,000.

That is too big a number for me to wrap my mind around. Let's make it more personal.

About 131,000,000 tax returns will be filed this year. Mr. Bush has broken his promise of fiscal responsibility by about $92,824 per tax return. That is close to what many taxpayers pay for their first house.

When the GOP accuses John Kerry of being a flip flopper, ask whether any of his changes of position have cost $12 trillion.

Cobell v. Norton --- Recusal Denied

Via Howard Bashman, a three judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals has denied a motion to recuse Judge Royce Lamberth in the Individual Indian Trust Trust Fund Litigation known as Cobell v. Norton. That is a good thing.

I will leave it to Eric or MB to explain it to those who have not followed the long and twisted tale of the litigation. Perhaps the Department of the Interior will now have to actually account for a massive amount of money (potentially billions of dollars, if I remember correctly) it holds in trust for the benefit of certain individual Indians.

A copy of the opinion in pdf is here.

Pakistan/India Negotiations

One of the most dangerous potential hot spots in the world is in Kashmir, between India and Pakistan. With two nuclear powers and historical rivals making claims to Kashmir, the potential for disaster is huge.

Did you know that Pakistan and India are in negotiations over Kasmir?

If not, the reason is that you do not read Rodger Payne's blog.

Rodger is a Political Science Professor at the University of Louisville with particular expertise in foreign policy. Unlike many bloggers (including me), Rodger knows a whole lot about the subjects he discusses.

Not reading his blog is a very stupid idea. So stop it right now.

The Horserace - Big Lead Or Close Race?

What is the current status of the presidential election?

Conventional wisdom seems to be that President Bush has opened up a sizable lead.

Chris Bowers at MYDD disagrees, arguing that Kerry is not losing:

So am I delusional? Maybe, but I think Kerry's repeated strength among independents and the battleground combined with frequent questionable poll weighting shows that Kerry is at least equal to Bush right now. There remains the possibility that Party ID has shifted in favor of the GOP during the past two weeks, but I remain a skeptic on that front. If someone could track down the Party ID split for the recent AP, ICR, Time and Zogby polls, I would very much appreciate it.

Mark Kleiman thinks that Kerry is slightly behind and recommends getting back to work as the race is easily winnable for Kerry:

The perception that Kerry is blowing this thing threatens to be self-fulfilling. But I don't see it in the numbers. Bush has improved his position since the Democratic Convention. Averaged over the polls, Bush now enjoys a small lead, but that lead is shrinking rather than growing.

I say again: Relax, and get back to work.

Jane Galt thinks that George Bush has a significant lead and that Kerry is fading fast:

The bottom line is that Kerry muffed his convention -- made it all about Vietnam, which backfired, and didn't fix the big hole I've been ranting about all spring and summer, which is that no one has any very clear notion what this guy stands for, except election. He has yet to craft a consistent image for voters to hang their heart's desires upon. And he now has damned little time to do it. I never thought ABB was going to be enough to carry this election, and it appears the voters agree with me.

CNN citing a September 7-9 Time magazine poll showing Bush with an 11 point lead described the landscape as having undergone a "seismic voter shift"

Of course, as commenter WSW at MYDD points out, at this point in the 2000 race, the CNN tracking poll showed Gore with an eight point lead. CNN described that lead as "modest." Modest lead, seismic shift, what's the difference?

A number of polls show a very close race. Today's Rassumssen tracking poll has Bush ahead by less than a percentage point.

Investor's Business Daily has the race dead even through September 12 among likely voters and Kerry with a 2 point lead among registered voters.

Other polls show a more substantial lead for Bush.

AP/IPSOS has Bush up eight. The ICR poll ending September 12 has Bush up seven among likely voters and up 4 among registered voters.

What to make of all of that conflicting information? Ruy Teixeira at Donkey Rising educates us about how to look at the polling numbers:

Is Bush ahead by a little or a lot? Is it close to a tie ball game or has Bush surged to a commanding lead?

The conventional wisdom inclines to the latter not the former. The reason has a great deal to do with two persistent problems with contemporary polls that--at least at this point in time--tend to considerably inflate Bush's apparent lead. But once you dissect the available data with these problems in mind, a truer picture of the race comes into focus which suggests that the race continues to be very close.

The two problems are: (1) samples that have an unrealistic number of Republican identifiers and hence tend to favor Bush; and (2) the widespread and highly questionable practice of using likely voters (LVs) instead of registered voters (RVs) to measure voter sentiment this far before the election.

First, the issue of partisan distribution in samples. Lately, and very suddenly, many polls have been turning up more Republican identifiers than Democratic identifiers in their samples--in some cases, many more (as high as a 9-10 point Republican advantage).

How realistic is it to be suddenly turning up a Republican lead on party ID, much less a large one? Not very. The weight of the academic evidence is that, while the distribution of party ID among voters can and does change over time, it changes slowly, not in big lurches from week to week.

And the weight of the empirical evidence is that the distribution of party ID among voters has favored and continues to favor the Democrats. In 2000, the exit polls showed Democrats with a 4 point advantage over Republicans. In 1996, it was also 5 points; in 1996, it was 3 points and in 1988 it was also 3 points..

Here are Bush's leads in a number of recent polls, ordered by size of his lead, once the horse race question is weighted by the 2000 exit poll distribution (note: not all recent polls can be included because you need the horse race figures among Democrats, Republicans and independents separately to do this procedure and not all polls release these figures; in addition Zogby and Rasmussen results are party-weighted to begin with and therefore do not have to be re-weighted; RV results used unless only LV results available):

CBS News, September 6-8 RVs: +5

Zogby, September 8-9 LVs: +2

Rasmussen: September 10-12 LVs: +1

Fox News: September 7-8 LVs: +1

Washington Post, September 6-8 RVs: +1

Newsweek, September 9-10 RVs, -2

Gallup, September 3-5 RVs: -4

These data present a clear picture of a tight race, with Bush likely running a small lead.

There, I feel better already.

Consumers close their wallets...

More great economic news:

Retail Sales Down; Trade Gap Larger
Tue Sep 14, 2004 09:22 AM ET
By Jonathan Nicholson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales dipped in August and the U.S. gap with its international trade partners widened to a record level in the second quarter of the year, government reports released on Tuesday showed.

The Commerce Department said retail sales fell 0.3 percent in August -- more than the 0.1 percent drop that Wall Street analysts had been projecting -- but sales excluding autos rose 0.2 percent, matching expectations.

...

In a separate report, the department said the U.S. current account gap -- the broadest measure of trade and investment flows between the United States and the rest of the world -- widened again in the second quarter, growing to a record $166.18 billion. That was well above analysts' expectations for a $159.35 billion shortfall.

And remember all the hubbabaloo discredited John Lott and his fellow pseudoeconomists were
making regarding the leftward "bias" of economic headlines? It's clear that he's not reading print smaller than 12pt.

In the retail sales numbers, economists focused on the ex-autos numbers as a sign that consumer spending was still holding up fairly well, despite reports earlier this month of disappointing back-to-school retail sales.

"There was a concern that perhaps the retail numbers would come in very weak. They didn't," said Kevin Logan, senior economist with Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

"You can't say this was a strong report ... (But) it eliminates some of the pessimism that might have been gripping the fixed income market, pessimism about the economy," he said.

And lo and behold, Dick Cheney was right. EBay is in fact shouldering much of the economic recovery, as American consumer flock to the online auction site to sell off the family silver to pay this month's mortgage. Online sales increased 1.7%. Not to worry, of course, that clothing sales, in the peak of the back-to-school shopping spree, declined 1.4%.

If you want to read the report with just Bush Administration spin, versus So-Called-Liberal-Media spin, it's available from the Commerce Department.

Dog Shoots Man

Really. CNN reports:

A man who tried to shoot seven puppies was shot himself when one of the dogs put its paw on the revolver's trigger.

Jerry Allen Bradford, 37, was charged with felony animal cruelty, the Escambia County Sheriff's Office said Wednesday. He was being treated at a hospital for a gunshot wound to his wrist.

Bradford said he decided to shoot the 3-month-old shepherd-mix dogs in the head because he couldn't find them a home, according to the sheriff's office.

On Monday, Bradford was holding two puppies -- one in his arms and another in his left hand -- when the dog in his hand wiggled and put its paw on the trigger of the .38-caliber revolver. The gun then discharged, the sheriff's report said.

You are encouraged to provide your own punch line in comments. As for me, I have a comment and a question.

First, I would note that CNN has still not seen fit to run a story about James Monroe Mims.

My question is whether John Lott/Mary Rosh will report that incident as "self defense" or "accident" in his/her next book?

It's Your Debt

While Max was speaking, I was listening.

I clicked through a link to this page at the Center On Budget and Policy Priorities. The CBPP writes:

The 2004 deficit of $422 billion reveals a budget in much worse shape than CBO projected in early 2001. At that time, CBO projected a surplus in 2004 of $380 billion... As can be seen, the actual result for 2004 is $800 billion worse than projected in 2001. Nor is this result peculiar to 2004: over the ten-year period from 2002 to 2011, our current projections are about $870 billion worse on average each year than the projections issued in early 2001, or $8.7 trillion worse over the decade as a whole.

Calculations based on CBO and Joint Tax Committee data show that of the $8.7 trillion deterioration over the 2002-2011 period, $5.5 trillion is attributable to tax cuts, defense funding increases, and domestic program increases enacted by Congress. (The rest is due to economic or technical factors.) Tax cuts account for the majority of the $5.5 trillion deterioration that is due to the actions of policymakers. In other words, the tax cuts have increased the deficit more than all program increases combined.

Mr. Bush campaigned in 2000 in an environment of a large budget surplus that was projected to continue as far as the eye could see. On the stump, candidate Bush promoted his tax cuts by reminding voters that "Its your money."

The IRS estimates that there will be 130,597,000 individual tax returns this year.

If it was your money in 2000, it is your debt in 2004. An $8.7 trillion deterioration in our fiscal position works out to $66,617 per tax return.

Some may argue, with some merit, that all of that loss is not Mr. Bush's fault. The recession, the dot com bust, 9/11, and corporate scandals may have helped undermine our fiscal position.

The CBPP notes that of the $8.7 trillion deterioration, a full $5.5 trillion is attributable to policy choices. The last time I looked, the GOP controlled the White House and both Houses of Congress.

The $5.5 trillion deterioration in fiscal position due to policy choices works out to $42,114 per tax return.

That is about the price of a brand new 2004 BMW 530i.

This year, I have yet to hear Mr. Bush remind voters that "It's your debt."

A Successful Catastrophe

Avedon Carol just has a knack for locating great links. She recommends this interesting Richard Reeves column that discusses what might have happened if we had not invaded Iraq. Reeves notes an Atlantic column by James Fallows:

[A] couple of sentences in the current issue of the Atlantic Monthly seem etched in stone more than slapped on paper. James Fallows, the magazine's National Editor, in an article entitled "Bush's Lost Year" writes of spending the past two years with military, intelligence and diplomatic personnel at the "working level of America's anti-terrorism efforts". Most are Republicans, he says, many supported the decision to invade Iraq in March 2003. Next he writes:

"I have sat through arguments among soldiers and scholars about whether the invasion of Iraq should be considered the worst strategic error in American history -- or only the worst since Vietnam ...

Reeves lists seven factors in evaluating the result the alternative to invasion might have brought.

* The life of Iraqis would be what it was before we came. The tyranny of Saddam Hussein would continue, but it would be contained without threat to us. Evil, yes. But there is evil everywhere, beginning these days in western Sudan.

* We would be safer. There is danger everywhere in this age of terror, but our resources are bogged down in one place -- and could be there for many years. An example: those surveillance satellites that once were pointed at the Soviet Union and then at Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda have been pointed at Iraq for almost three years.

* Afghanistan would be in better shape. And Osama and al Qaeda might be gone or rendered less effective. We cut and ran to Iraq, without accomplishing that vital mission, leaving the country that sheltered Osama to be fought over, again, by warlords of the drug trade and the crazily puritanical Taliban.

* The United States would still be admired in most places and a feared superpower everywhere -- perhaps even liked a bit. Iraq, like Vietnam, has revealed the limits of our power, allowing enemeies everywhere to mock us.

* We would be engaged in trying to contain the greater dangers in our adversaries North Korea and Iran -- and the dangers in the lands of our allies, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. But, again, we choose to look away from the reality and threat in those places...

* We would be buying the weapons of mass destruction of the old Soviet Union. But now there is no money for that -- or for the problems of education and health care at home. There is only money for war and security.

* We would be playing a useful role in trying, as always, to find a way to peace between Israel and the Arabs. Instead, our Arabic speakers and other intellectual assets are tied down trying to find out what is happening in the cities and regions of Iraq again under the control of fundamentalist zealots and thugs trying to kill our young men and women.

* Lawrence Lindsey might still be President Bush's chief economic adviser. But he was fired for truth-telling, for saying our costs in Iraq would be between $100 billion and $200 billion.

His conclusion is as follows:

All that, I think, must have been way back in the President's mind when he branded his war a "castastrophic success". It is, without doubt, a successful catastrophe.

Tracking Ivan [2nd update]

From a telecom/internet company located in Grenada. This was sent in the last day or so.

With reference to staff in Grenada, 4 out of 6 involved people are accounted for. The country as you are probably aware has lost over half it's buildings. Over 90% of the ones left are damaged. The electricity will not be restored to the island for an estimated 3-4 months and communications are currently only possible from cellphones in a couple of places.

The office roof collapsed destroying the office and with the rain that followed, anything remaining undamaged was then drowned. (Technician) has collected all the hardware and is attempting to dry it out, however without electricity and with the current state of emergency, we can neither test it or fly it out of the country.

Apparently, the country is under military control; no people allowed in or out. "State of Disaster" has been proclaimed.

Also, it is being said that there is a general food shortage.

Another note:

Not been able to reach my machines in Jamaica. The Kingston Daily Gleaner is back up with text only pages. They report BOTH the primary and secondary submarine cables to Jamaica are severed:

http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20040913/lead/lead7.html

This has a surprising consequence:

The name servers are all in Jamaica (IANA lists other name servers but they are in lame delegation) so the TLD disappeared as well.

There is guidance on the subject in RFC 2182 (Section 3.1):

Secondary servers must be placed at both topologically and geographically dispersed locations on the Internet, to minimise the likelihood of a single failure disabling all of them.

NB: The cause for the disapearence of the .IQ (Iraq) ccTLD is similarly contrary to the guidance in RFC 2182, Selection and Operation of Secondary DNS Servers.

[I'll update as data comes in.]

No, you are not hallucinating...

The last post, and this one as well, are in fact authored by me.

I know I said my presence would be scarce-to-non-existent on Wampum due to my taking a staff job with KE04 here in Maine. Over the past three weeks, I logged more than 300 hours for the Democratic effort.

On Friday, having given some notice, I packed my desk and returned home. I'll be assisting the state ED with various projects over the next few weeks, so the parting was not fatal. Since I can probably count on one hand the readers I have here in Maine, I'll eventually give more detail as to why I chose to leave. I have to take some time, however, and figure out what information is helpful in winning in November and what merely gives comfort to the opposition.

Arrangements are in the works for me lend my experience in GOTV to friends in Florida for the last few weeks before the election. More on that as plans tighten up.

When the penny drops...and a defense of feminist behavior

I love Body and Soul, and it's founding editor, Jeanne D'Arc, and in my early days of blogging, viewed her as my mentor. As a rabid feminist myself, her recent post on misogynist language within the lefty blogosphere strikes a strong chord in me. I'm sad, however, in how long it has taken for that realization to take hold. For many of us women bloggers, particularly those whose blogs have been around for a while, the reality of engendered blogging hit home long ago. For all I respect what Markos has achieved, I questioned the fact that both his subject matter and guest bloggers are overwhelming male for the first time nearly two years ago. The "testosterone" factor of this election has been seized upon by a large segment of the lefty blogosphere, so much so that the basic "pocketbook" issues are often ignored by many.

That all said, I do take exception with the focus on Atrios as the embodiment of this pervasive undercurrent of misogyny on the Left. While Duncan may have exhibited of slip of the tongue (although I do accept his explanation), his actions over the past two years that I've been reading Eschaton indicate a deeper sensitivity to feminism (and racism as well) than I've enountered in most regions of our corner of the 'Net. There is definitely a dearth of feminism in much of what we read over here, but Dr. Black has actively sought to derail that tendency, at least in my experience as founder and editor of Wampum (which, for it's first year, was solely hosted by me, and saw much traffic from Eschaton.)

While words do sting, I'm personally an action kinda gal. I look for women on a blogger's sidebar, or them being given full control of content when the big cat is away. In both those instances, Atrios easily clears the bar.

Paying Attention

There is a lot to pay attention to right now. The third anniversary of 9/11 is upon us. The election is less than two months away. We have passed 1000 dead Americans in Iraq. The third hurricane of the season is bearing down on Florida. All of those issues are important but I do not wish to discuss any of them right now. Instead, I would like to call your attention to the sad story of one James Monroe Mims.

James Monroe Mims is a 53 year old, mentally ill Texan. In 1978, Mims was involved in a "domestic standoff" in which he allegedly shot at two Dallas Police officers. He was charged with two counts of attempted muder. I surmise from the brief news stories that he shot but did not kill the officers. Mims was never tried on those charges as the Texas courts found him to be mentally incompetent to stand trial. Mims suffers from schizophrenia.

As a result of his incompetence, Mins was confined at the Terrell State Hospital where he has remained for the last 26 years. A finding of incompetence to stand trial is not a final determination. Should a criminal defendant regain competence, he may still be put on trial for the underlying crime.

Accordingly, at various times over the last 26 years, Mims was brought before the court for a hearing to determine whether or not he was able to stand trial. He has always been found to remain incompetent due to his mental illness.

In February of this year, Mims was brought from the mental hospital to the Dallas County jail in preparation for another such hearing,

While awaiting his hearing, Mims received no mental health treatment. The hospital had sent along anti-psychotic medication and anti-seizure medication for Mims. He was never provided those meds while in the Dallas County jail. Some of the jailers made referrals of Mims to the jail psychiatric staff but no mental health professional appears to have seen Mims during his two months in the Dallas County jail.

Towards the end of March, the Dallas County jailers turned off the water to Mims' cell. Why they did so remains unclear. Some jailers contend that the water was turned off because Mims had flooded his cell. Investigators dispute that contention.

What is not in dispute is that Mims was left in his cell without water for thirteen days. You read that right, the Dallas County jail left a mentally ill human being locked in a cell without water for thirteen days. The Dallas Morning News reports:

A mentally ill inmate in the Dallas County jail nearly died in April after jailers cut off his drinking water for at least 13 days and denied him his psychiatric medications for two months, an internal investigation by the Sheriff's Department found.

James Monroe Mims, 53, was rushed to Parkland Memorial Hospital on April 9 after jail trusties found him on the floor of his cell, semiconscious, incoherent and soaked in his own waste, investigators wrote in their report.

At Parkland, emergency room nurses immediately saw that Mr. Mims was critically ill, suffering from severe dehydration and kidney failure. He had pressure sores on his shoulder, back and hip, indicating that he had been lying unaided for a long period of time, nurses told investigators.

Mr. Mims spent three months in Parkland, the first of those months in intensive care, before doctors pulled him through, family members said.

Mims's dehydration resulted in kidney damage that will require him to undergo dialysis three times a week for the rest of his life.

It is hard for me to understand how a jailer can watch, day by day, as a mentally ill human being is slowly dehydrated to a point near death. The utter lack of humanity is just startling.

Unfortunately, this is not the first time I have felt compelled to write on the subject of the criminal justice system's inhumanity towards the mentally ill. Please see this guest post at Body and Soul. That post told the story of James Carpenter, a mentally ill, homeless, panhandler caught up in the criminal justice system in Alabama:

In 2000, James Carpenter was arrested for the misdemeanor of panhandling outside a fast food restaurant. He was taken the Mobile County Jail. He never left the jail alive.

Although the jailers knew that Carpenter was mentally ill, he received no treatment. He also was never taken before any judge for a bail hearing or for any other hearing.

After being arrested, Carpenter was stripped naked and placed in solitary confinement. He was cuffed at his hands and ankles and chained to a bed. Although guards brought food and placed it in his cell, the chains were too short for Carpenter to be able to reach the food. He lost 23 pounds in fifteen days.

Jail procedure required the guards to check in on Carpenter several times every hour. They failed to do so, leaving him unwatched for extended periods.

The handcuffs and ankle shackles rubbed against James Carpenter’s skin and caused ulcers at his wrists and ankles. A flesh eating bacteria entered his body through the wounds. He never received any medical treatment for the wounds or the infection. Fifteen days after being incarcerated in the Mobile County Jail, James Carpenter died from the infection.

An attorney retained by the Mims family is quoted as saying that "If somebody denied water to a horse or a dog for two weeks, they'd be prosecuted." I suspect that a story about an animal shelter failing to provide water for dogs for nearly two weeks would have generated more attention, both from the press and from officials, than has the story of James Monroe Mims.

Mims' story has not received a lot of publicity. Google News reveals that a few media outlets in Texas ran small stories about him. I find no media outlet outside of Texas that has run the story.

One Texas news outlet led its coverage of the story as follows:

The Dallas County jail is about to be hit with another lawsuit - this one on behalf of a mentally-ill man.

To them, the big news is that a law suit is about to be filed. The fate of a mentally ill man being denied water for at least 13 days is secondary.

The blogosphere has not filled in for the lack of media coverage.To her credit, TalkLeft posted about Mims. I have seen no other references to the story and a Google search for "James Monroe Mims" turns up nothing.

The reaction of Texas officials has been worse than the media. The Dallas County District attorney, Bill Hill, was uncommited about whether the treatment of James Monroe Mims even warrants an investigation.

Mr. Hill's spokeswoman, Rachel Horton, said the district attorney's office would consider an investigation if Mr. Finn requested one.

There you have it. A mentally ill man was denied water for at least thirteen days because some jail employee was afraid that he might have to mop the floor. As a result, a human being almost died and suffered kidney damage that will require him to undergo thrice weekly dialysis. The decision to turn off the water was inhuman (indeed, we would be outraged if someone did that to a dog). The decision costs hundreds of thousands of dollars (one month in an intensive care unit, two more months in a hospital and a lifetime of dialysis). What is the reaction to that scandal?

The blogosphere is more concerned with the history of fonts and typewriters.

The media outside of Texas studiously ignore the story.

One media outlet in Texas thinks that the story is about whether the Dallas jail gets sued.

The repsonsible elected local official allows that if someone is going to make a big stink about one crazy prisoner, he will consider whether or not an investigation is warranted.

It is a sad story, and not just for James Monroe Mims and his family.

Thanks for your attention. You may now return to discussing the exact characteristics of an IBM Selectric circa 1970.

Political Program of the Hizb ut-Tahrir

I've been thinking about the mail I keep getting from Naveed Butt, spokesman of Hizb ut-Tahrir in Pakistan. There is really very little direct exposure to the political programs of political parties in Central Asia in the US press, and some are as different from Trans-Atlantic political discourse as Indian (feathers, not dots) Sovereignty. So here is some of the August 4th statement: In order to continue state oppression on Hizb ut-Tahrir, President Karimov blames Hizb for bomb blasts, which subsequent investigation has validated, followed by all of the August 21st statement: Shaukat Azizs victory proves that in a democratic ruling system the actual representation of the people is not possible.

So, for the benefit of Trans-Atlantic political discourse is a statement of the political program, and its rationale, of a political party that seeks to re-establish the Caliphate -- a subject of Juan Cole's post of today.

The August 4th note:

In order to continue state oppression on Hizb ut-Tahrir, President Karimov blames Hizb for bomb blasts

...

Currently Hizb's activists constitute the largest number of prisoners in the Central Asian jails. Moreover, everyone knows that Hizb is a political party and considers participating in armed struggle to achieve her goals, a violation of Shari'ah. Furthermore, getting rid of the Capitalist system and establishing Khilafah is a political change, requiring political and intellectual struggle, not military preparation. Hizb ut-Tahrir aims at mobilising the masses by producing political and intellectual awareness in them, so that they may achieve their rights by implementing Islam.

Today, people have reached the conclusion that if they were to gain liberation form the current slavery, it is absolutely imperative for the Ummah to unify and live under Islam. Khilafah is the only ruling system capable of unifying Muslims under a single leadership and implementing Islam, whilst the democratic ruling system is incapable of achieving either of the goals.

The August 21st note:

Shaukat Aziz's victory proves that in a democratic ruling system the actual representation of the people is not possible

Shaukat Aziz's recent victory has shown that the actual representation of the masses is not possible through democracy. In democracy, the law-making is left to a specific group of people, namely the legislative assemblies, therefore people with vested interests are well aware that it is absolutely imperative for them or their representatives to be a part of this assembly in order to protect their interests and cover up for their crimes. It is for this very reason that the representatives of these powerful lobbies and agents of imperialist forces never shy away from investing millions of rupees or even sacrificing their loyal activists to achieve this. In this political atmosphere the real leadership and representation of the people is completely sidelined as they do not have the sheer amount of money nor the brute force required to run for election. Today 70% of the total population of Pakistan living in villages have no choice but to vote for the very group of people who are oppressing them the most and accept them as their representatives. This issue of representation is not specific to Pakistani democracy but is intrinsic to the democratic system itself. For example the politicians in America also depend on capitalist multinational companies and powerful lobbies to provide them with funds, political support and security. After securing the rule, the top priority of these politicians is to safeguard the very interests of these forces rather than the interests of the people who elected them. The war in Iraq is a clear proof of this fact, which was fought in the interest of the Oil lobby by deceiving the masses at large. Hence even in a democracy like America, the members of the legislative assemblies are actually the representatives of the powerful lobbies rather than that of the masses. Similarly the democratic governments of Australia, Spain, South Korea etc. sent their troops on the dictates of the American imperialist, casually brushing aside the majority opinion of their peoples.

Khilafah is the only ruling system where actual representation of the people is possible. In Khilafah people elect their representatives to the Majlis-e-Ummah to highlight their problems as well as account the Khaleefah and state officials. Since the Majlis does not have the powers to legislate laws, as legislation only belongs to Allah (swt), nor do the elected representative receives any special benefits, the corrupt elements do not find it worthwhile to run for its membership. As a result those people are pushed for nomination that are the real representatives of the Ummah. And they take on this responsibility only to serve the people for the pleasure of Allah (swt) without looking to gain any worldly benefits.

No Boy Scout

It has becone apparent that President Bush is basing his reelection efforts on the character issue. He and his surrogates attack Mr. Kerry's character while promoting Mr. Bush as the candidate with good character. Mr. Kerry is described as a malleable flip-flopper who lies about his life experiences, his record, and his plans. Mr. Bush is described as a direct, bold, and resolute leader.

As my oldest son approaches eleven, it is natural to think about the character issue in terms of the Boy Scout Oath and Motto. The Oath and Motto may be found here.

That site notes that:

The Boy Scouts of America promote character values in their oath, law, motto and slogan... The Boy Scout Oath, Law, Motto and Slogan are excellent character guidelines for any group, organization or individual.

With that in mind, I thought it might be useful to see how the current administration stacks up against the standards of the Boy Scouts.

That is not to say that I would wish for a President who always acts like a perfect Boy Scout. Some of the Scout standards are more important than others in choosing a political leader. For instance, it seems more important to have a President who is prepared for unexpected events than one who is always obedient to authority or friendly to those who oppose American interests. I presume that all major candidates for President are clean in the sense of personal hygiene. Nonetheless, the some of the qualities we expect from Boy Scouts may shed some light on the choice of political leaders.

The Boy Scout Motto is "Be Prepared." A political leader has to be able to anticipate events abd to react quickly to those events. Mr. Bush has failed on that score. He vacationed while Al Qaeda prepared to attack New York and Washington. He then continued to listen to My Pet Goat after being told that America was under attack.

He has admitted to miscalculating the extent and nature of the resistence in Iraq. That failure has reulted in the loss of both blood and treasure. As a result of that failure to be prepared, things in Iraq are bad by almost any measure (pdf) and seem to be better worse, not better.

What exactly was Mr. Bush's plan for dealing with North Korea in the event it decided to create weapons grade plutonium? If Iran decides to become a nuclear power, how does Mr. Bush plan to respond? If a hot spot should erupt in Korea, or in Taiwan, or along the India-Pakistan border while our army is bogged down in Iraq, what are Mr. Bush's plans for projecting American military power?

A second aspect of being prepared is to have contingency plans if things do not work out as you hoped. Mr. Bush had no plan to pacify and secure Iraq when we were not greeted as liberators. He had no plan to capture bin Laden when the Afghans to whom he outsourced the job failed to deliver. When Mr. Bush's tax cuts failed to result in robust economic growth, even decent job growth, or a balanced budget, what was plan B? Mr. Bush made stem cell policy on the presumption that the there were sufficient existing lines of sufficient quality to permit important research to go forward. What was his back up plan for that research in the event that he was wrong?

In order to be able to implement contingency plans to correct policy gone askew, one must first acknowledge that the policy has, in fact, gone askew. Mr. Bush's self proclaimed resolve seems to prevent him from facing facts. If that is correct, then the character trait Mr. Bush promotes, resolve, is actually a detriment to a character trait prized in Boy Scouts and Presidents, namely preparation.

Mr. Bush fails to live up to the Boy Scout motto. What about the Boy Scout Oath? Among other things, Boy Scouts take an oath or make a promise to obey the Boy Scout law. The Scout law is a series of 12 character issues that Scouts pledge to follow. How has the administration done on those issues?

First, a Scout pledges to be trustworthy:

A Scout tells the truth. He keeps his promises. Honesty is part of his code of conduct. People can depend on him.

Does the current administration tell the truth? Does it keep its promises? Is it honest? Can people depend on the word of the current administration?

Matthew Yglesias recently wrote the following:

The fact that George W. Bush lies constantly about everything he does is very relevant to discussing his performance as commander-in-chief. If I had my druthers this issue would be talked about by noting that he lies about Iraq ("my choice was to trust the word of a madman"), about Libya (where the deal had nothing to do with Iraq), about North Korea (where the US, and not the DPRK, was cheating on the agreed framework), about tax policy (among other things, said his plan cut taxes for everyone when it didn't), about health care policy (left $50 billion or so off the pricetag for his Medicare bill), and about education policy (keeps saying people either "oppose" or want to "water down" NCLB when they actually want to increase federal spending aimed at NCLB implementation).

In addition to those examples, I have previously documented a pattern of conduct by the administration that is far from trustworthy. See for example, George W. Bush as Eddie Haskell, To Tell The Truth, Hall of Fame, Lies, Distortions and Deception, and Promise Breakers.

A second character trait of a Boy Scout is Loyalty. The current administraton certainly demands unwavering loyalty. For Mr. Bush, however, loyalty seems to be a one way street. Was Mr. Bush loyal to House Republicans when the administration witheld the actual cost estimates of the Medicare prescription drug plan from Republican members? Was the administration loyal to Army Chief of Staff General Eric K. Shinseki who made the mistake of accurately trestifying about the number of troops needed to provide security in Iraq?

Was the administration loyal to Larry Lindsey who was fired in part for telling the truth about the cost of the Iraq war? The Washington Post reported that:

The sources said Bush decided to get rid of Lindsey after the economist told The Wall Street Journal in mid-September that a war with Iraq could cost up to $200 billion, at a time when Bush was not confirming he planned any such attack.

"That made it clear Larry just didn't get it," one official said.

For more examples of the administration's "loyalty" to fellow Republicans please see Count Your Fingers.

A Boy Scout also pledges to be Friendly, Courteous and Kind. Perhaps someone should tell Dick Cheney that telling a member of the United States Senate to "F*** yourself" on the floor of the Senate is not friendly nor courteous nor kind.

As for Mr. Bush himself, Trish Wilson reports that Mr. Bush has a history of being less than friendly and courteous as well. In 1987, Bush, upset at some things written about his father, approached Al Hunt of the Wall Street Journal in a restaurant and in front of Hunt's wife and four year old daughter said, "You no-good f***ing son of a bitch, I will never f***ing forget what you wrote." That hardly seems kind or friendly and it is certainly not courteous.

A Boy Scout promises to be Thrifty. Mr. Bush inherited a record budget surplus which was projected to remain in surplus indefinately. Under Bush's watch, the surplus has disappeared and the country now faces massive deficits for as far as the eye can see. Spending has sky rocketed under Mr. Bush at the same time he has reduced revenue. That may be a lot of things (stupid, risky, and irrespeonsible for three) but thrifty it is not.

A Scout promises to be Brave. Mr. Bush's efforts to "game the system" to avoid going to Vietnam to fight a war he supported do not demonstrate great personal courage. Neither does his refusal to allow people with whom he disagrees attend his campaign events. Mr. Bush may indeed be personally courageous but I will need to see some evidence of it before being convinced.

This post is getting overlong so in the interest of brevity, I will concede that Mr. Bush is clean (although it seems that he has a dirty mouth), cheerful, obedient, and reverent.

I do not know that it would be good to have a President who always exhibits all of the characteristics of the Boy Scout motto and Scout law. I do know that Mr. Bush has exhibited character traits that are not in keeping with what I hope my older son learns as a Scout.

Cole's getting trashed

See his post at http://www.juancole.com/2004_09_01_juancole_archive.html#109470928365123509.
Its the 51st state morons. The ones who used to locate Brownsville Texas adjacent to Nicaragua and now site it on the eastern side of Lake Med.

He concludes with this: If I had been a younger man (I am 51) I would have gone to fight al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

I still think that Rep. Barbara Lee (D, Berkeley) has the better view -- criminal investigation, not military operations, was possible after the 9/11 conspirators carried out their crimes, with less risk to the United States, and with a greater probability of success, than a series of botched military missions in Central Asia. I don't think Professor Cole's age is any barrier to his participation in the prosecution of al-Qaeda, the real barrier to his participation was the policy to use comat arms, men in the 19 to 35 age range, and, in the military context of the Taliban's force structure and the available oppositional forces on the ground (chiefly the Northern Alliance), absurdly exotic weapons.

Professor Cole's real disability is his intellect and his disinclination to follow orders that are tactically, and strategically dumb, and frequently cross the line drawn at Nuremberg.

Speaking of which, I came across a wicked good quote this morning: in the infantry, the cheapest hardware to replace is personnel.

Ensuring Tribal Sovereignty and Working to Improve the Lives of Native Americans

[via Triballaw]

Since Wampum is one of the very few blogs that covers Indian issues, I'm posting the entire text of the KE04 message "Ensuring Tribal Sovereignty and Working to Improve the Lives of Native Americans", and I suppose I should annotate it as time allows, since few non-Indian readers will have the context to form judgements on the KE04 message. Put your questions or comments in the comments and I'll work on them as they come up.

Ensuring Tribal Sovereignty and Working to Improve the Lives of Native Americans

John Kerry and John Edwards have a comprehensive agenda to improve the lives of Native Americans. Kerry and Edwards will work every day to promote tribal sovereignty. While there are a number of successes in Indian Country, in these times of economic hardship - worsened by the policies of the Bush administration - John Kerry and John Edwards recognize that the Federal government must partner with tribes to improve access to health care, provide more educational opportunities, and strengthen economic development efforts. The Kerry-Edwards comprehensive agenda includes:

PROMOTING SOVEREIGNTY

• Strengthening the Government-to-Government Relationship. As president, John Kerry will support regular and meaningful consultation and collaboration with Indian tribal governments in the development of regulatory practices that significantly or uniquely affect their communities.

• Trust Reform. John Kerry and John Edwards seek to work with tribes to continue meaningful and accountable trust reform.
  

IMPROVING ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE

• Increase funding for the Indian Health Service. The average life expectancy for Native Americans is 55 years, 17 years less than the national average. But in spite of this need, the per capita expenditure for Native Americans is only one-third of the average annual expenditure for Medicaid assistance. The Indian Health Service is severely under funded, and John Kerry and John Edwards support meaningful increases for this vital means of providing health care to Native communities.

• Expand and Improve Medicaid and CHIP. Because of higher rates of poverty, Native Americans are more likely to be eligible for Medicaid. However, Native Americans are less likely to be enrolled in coverage and often providers don't participate. John Kerry has proposed to strengthen and expand Medicaid to provide a secure safety net that works for Native Americans and all Americans.

• Preventative Care. Kerry-Edwards support preventative care for Indian Country, including initiatives for diabetes and cancer screenings.

• Native American Seniors. Kerry-Edwards will strengthen programs that help seniors including Medicare and Medicaid and help Native American seniors get better access to health care.
  

BUILDING INFRASTRUCTURE

• Roads in Indian Country. One of the greatest barriers to economic development is the lack of adequate roads in Indian Country. While states spend $4,000 to $5,000 per mile for road maintenance annually on average, the federal government spends only $500 per mile annually on average, the federal government spends only $500 per mile for roads in Indian Country. John Kerry and John Edwards support increased funding for roads and other infrastructure projects in Indian Country.

• Housing. Forty percent of the homes in tribal communities are overcrowded and need repairs. John Kerry and John Edwards will work to improve homeownership and to build safe, affordable housing in Indian Country.
  

STIMULATING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

• Small Businesses. In 1997, there were almost 200,000 Native-owned businesses employing almost 300,000 and generating $34.3 billion in revenue. A Kerry-Edwards administration will help increase loans to Native-owned small businesses through the Small Business Administration (SBA). John Kerry has cosponsored the Native American Small Business Development Act. This legislation would create a permanent Office of Native American Affairs at SBA and would create a new grant program to assist American Indians and Alaska Natives.

• Job Creation. After inheriting an economy that created 23 million jobs over the previous eight years, the Bush administration has presided over a loss of 1.8 million private sector jobs. John Kerry and John Edwards have a plan to create millions of high paying jobs in their first term. Many tribes still suffer from high employment and low outside investment. John Kerry and John Edwards will make Indian Country an important part of their job creation plan.
  

CREATING EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES

• Education Infrastructure. The Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) school system is only one of two federally operated school systems. With an estimated over $2 billion backlog for school repairs in these BIA schools, Kerry supports repairing and building new schools for this county's American Indian children.

• Elementary and Secondary Education. Fifty-seven percent of fourth grade American Indian and Alaska Native were reading below basic achievement levels in 2000. A Kerry-Edwards administration will work to improve the reading levels of this country's Native American children, including incorporating culturally relevant curriculum.

• Tribal Colleges. John Kerry supports increased funding for tribal colleges. Kerry has written to President Bush opposition his efforts to limit set-asides for tribal colleges.
  

REDUCING CRIME AND PROMOTING TRIBAL JUSTICE

• Improving Law Enforcement Resources. Many law enforcement agencies in Indian Country are under funded and understaffed. John Kerry and John Edwards support providing resources for law enforcement in Indian Country and promoting state-tribal cooperative agreements to reduce crime.

• Tribal Courts. John Kerry and John Edwards support increased funding for tribal courts.
  

HOMELAND SECURITY

• Protecting our Borders and our Nation. Because of their strategic locations, tribes are in a position to be effective partners in the area of homeland security. The newly created Office of Homeland Security seeks to coordinate federal programs with state and local governments. Missing from the equation are tribal governments. John Kerry will work to ensure that tribal governments take their place along with state and local governments to protect the security of America including advocating specific legislative changes to assure tribal governments have an equal place at the table. He will also create a Native American position in the Department of Homeland Security to ensure that tribal governments are fully represented.
  

PROTECTING THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT

• Energy Development. Almost 15 percent of Indian households lack electricity. Because of this and other shortfalls, Kerry and Edwards support the creation and funding of an office at the Department of Energy dedicated to energy issues in Indian Country. An integral part of the Kerry-Edwards energy plan is developing alternative sources of energy, and he seeks to partner with tribal governments to explore the alternative energy sources such as wind and solar power in Indian Country.
  
• Protecting Natural Resources. Indian tribes hold over 50 million acres of land, approximately 2% of the United States. As president, John Kerry will work cooperatively with tribes to ensure that our Nation's natural resources are preserved.
  

APPOINTING NATIVE AMERICANS TO KEY ADMINISTRATION POSITIONS AND TO THE JUDICIARY

• Appointing Native Americans. John Kerry will work to appoint Native Americans to key positions in the Department of the Interior, the Department of Health and Human Services, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Department of Homeland Security, among other agencies. He also will work to appoint Native American judges to the federal judiciary. John Kerry will re-open the doors to the White House and will appoint a Native American to a senior position in the Office of Intergovernmental Affairs as his liaison to the Native American community in recognition of the government-to-government relationship.
  

John Kerry is Working for Greater Native American Rights and Opportunities

John Kerry Has Supported Greater Sovereignty & Recognition for Native American Tribes - In the Senate, John Kerry has worked for greater respect of sovereignty and more recognition for Native American Tribes. In his first year in the Senate, Kerry voted repeatedly to protect the rights of the White Earth Band reservation in northern Minnesota. Kerry voted against a bill on land claims that "was opposed by most of the leaders of the White Earth Band of Chippewa Indians." Kerry cosponsored the Wampanoag Indian Claims Settlement Act to help settle land claims in his home state of Massachusetts. When the Bush Administration and the BIA were slow to assist the Nipmuc tribe's claims, Kerry was "helpful, hosting a meeting with Nipmuc tribal members in his Washington office and urging the BIA to expedite its decision." John Kerry has also supported greater rights for the Navajo and Hopi tribes in their land claims in the west and in 1992, Kerry voted for a bill to grant federal recognition of the Lumbee Tribe in North Carolina. As President, John Kerry will continue to work on behalf of the rights of sovereignty and recognition for Native American tribes. [NY Times, 12/14/85; 99th Congress, S. 1452; S. 2545; 100th Congress, 1454; Boston Herald, 9/10/01; Roll Call vote 1992, #35]

Kerry Works for More Health Care and Education Funding for Indigenous Americans - John Kerry understands the importance of quality education and health care for Indigenous Americans and that is why he has worked to provide more funding for Native American health and academic programs. Kerry has consistently voted for increased health care including restoring $50 million for Native American health facilities and, as recently as March of 2003, Kerry voted to increase funding for Native America Health Services and to "fulfill the U.S. commitment to provide health care to American Indians and Alaska Natives." In 1995, John Kerry voted against the Republican plan to devastate Native American education programs and voted to increase education funding by $26.7 million. Additionally, John Kerry has worked to support greater funding for family assistance grants and social services by voting to set aside a greater share of funds for Indigenous Americans. As President, John Kerry will improve health care services for Native Americans and will offer every American the same health care plan that is given to the President and Member of Congress. [Senate Roll Call votes 1990, # 64; 1995, #377 & #417; 2003, # 87; Kerry remarks to Mercy Medical Center, Des Moines, IA, 5/16/03]

John Kerry Assists Economic Growth Opportunities for Native American Small Businesses - As the former chairman and current ranking member of the Senate Small Business Committee, John Kerry has worked for greater economic opportunities for Native Americans. Kerry cosponsored the Native American Small Business Development Act. This legislation would create a permanent "Office of Native American Affairs" and would start a grant program, known as Native American Development grants, to assist Native Americans. Additionally, "it would establish two pilot programs to try new means of assisting Native American communities." [108th Congress, S.1123; Congressional Record, 5/22/03]

John Kerry Voted to Fund the Smithsonian National Museum of the American Indian - John Kerry was a cosponsor of the law which authorized the National Museum of the American Indian as part of the Smithsonian Institution in 1989. Additionally, Kerry cosponsored resolutions recognizing "1992 as the Year of the American Indian" and designating the Month of November "National American Indian Heritage Month." [101st Congress, S. 978; 102nd, S.J.RES.217; 104th, S. Res. 191; 106th, SJRES 216; 107th, SJRES. 118]

John Kerry: On the Record for Native Americans

John Kerry is Wants Greater Economic Opportunities for Native Americans - "Our legislation will ensure that our Native American communities receive the adequate assistance they need to help start and grow small businesses." [Congressional Record, 5/22/03]

Kerry Worked to Speed Decisions by the BIA - When the BIA was slow to assist the Nipmuc tribe's claims, Kerry was "helpful, hosting a meeting with Nipmuc tribal members in his Washington office and urging the BIA to expedite its decision." For the Mashpee Wampanoag, John Kerry, has "tried to persuade the bureau to not to let the process drag any longer." [Boston Herald, 9/10/01; Cape Cod 7/15/02]

John Kerry Supported Better Housing Programs for Native Americans - John Kerry cosponsored the housing assistance reforms to provide better treatment for the "Native American Housing Assistance and Self-Determination Act." [105th Congress, S. 2366]

www.johnkerry.com

Slightly reformatted from the original, to suit my æsthetics and MT's.

When is a Hawai'ian a Hawai'ian?

[from the Hui Malama I Na Kupuna O Hawai'i Nei, via Triballaw]

To evade NAGPRA ... er ... to serve the interest of Native Hawai'ians, the Bishop Museum is now asserting that under federal law it qualifies as a "Native Hawaiian organization". The way the Native American Graves Protection and Repatriation Act game is played, if two "Native organizations" differ about the disposition of materials held by a museum, the museum can defer surrender of the materials, grave goods and human remains, until the dispute between the two "Native organizations" is resolved. If the Bishop claim of "Native Hawaiian" status is upheld, and in view of Rice v Cayetano, that is not impossible, the Bishop "curatorial" claim on Native Hawaiian materials looks pretty golden.

http://www.bishopmuseum.org/NAGPRAGuidlines.html

Days of Rain scheduled, read a book

Bob Graham's book "Intelligence Matters" is out, just in time as we duck under three days of grey and rain.

Pop Quiz

I don't know how anyone can keep a straight face around Colin Powell. He's claiming that Iran should be the target of some Security Council authorized "punative actions". The cause of course is the enrichment "story".

Meanwhile, in an interview published today, Donald Rumsfeld claimed that money and people are channeled from Iran to fuel the insurgency in Iraq.

The question isn't "if", its "when".

So, putting on your little Ich-bin-der-Kissenger-tinfoilhüte, answer the following:

how many weaponized assemblies of fissile materials (aka "warheads") are possessed by the Musharraf Government of Pakistan (military dictatorship established by coup, domestically viewed as Americans-by-Proxy), and how much fissile materials not yet weaponized is possessed by the State of Pakistan? [Ans: 585-800 kg of HEU, enough for 30-55 HEU weapons, plus a small but unknown quantity of weapons grade plutonium, sufficient for an estimated 3-5 PU weapons. Extra credit for coverage of tritium (3H).]

same again for the Government of India (democracy)?

how many enemies, internal and external, does the Musharraf military dictatorship have now? how many when the Americans start offensive opperations in Iran? how many when the Americans attempt to invest Iran?

can the Soviet Union, er, the Federation of Independent States, afford to remain neutral when the Americans deploy stand-off munitions (cruise missiles) against strategic targets in a non-belligerant Central Asian State? when the Americans deploy aircraft and armor "at-will" against lightly armed infantry? when the Americans start urban targeting?

how will the introduction of surface-to-air weapons change the balance of forces in the Iraqi theater of operations? in the Iranian theater of operations? in the Pakistani theater of operations? in the Afgan theater of operations? in the Occupied West Bank and Gaza theaters of operations? in the Gulf States Forward Bases (Kuwait, Qutar, Saudi) theaters of operations?

how many nuclear weapons will be placed under the control of local commanders during the Central Asian War, and how many will be used, on what targets, and in what order?

One last question. Is starting a nuclear war the only way to stop a nuclear war?

Oops! one more last question. When, after all the dust, both the hot and simply bothersome, settles and no HEU, other than the HEU salted by the mainiacs in Pakistan, and the litter left by the Chinese, is found, how will Team America re-spin the exercise?

Update: Reuters reports that Hassan Rowhani spent two days in meetings in Holland, currently the presiding state of the European Union, and that in Parlimentary debate on the issue of Iran's enrichment program and IAEA inspections, Dutch Foreign Minister Bernard Bot warned that if the UN Security Council were to get involved in the controversy over Iran's nuclear program it would spell the end of inspections in Iran.

Inspections that yeild the wrong results have been a bother to the Bush regime. I understand why they want to get the IAEA out of Iran. They can't be trusted to get the right results.

Posted by EBW at 09:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Bush bats a thousand

Breaking News from ABCNEWS.com:

An Associated Press count of Iraq casualties shows U.S. military deaths there have passed 1,000.

Hurricane Francis impacts Networks

via NANOG (Sean Donelan, 5 updates, this specific entry was loaded just over1,000 times on Sept 7th.)

Since the FCC no longer makes outage reports public, folks will have to obtain their information from other sources. [NB. The non-release of outage event data policy is one of those post-9/11 things. If you think that policy serves a public purpose, don't read wampum.]

The networks in Broward, Palm Beach, Martin, Brevard counties appear to be the most impacted. Cellular had problems due to wireless sites being without power. The wireless industry brought in 500 new generators in advance of the hurricane, but needed to wait until the hurricane passed before sending them out to the cell sites. Miami and Orlando also have sites down due to power issues and connectivity to local carriers.

The various local access line providers in Florida, Florida has a lot of tiny LATAs and phone companies, report some access lines are down but haven't published any counts. Cable networks have the same issues with local cable service. No reports of damage to telephone central offices or cable headends.

Due to power outages and local access network problems, bank networks and cash machines are out of service in most of the affected counties.

No reports of problems to any NAPs, POPs, data centers or fiber trunks. They generally have permanent generators. So if you have local connectivity, Internet access is working. Streaming audio/video from Florida television and radio stations over the Internet did not have any problems.

Some WiFi providers are once again offering free WiFi service in the affected counties, if you can reach a working hotspot (with local power and local network connectivity).

Update: gas #1
> Any details on the status of natural gas lines in FL, and approximately
> how many facilities use such for generator power vs diesel?

Natural gas is available in most parts of Florida. Like most utilities, service continues until disrupted. Once disrupted, repairs follow the typical priority order (utility, emergency services, television/radio
stations, others). Natural gas pipelines require various compressor stations throughout the pipeline system.

The Florida governor has issued an order to regulate gas supplies in the state. It gives emergency workers, military operations and cleanup crews priority for the next 7 days. The Florida Highway Patrol will provide escorts for tanker truks. The Florida Department of Environmental Protection is tasked with coordinating fuel distribution. The US Environmental Protection Agency has waved certain clean air fuel forumalation requirements to permit the use of fuel from other states.

Update #2
Sprint reports 15,000 customers affected in its service areas (generally central florida). Bell South reports 7596 trouble reports in in its service areas (generally eastern florida). I haven't seen any numbers from Verizon yet.

For comparison, after Hurricane Charley 250,000 Sprint customers were without service according to automated monitoring systems, and 25,000 Verizon customers were without service.

Wireless/Cellular (from Florida's EOC website)
Cingular: 93% of normal
AT&T(Ft. Lauderdale/Miami): 82%
AT&T(Ft. Myers): 97%
AT&T(Daytona Beach) 96%
AT&T(Polk): 97%
AT&T(West Palm Beach): 38%
Nextel: 85%
T-Mobile: 75%
Alltell: 96%
Sprint(Miami): 76%
Sprint(Orlando): 81%
Sprint(Jacksonville): 98%
Sprint(Tampa): 98%
Sprint(Ft. Myers): 98%
Verizon: 85%

Update #3:
The Florida State Emergency Response Team is no longer reporting carrier or county specific information about the impact of Hurricane Frances on the telecommunications infrastructure. Only summary information is being given out.

Wire Line: 205,564 customers OUT OF SERVICE in the areas impacted by Hurricane Frances
Wireless: Average of 70% customers WITH SERVICE in the areas impacted by Hurricane Frances

County and utility specific information about electric power is being released. 3,280,252 million customers are without power.

Due to a generator failure, 292 Sprint wireless towers in Polk, Pasco, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Manatee, Hardee, Sarasota and Charlotte counties were disrupted. There is no estimated time for restoration of power to the Sprint switch serving the towers.

Update #4:
Florida EOC reports 1.1 million wireline customer outages state-wide. 30% cell phone coverage outage reported. Coordinating communication set up for priority T1 lines, POTS, DSL etc.

Bellsouth: 775,000 customer outages statewide (13.1% without service)
Palm Beach, Indian River, St. Lucie and Martin Counties: (29.5%)
Orange, Brevard and Volusia Counties: (19.5%)
Plus other outages in various service areas
Sprint: 174,000 (central and southern Florida)
Verizon: 8,100
Adelphia Cable: evaluating damage
Comcast TV Cable: evaluating damage

Update #5:
> For that many towers to have power generator issues makes you wonder if
> they had power generators to begin w/. Maybe they just had a few hours
> worth of UPS power or something.

The FCC is no longer releasing outage reports from the carriers, so this is based on information from the local newspapers.

Generally large numbers of cellular towers in a region are fed from a central switch. If the central switch looses power, then all the towers connected to that switch loose service. In this case, the backup generator for the central switched failed. The switch was on battery backup until 9pm, but when it became apparent that neither the utility power nor the generator would be restored soon, Sprint shutoff the switch to prevent damage from low battery voltage. This will speed the restoration effort when utility power or the generator is finally fixed because the switch will not have been damaged..

No Fun At All

My wife and I did not really want to watch much of the GOP convention. Nonetheless, like gawkers at a car wreck, we were inevitably drawn to the spectacle. In order to make the experience tolerable, we decided to play one of those drinking games in which we would each take a drink every time a certain phrase was uttered from the podium. We figured that by the time the main speeches were delivered, we would really not care whether they told the truth.

So here we sit, stone cold sober, a full bottle of Maker's Mark at the ready and we haven't even broken the wax seal.

I guess that "Osama bin Laden" was not the best choice for the game (click the link then click the icon labeled "Graphic: The Words Speakers' Use").

37 tons of ... yellowcake

Uranium enriched to at least 20% U-235 is refered to as highly enriched uranium (HEU). At enrichment levels lower than this somewhat arbitrary cut-off, which is still four times more enriched than economical for commercial reactor fuel, the term used is low enriched uranium (LEU). Modern weapon-grade is HEU at about 90% U-235. Jot these down. There will be an exam later.

The IAEA reported today that it has no evidence that Iran produced HEU. This after the highly publicized HEU contamination found at the Kalaye Electric Company and at the Natanz sites in Iran. "It appears plausible that the HEU contamination found at those locations may not have resulted from enrichment of uranium by Iran." I've covered this previously. Pakistan and China, derangement and normal untidiness, are the resepective causes for this effect. See my posts on the MEK-NeoCon romance.

Iran has announced a schedule for the conversion of 37 tons of 'yellowcake' (U3O8) into uranium hexaflouride gas (UF6), and t that it intends to test its gas centrifuge cascade.

I hope I misheard, but JRE seems to have characterized this in an interview this morning as "Iran's nuclear weapons program" ...

Update: The NYT's David Sanger uses the following turn of phrae: "sophisticated centrifuges capable of making bomb-grade nuclear fuel". As long as the NYT frames the issue as centrifuges==bomb (but only in Iran), the intellectual level of discourse on this issue is going to remain wicked dumb. Sam knows that his toast gets darker when he pushes the handle on the toaster down a second or third time, and that the correct number of times is two. Sam is six, and autistic, but he knows toast when he sees it.

Anything that can distinguish between two atoms of uranium based on a 1% difference in mass is "capable" of enriching uranium, and anything that can enrich uranium from 0.7% (natural) to the 3-5% range (commercial fuel), can, if re-applied, enrich uranium to the 95% range (weapons grade). Oh well. The Times bought the last adventure on the Administrations terms. There is no reason to suspect that it isn't willing to do the same again. The Editor's Lamment should appear sometime in 2006 or 2007.

Written by EBW, despite MT's claims to the contrary.

The extended entry contains an image of a bank of centrifuges at a Urenco plant.

Cobell v Norton news

via Triballaw

Judge Royce C. Lamberth granted a TRO today, halting the DOI from selling parcels of the Indian owned land at issue in the case. This is a win. An invitation for bids for the sale of the Indian-owned land was issued on July 30, 2004 by BIA. The agency set a deadline for submitted bids of September 1, 2004.

Keith Harper attorney for the Plaintiffs and member of the Cherokee Nation of Oklahoma made the following remarks:

"This land and its subsurface rights lie at the heart of the Individual Indian Trust litigation. Secretary Norton is trying to sell the core asset -- the land and its natural resources -- of this Trust without giving the Court or Plaintiffs any idea as to whether prudent steps would be taken to ensure that the sale is consummated at fair market value and solely in the best interests of each trust beneficiary."

Lead plaintiff Elouise Cobell and member of the Blackfoot Nation of Montana made the following remarks:

"We have no desire to curtail the ability of private Indian landowners to sell their land. We fully support their right to do so. The question is whether the government's auction of trust land will ensure that fair market value is paid to each trust beneficiary who chooses to sell his or her land."

"Unless the government provides full and correct information, there is no way for a landowner to make a sound decision. Given our history, the last thing we need is a rush to sell Indian lands at fire sale rates especially with an Administration focused on nothing else but escaping liability for their historical and continuing mismanagement."

DOI officials have admitted that they would not perform appraisals prior to bidding. Moreover, DOI cannot make a showing that the trust beneficiaries have been provided the information they need to make an informed consent to such sales particularly when the Secretary has refused to provide each trust beneficiary with current appraisals and an accurate survey of the trust lands.

Written by EBW, despite MT's claims to the contrary.

Don't Be a Girlie Man, Make Another Movie

Arnold Schwarzenegger, in his convention speech last night said:

To those critics who are so pessimistic about our economy, I say, Don't be economic girlie men!

To whom was he speaking? Apparently, he was talking to the American consumer. The AP reports:

Consumers' renewed worries about job prospects led to a bigger-than-expected drop in confidence in August and provided more evidence of the fragility of the economic expansion.

The consumer confidence index, which had been rising since April, dropped to 98.2 from a revised reading of 105.7 in July, according to a report yesterday from the Conference Board, a private research group.

The reading was well below the 103.5 analysts expected, and was the lowest since May, when it registered 93.1.

''The slowdown in job growth has curbed consumers' confidence," said Lynn Franco, the director of the board's Consumer Research Center.

Girlie men lose confidence when they do not have a job. Manly men make just suck it up and make make another movie, banking an additional $20 million.