Wampum

Social Security and the Nuclear Option Update

A few days ago, I noted that President Bush’s difficulty selling private accounts for Social Security made it more likely that Republicans in the Senate would choose the Nuclear Option with regard to judicial nominees.

I wrote:

If the GOP thinks that they may lose on big second term initiatives such as Social Security and tax cuts, they may decide that having the work of the Senate grind to a halt, and then blaming Democrats for obstructing legislation, is the best alternative available to them. Halting the work of the Senate would at least prevent Republicans from having to decide whether to vote for or against a Social Security phase out bill that could lose.

The cost to Republicans of having the Senate shut down is directly related to the prospects of passing legislation they favor. If the prospect of passing Republican favored legislation erodes, so does the cost to Republicans of having Senate business grind to a halt by going nuclear.

The GOP may decide that the smartest move is to ram through as much legislation as they can (class action, bankruptcy, tort reform, Anwar, etc) and then go nuclear to cause the Senate to shut down before Republicans face defeat on Social Security and tax cuts.

Today, via Josh Marshall, I noted the following in the
Washington Times:

The senior Republican senator said privately that the only way to avoid a bad deal on Social Security may be "to pull the trigger on the nuclear option."

This, he said, would mean changing Senate rules to force an end to Democratic filibusters and a vote on Mr. Bush's judicial nominees. The Democrats likely would retaliate by filibustering all Republican bills. Republicans then could blame Democrats for blocking Social Security reform.

I still do not know what Democrats should do about that possibility but the scenario seems less far fetched all the time.

Posted by Dwight Meredith at March 13, 2005 09:34 AM | TrackBack