Writing in the South Asia Tribune, Wajid Shamsul Hasan and I appear to be reading similar tea leaves. His piece is Will Pakistan Army Invade Balochistan as per the NIC-CIA Plan.
I recommend the interested readers, that is, anyone who knows that Iran is bordered by Iraq, Afganistan, Baluchistan (province of Pakistan), and the Gulf of Oman/Arabian Gulf, follow the link, then look at the discussion fora. Pak nuke futures are right up there.
[update: Again, courtesy of a grant from Jonah's temporally offset research fellowship fund, our Book of Hours now includes Pak politicians wierd enough to be drop-ins to the DeLay/Frist/Bush coteries. One just did a think-tank event on the theme that the US is preparing to attack Pakistan, steal Baluchistan, and so on. He and the Baluch Sheiks agree that the US is preparing to take over operational control of the Port of Gwadar and the transport system through Quetta (catching the Sui gas fields en passant). What these two points of prognostication differ on is whether the US is (a) dangerously liberating Balushistan, aka "Kalat" from Punjab, aka "Pakistan", by force of arms, necessarily including theater (well, strategic if you live there) nuclear weapons (General Loonie), or (b) dangerously occupying Kalat, aka "Baluchistan" on behalf of Punjab, aka "Pakistan", by force of arms, conducting trans-boarder (well, global if you live there) armed conflict (Nawab Bugti, et alia).
Elsewhere, speaking of Gwadar's historic economy (trafficing in human beings since at least the 1700's), Oman is complaing that thousands of West and South Asians are infiltrating into Oman via the Iranian and Gwadar (Omani up until 1956) coasts. This means the security of the eastern Iranian boarder (bi-directional) is about as good as the Maine - Quebec boarder, for moose and squirrel (plural to local taste). The Gulf of Oman commuters are generally looking for work, about 600 are in gaol this week waiting to be flown back to Karachi after being fleeced by the GoM species of coyotes, but some might be "employed", to the potentially serious annoyance of Oman and the rest of the GCC states.]
Posted by EBW at January 29, 2005 06:52 PM