For the past decade under the Sanctions Regime Iraq did not offer its oil on the commodities market. The Occupation-Resistance and hypothetical Reconstruction regimes will not result in Iraqi oil entering the spot market in the forseeable future.
Iran does not offer its oil on the commodities market. Approximately sixty percent of Iranian crude is sold sold in Asia. Iran sells its oil under long-term deals with Shell, British Petroleum, TotalFinaElf, etc., and directly to independent refineries, again, under long-term agreements. Iran is a dependable long-term energy exporter.
Third Army was engaged in a full scale attack along an eastern axis on the Siegfried Line. In two days it disengaged and executed a pivot to advance rapidly along a northern axis and relieve encircled forces (Battle of the Bulge). The pivot needed only the code word "nickle" to execute.
UN forces were encircled at Pussan. In one day UN forces executed a complex amphibious assault and executed a theater-scale pivot to flank the North Korean forces and relieve encircled forces (Inchon landing). The pivot cost only 200 UN forces killed and wounded to execute.
A lot of garbage has been written about some New American Way of War, but most of it is cover for generational competition (there is a publish-or-perish regime in military academia too), marketing collateral from technology vendors, and golly-gee-invincibility messaging for the Hill and media. What's new is the current state of the relationship between fire and maneuver, the changing nature of close air support, the compression of the sensor to shooter loop, and important coalition and jointness issues, and as I pointed out earlier in the essay The Importance of ... Doing Nothing, the strategic reality that the US is engaged in something profoundly different from the first Gulf War, Kosovo, and Afghanistan.
But what is the strategic reality? The Afgan campaign was reaction to provocation, resulting in basing agreements in Central Asia. The Iraq campaign eliminated the organized military on the western boarder of Iran, and transformed Iraq into a secure base of operations for the forward-deployed CENTCOM. Both campaigns sold domestically and multilaterally, the means were accepted by the markets even though the ends were ambiguous. Catalogs of war rationals have been assembled and critically reviewed elsewhere. Similarly, catalogs of situational analysis and exit strategies have been assembled and critically reviewed elsewhere.
Prior to the Atta Provocation the defining military conflict of the Bush Regime was the Incident of April 2001 (Hainan incident), involving a US SIGINT asset (EP-3E) performing in-shore surveillence and a PRC Air Interceptor asset (F-8) performing coastal defense. Under the Clinton Administration the Principals Committee's China policymaking process was bottom-up and the controlling policy constructive, strategic partnership. Under the Bush Regime the Principals Committee's China policymaking process is top-down and the controlling policy the China Threat theory.
Asian industrialization requires access to sources of fossil fuel. Access to sources of fossil fuel requires that a policy of hegemony by one or more non-Asian states, manifesting as "containment" or "encirclement", and necessarily affecting the latent ability to attain the policy goal of winning, or at least not loosing a hi-tech war, fail. A "containment" or "encirclement" policy that is real, must attempt to manage China's access to the sources of fossil fuel.
I won't bother to restate NeoCon Conspiracy theory, but if the tip of the spear plunges west, then they do control the apparatus of the state. But if the tip of the spear plunges east, and nuclear weapons related programs or funds-Hammas doesn't float your boat, and the US import oil stream isn't scheduled to be re-sourced to newly "liberated" flow points, then please ... walk backwards and find the point of origin, where this fire began, and who set it.
This is a companion piece to It's not about "gay marriage.".., on the covert motivations of factions within the Bush regime.
Posted by EBW at November 23, 2004 02:59 PM | TrackBackI wonder if China, et al, might start a new "Oil Rush" in asia. This is a great beginning on a thread, that Wampum did, provokes much thought.
My dad helped MacArthur and Co. plan the "Inchon Landing" in Korea. We now need such shrewd strategists in other places also. Unfortunately, Dad died in 1999. I think he'd be very wary of the situation in Korea, China, Pakistan, and Ukrainia at this time.
Posted by: Steve Plonk at November 26, 2004 08:59 AM