This is my second effort at predicting each Senate race. My 2002 predictions are here. In my previous effort, I correctly predicted 31 of 34 races or 91%.
The key to having a high percentage of correct picks is to make sure to post predictions in the safe races. In 2002, there were 17 non-competitive races that were easy to predict. In other words, I missed on 3 of 17 reasonable close races. I thought that Cleland would win in Georgia (embarrassing to miss in my home state), that Coleman would lose in Minnesota, and that Shaheen would prevail over Sununu in New Hampshire. I would like to do better this year but given the number of very close races, I doubt I will. The good news is that I have a high degree of confidence that I will get Georgia right this time. At any rate, here goes.
Baseline
The current Senate has 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and one Independent, Jim Jeffords of Vermont. Jeffords caucuses with the Democrats so, from here on out, I will lump him in with the Dems. There are 34 Senate seats up this year. Fifteen of those seats are currently held by Republicans and 19 by Democrats. Before the votes are counted, the race for control of the Senate is Republicans 36, Demoncrats 30.
If either party acheives 51 seats, it will control the Senate (to the extent that the Senate can be controlled with fewer than a filibuster proof 60 seats). If the party winning the White House gets 50 seats, the Vice President breaks the tie and gives that party control. If John Kerry becomes President, he will resign his Senate seat. Massachusetts passed a law preventing the Republican Governor Mitt Romney from appointing anyone to that seat pending a special election in the spring.
Safe GOP Seats
There are nine Republican Senators running for reelection who will win easily. Those nine are Shelby of Alabama, McCain of Arizona, Crapo of Idaho, Grassley of Iowa, Brownback of Kansas, Voinovich of Ohio, Gregg of New Hampshire, Bennett of Utah, and Kit Bond of Missouri who will win big for the first time in his career. See how easy it is to inflate one's percentage of correct choices. Barring a miracle, I am now nine for nine.
After those nine Senators cruise to reelection, our running score is:
GOP 45
Dem 30
Safe Democrats
There are safe Democratic seats, too. At one time, Republicans thought they had a chance to defeat Patty Murray in Washington, Harry Reid of Nevada, and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. They were wrong. There are now thirteen safe Democratic seats. The lucky thirteen are Feingold of Wisconsin, Boxer of California, Murray of Washington, Lincoln of Arkansas, Inoye of Haiwaii, Dodd of Conn., Bayh of Indiana, Milkulski of Maryland, Reid of Nevada, Shumer of NY, Dorgan of North Dakota, Wyden of Oregon and Pat Leahy, of whom Dick Cheney thinks so highly, of Vermont.
It is particularly satisfying that four of the seats, Lincoln, Bayh, Reid, and Dorgan are safe despite being in red states. Of the safe Republican seats only one, Grassley of Iowa, is from a state won by Al Gore in 2000.
After the safe Dem seats are counted, the Dems have pulled closer:
GOP 45
Dem 43
The remaining seats seats are either closely contested or open seats. Let's take those one at a time.
More under the fold.
1) Illinois
Illinios is an open Republican seat. I smell an upset brewing in Illinois. The Democrats nominated rising star and convention keynote speaker Barrack Obama. The Republicans had troube getting a candidate. Jack Ryan, a young, handsome, smart, rich Wall Street type was all set to run when documents from his bitter divorce from actress Jeri Ryan showed that he pressured his wife to particpate in some exhibitionist sexual activity. Ryan pulled out of the race. The GOP, scrambling to find a candidate, then flirted with such luminaries as Mike Ditka but eventually settled on Alan Keyes. The fact that Keyes lived in Maryland did not seem to cause the Illinios GOP much pause.
Keyes is a certified nut case. Obama is a rising star with national potential.
Obama will win this one in a walk. The over/under on Obama's vote percentage seems to be 70%. I'll take the over. You should expect the GOP slime machine to crank up to throw some dirt his way before he has a chance to become a force in national politics.
Oh yeah, the upset. You didn't really think I was going to predict a Keyes win did you? If I had even suggested as much they would have taken away my predictor's license. No, the upset is that Alan Keyes will made it through the campaign without either throwing himself into a mosh pit or dowsing himself with gasoline and strking a match.
GOP 45
Dem 44
2) Georgia
My home state. This is the first race that fits within the overall theme of this years's Senate races. Can Democrats win state wide elections in red states? In this case, the answer is no.
The Georgia race is for an open seat being vacated by the retiring Zell Miller. I voted for Zell three times but like many Georgia Democrats, I am not sorry to see him go. It appears that a few years in Washington caused him to lose his mind.
The race pits three-term Republican Congressman Johnny Isakson against one-term Democratic Congresswoman, Denise Majette.
On the poltical spectrum of Georgia, Isakson is a moderate who pretends to be a hard line conservative in order to win Republican primaries. Having him in the Senate instead of Zell will not move the ideological make-up of the Senate a centimeter.
Denise Majette is very smart (she graduated from the Duke law school, and everyone knows that Duke law grads are smart, right?), highly competent, and is a good campaigner. I practiced before her when she was a judge, and she was always prepared, interested, open minded, and fair. Majette won a Congressional seat by defeating Cynthia McKinney in a Democratic primary. She is a good candidate.
She is also a black women running as a Democrat in Georgia in 2004. The sitting Democratic Senator (the aforementioned Zell Miller) has not endorsed her. She has no shot in this race and that is a pity.
GOP 46
Dem 44
3) South Dakota
The highest profile Senate race pits Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle against Republican John Thune. South Dakota is a very small, very red state. It went for George Bush over Al Gore 60-38 and President Bush has a 22% lead over John Kerry in recent polling. This race fits our theme. Can the highest ranking elected Democrat win in a bright red state?
Both sides have poured resources into South Dakota. The state has about 750,000 people. Between the two candidates, more than $30 million has been spent. My guess is that the people of South Dakota would rather have the $40 per man, woman and child and let the candidates flip a coin.
The race has been nasty. Bill Frist, Senate Majority Leader has campaigned against Daschle in South Dakota. That is the first time in history that a Majority Leader has actively campaigned against a Minority Leader. Rush Limbaugh likes to call Daschle the devil. Flyers have been handed out at churchs saying that a vote for Daschle is a vote for sodomy.
Daschle argues that his leadership position is beneficial to South Dakota. He points to all manner of pork he has brought to the state. Daschle notes that his Senate desk in in the front row, at the center of the chamber while Thunes would be in the back in a corner.
Thune argues that Daschle is a moderate at home but a liberal in Washington. In addition, Thune has hugged President Bush so tight that there are rumors of a need for a shotgun wedding. Thune argues that Daschle has obstructed the President, is out of step with South Dakota, and needs to be retired. In other words, its pork versus ideology. A good overview of the dynamic of the race is here.
Recent polling has Thune up a tiny amount but turn out will determine the result. There are likely to be charges of voter fraud (several Republican operatives have been indicted for voter fraud. The GOP responded not by firing those workers but by moving them to other states!). There may be line dancing by Indians across the North Dakota border. Thousands of folks have registered to vote leaving their RV campground as theoir address and hundreds apparently live at the Comfort Inn.
In the end, South Dakota will decide whether it wants to keep Daschle's influence or to line up behind the Bush agenda. I am reminded of when George Nethercutt defeated House Speaker Tom Foley. A poll after the election found that many voters in the Washington district were surprised that Neathercutt did not automaticaly become Speaker as a result of his win.
I would bet either side if given 11-9 odds. The popular position is to call it a toss up but that is a cop out. I predict that Daschle falls.
GOP 47
Dem 44
4) North Carolina
North Carolina is another open seat (John Edwards decided to run for President instead of reelection). Once again, this race will test whether or not a Democrat can win in a red state. The Senate seat has not been kind to incumbents. No Senator has been relected to this seat since the retirement of Sam Erving in 1974.
The race has former Clinton Chief of Staff and investment banker Erskine Bowles against fifth term Republican Congressman Richard Burr.
Polls show the race a dead heat. A poll released on October 29 by the Winston-Salem Journal had Bowles ahead by 0.3% with 7.5% undecided and a MoE of +-4%.
Bowles leads in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill are as well as in the Charlotte area. Burr leads in the Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point triad, in western NC and in the east.
Bowles led early, mainly due to name recognition from his time as Clinton's chief of staff and from his losing Senate race against Elizabeth Dole. Burr has chipped away at that lead and in fact pulled ahead in the polling, Bowles stopped the bleeding, and now appears to have ever so slight momentum.
Bush won North Carolina by 13 points in 2000 and the question is whether he has the coattails to pull Burr across. Recent polling has Bush winning North Carolina but by a lesser margin than in 2000. Anecdotal evidence of a strong Democratic GOTV effort has yet to be confirmed. Early voting appears robust particlarly in Bowles friendly areas like Raleigh, Durham, and Charlotte.
This race is very close and could go either way. Erskine Blowles is a very smart, very serious man. He is a political moderate. He would make a very good Senator. I think that he would be a better Seanator than he is a candidate.
Bowles lead in the triangle (Raleigh-Durham) will be offset by Burr's advantage in the Triad (Winston-Salem/Greensboro). The issue is whether Bowles can win by enough in his home area (Charlotte) to overcome Burr's advantage in the mountains and down east. My guess, and it just a guess, is that Bowles pulls enough of a margin from Charlotte to squeak out a win.
GOP 47
Dem 45
5) South Carolina
Democrats have to defend another open seat in a bright red state in the race to replace retiring Senator Fritz Hollins.
Hollins has served in the Senate for 38 years and, in what must be a record, for 36 of those years he was the Junior Senator from South Carolina (as a result of Strom Thurmond's remarkable term of service).
George Bush won South Carolina by 16% in 2000 and appears poised to win it by a similar or greater margin this year. That is a tough environment for State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum in her race against Republican Congressman Jim DeMint.
DeMint has run a horrible race while Tenenbaum has done well. Tenenbaum has beat DeMint over the head on his outsourcing position and on his support for a 23% national sales tax. DeMint has done some gay bashing and has suggested that unwed mothers should be fired from teaching in public schools. Inez did well in the debates and clobbered DeMint in a joint Meet the Press appearance.
Inex has run as a moderate, supports Bush on Iraq, and has tried to distance herself from John Kerry. None of that matters. South Carolina is simply too red and DeMint will win easily.
GOP 48
Dem 45
6) Oklahoma
Oklahoma presents a Senate race for an open seat currently held by retiring Republican Don Nickles. Oklahoma is Bush country. Bush won OK by more than 20% in 2000 and a recent poll had Kerry pulling under 30%. Once again, we have a very hostile environment for a Democrat.
The Democrats have nominated a superb candidate, Brad Carson. Carson is a two-term Comgressman whose family has a long tradition in Oklahoma beginning when his grandmother came to the state on the Trail of Tears. With Ben Nighthorse Campbell retiring, a Carson victory would keep a person of Indian heritage in the Senate.
Carson is a moderate Democrat. He has run a near perfect race.
Carson's opponent, Dr. Tom Coburn has been a walking gaffe. He called for the death penalty for Doctors who perform abortions but he has performed such procedures himself. He referred to the political leadership on Ohlahoma as "crapheads." He sterilized a young woman without obtaining her written consent for the procedure. He suggested that American Indians are not really American Indians. He made comments on certain genetic predispositions of African Americans. He found a crisis of lesbian activity in rural Oklahoma schools where no one else could discern one.
One would thing that given all that Carson would be winning by a mile. Not so. The race is close, with recent polling giving Coburn a lead but with a huge number of undecideds. I think that the undecideds break for Carson but that the hostile environment poses too high a mountain to climb. Coburn by a bit.
GOP 49
Dem 45
7) Pennsylvania
I need a breather after all of those close races. Pennsylvania provides one. Arlen Specter is running for yet another term. Now, I have to admit some bias. I simply can not stand Specter. His treatment of Anita Hill was one of the most disgraceful performances by any Senator in my adult lifetime.
In most of the competitive Senate races this year, Democrats have run their best possible candidate. South Carolina, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Illinois are all examples. In Pennsylvania, the Democrats did not. Specter was vulnerable after a brusing primary race against a real wing nut. Had the Democrats nominated their strongest candidate, James Martin Capozzola of Philadelphia, they would likely hold a lead in the low double digits today.
Capozzola, however decided against a run, and the nomination was won by Congressman Joe Hoeffel. None of that is to say that Hoeffel is not a good candidate. He is. Nonetheless, for what ever reason, his campaign failed to gain traction. Specter cruises.
GOP 50
DEM 45
7) Alaska
The incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski is running against a former Governor, Democrat Tony Knowles. Murkowski got her seat when she was appointed to replace her father Frank Murkowski.
Frank Murkowski resigned his Senate seat when he became Governor. He then appointed his daughter. As one might expect, the issue of nepotism is big in Alaska.
Even worse for Lisa Murkowski, her father has proved to be a very unpopular governor.
Knowles has run a good race, and I think he survives even in red Alaska.
GOP 50
Dem 46
8) Kentucky
The Kentucky race pits Republican incumbent and Hall of Fame pitcher, Jim Bunning against Democratic challenger Dr. Dan Mongiardo. Bunning has run a slimey race. He said that his opponent looks like Saddam's sons. He charged, apparently falsely, that supporters of Mongiardo roughed up Bunning's wife. He reneged on a promise to debate in person, instead apearing from RNC headquarters in Washington and reading from a teleprompter. His surrogates have accused Mongiardo of being gay.
This race was never supposed to be close but Bunning's erratic behavior has some in the mdia suggesting that he is suffering from some form of dementia.
The race has closed but I suspect that Bunning survives. I also suspect that he will be the new Strom, remaining totally out to lunch while his staff and Mitch McConnell cast his vote.
GOP 51
Dem 46
10) Louisiana
Louisiana has a strange election system which features an open race.
Republican candidate David Vitter is competing against a couple of Democrats. If Vitter gets 50%, he is the new Senator, replacing gthe retiring Democrat John Breaux. If he does not get 50%, a December run off between Vitter and his closest Democratic opponenent will decide the seat. I predict that Vitter falls short of 50% and that in December the Dems unite to hold he seat.
GOP 51
Dem 47
11) Florida
The Florida Senate seat is being vacated by retiring Dem Bob Graham. Betty Castor is running for the Dems and she is an excellent candidate. A former university President and education advocate, she is popular in the South Florida and in her home territory of the Tampa area.
The Republicans are running Mel Martinez. The Cuban-American Martinez is a former Bush cabinet secretary. He is also the former President of the Florida trial lawyers association. That is right, the GOP wants to elect a trial lawyer to the Senate.
From George W. Bush's rhetoric, we can conclude that Martinez and his ilk are:
* reponsible for the flu vaccine shortages* responsible for increased health insurance premiums
* are against small business creating jobs
* want to clog the court system with frivolous suits
* are driving good doctors out of Florida
* want to make American business less competitive
It is hard to see why anyone who believes George W. Bush would vote for Mel Martinez.
Castor wins.
GOP 51
Dem 48
12) Colorado
The Colorado senate race is an open seat being vacted by Republican (and former Democrat) Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Popular Democratic state Attorney General Ken Salazar opposes beer magnet Republican Pete Coors. Salazar is a moderate Dem who has run a great race. Coors is a gaffe prone neophyte who is for family values, beer drinking, and twins.
Salazar wins.
GOP 51
Dems 49
After all of the money, time, and effort, the Senate stays exactly where it began with a one vote Reublican majority.
I have very little confidence in my predictions, especially for the NC, Oklahoma, SD, and Louisiana races.
If the race ends up GOP 51-Dem 49, the only thing left to do is to page Lincoln Chafee.
