In July I wrote about a political trial in Iran. I thought (and still think) that case was important. Here is the link. Recently Juan Cole has written about a series of arrests that have taken place in Iran. I started to write about the journalists and bloggers arrested, but unpaid life interveaned. Not to be missed however is the stream of clerics from Iraq who go to Qom to consult with Grand Ayatollah Hoseynali Montazeri, who was released from confinement early 2003.
Professor Cole also wrote something that caught my eye, and since I'd been groveling about in Iranian Orbat data circa 1982-1988 apropos of groveling about in Iraqi Orbat data circa 1982-1988 apropos of the military necessity of SCR 687 and the elephant in the KE04 Iraq War Room -- the role of the Democraic administrations and Sanctions after Gulf War I in creating the conditions and actors that define Gulf War II -- I started groveling about current Iranian Orbat data.
I don't have any conclusions to offer, but the 1982 plan (Iraqi) and the latest OPLAN 1002 (US)
The actions in this stage would be focused on Iran’s centers of gravity. These operations would be designed to break the Iranian will to continue fighting and to achieve an early termination of the conflict on terms favorable to the US and its allies. For warfighting operations CENTCOM would: destroy Iranian offensive capability; eliminate Iranian WMD programs; restore pre-conflict international boundaries; eliminate Iranian military alliances; establish regional stability on terms favorable to US interests; and restore free flow of oil. The current Iranian government regime would be replaced.
What really disturbs me is the unsought resonance from the current over-cocao-with-the-children reading, Strategic Attack of National Electrical Systems, a thesis by Major Thomas Griffith, Jr. I'm aware I haven't written anything on the subject yet, so the dots aren't there for anyone to try and pencil in. Eventually I'll get something written, even the piece on wilayat-i faqih (overdue).
Posted by EBW at October 16, 2004 10:30 PM | TrackBack