Currently, Republicans control the Senate, 51 to 48, with 1 D-leaning Independent. With 3 and a half weeks left before the election, here's a look at the 9 races I believe will determine if John Kerry has at least one chamber on the Hill supporting him. A second less favorable, but still acceptable scenario, has John Edwards spending much of his time breaking ties as Senate President. Here are my picks, in no obvious order.
1.) Florida: Betty Castor (D) vs. Mel Martinez (R) (open - D)
2.) South Carolina: Inez Tenenbaum (D) vs. Jim DeMint (R) (open - D)
3.) North Carolina: Erskine Bowles (D) vs. Richard Burr (R) (open - D)
4.) Louisiana: Chris John (D) or John Kennedy (D) vs. David Vitter (R) (open - D)
5.) Oklahoma: Brad Carson (D) vs. Tom Coburn (R) (open - R)
6.) South Dakota: Tom Daschle (D) vs. Jim Thune (R) (incumb - D)
7.) Colorado: Ken Salazar (D) vs. Peter Coors (R) (open - R)
8.) Pennsylvania: Joe Hoeffel (D) vs. Arlen Spector (R) (incumb - R)
9.) Alaska: Tony Knowles (D) vs. Lisa Murkowski (R) (incum - R)
Sadly, unless my co-editor and Georgia resident tells me otherwise, I'm conceding DINO Zell Miller's seat to Johnny Isakson. The latest poll has Denise Majette down by as much as 15%. However, to balance that out, it's rather clear that Barack Obama will be mopping up Alan Keyes, to grab that formerly R seat.
Thus, Democrats need to win five out of these nine races to achieve parity in the Senate, not a terrible spot to be in if Edwards is there to break ensuing ties. Six will provide D's with a clear majority.
In upcoming posts, I'll go into detail on each of these races, but currently it looks as Democrats are slightly favored in four, Republicans in two and three are toss-ups.
Stay tuned.
Posted by MB Williams at October 8, 2004 03:42 PM | TrackBackDenise Majette is a graduate of the Duke Law School (I had to get the plug in) and would be a good Senator. The chance that Georgia will elect a black, female, Democrat to a state wide seat in 2004 approaches zero. Isakson will win by double digits.
BTW, I think the Dems are pretty likely to get pickups in Illinois (duh!), Colorado, OK and Alaska. I think they are pretty likely to hold on to NC and La.
Thus, control of the Senate looks to come down to Castor, Daschle, Tennebaum,, and perhaps Hoeffel.
If Kerry wins, I think Romney appoints a replacement for that seat until spring when there is a special election. That sort of puts a crimp in the fisrt 100 days if the Senate ends up 50-49-1.
Posted by: dwight at October 8, 2004 05:39 PMActually, the overwhelmingly Democratic Massachusetts legislature has already addressed this, by passing legislation which would set a special election in the late winter, and would prohibit Romney from appointing anyone (including himself) until the election. That could leave the Senate at a 49-50 split unless Dems gain an extra seat or two.
Posted by: MB at October 8, 2004 06:37 PM