Wampum

One Quote To Explain Them All

A very smart person, MSM, reminded me of a quote from Benjamin Franklin:

One of the greatest tragedies of life is the murder of a beautiful theory by a gang of brutal facts.

That wisdom goes a long way to explain much about the Bush administration.

Iraq provides a fine example. The neo-con elements of the administration had Mr. Bush's ear and they espoused a beautiful theory. If we invade Iraq to remove Saddam, the Iraqi people would treat us as liberators. Regardless of what the Army Chief of Staff said, we would not need many troops to secure and pacify Iraq once Saddam fell. Oil revenues would pay for the reconstruction. A democracy headed by Chalabi would soon emerge to solve the Israeli-Palestinain dispute and to create a tsunami of democracy and freedom across the Islamic world.

That is a beautiful theory. It would have worked, too, if it had not been murdered by a large gang of brutal, real world facts. Franklin is right, that is a tragedy.

Or take the issue of protecting America from nuclear attack. Would it not be great if we had a system to shoot down incoming missiles to protect American cities? We would no longer have to worry about an ICBM reducing an American city to radioactive cinders. The Bush administration thinks that is a beautiful idea. So beautiful that they are deploying the system with a one year cost of more than $10 billion and a total cost of more than $50 billion. It is "one of the greatest tragedies of life" that the "brutal fact" is that the system does not work.

How about fiscal policy? It is unpleasant to have to raise taxes. It is also no fun to cut spending for popular programs. What the Republicans needed was a beautiful theory to avoid such choices.

The GOP discovered the Laffer curve and supply side economics was born. Although the Laffer curve was just a graph drawn on a napkin, Republicans thought it was more beautiful than any painting. It would allow Republicans to tax cut taxes and increase spending while balancing the budget. What could be more politically beautiful than that? Unfortunately, a brutal gang of facts murdered the theory. New records for post WWII budget deficits have been set by each of the last three Republican Presidents.

Stem cell research policy follows the familar pattern. President Bush had two competing goals in deciding whether or not the federal government would fund stem cell research. On the one hand, he wanted the benefits of such research. Creating treatments or cures for diabetes, Parkinson's disease, and other conditions using stem cells is a huge benefit. On the other hand, Mr. Bush's political base, pro-life evangelicals, was troubled by the ethics of destroying "life" for the purpose research.

Mr. Bush had a beautiful theory. He could satisfy his base by limiting research to existing stem cell lines while also gaining the benefits of the research. His theory was that his estimate of sixty existing lines would be sufficient for the scientists. Unfortunately, the brutal fact of the matter was that there were not 60 existing lines, and the lines that did exist were of poor quality.

There are many other examples. Mr. Bush has a beautiful theory of diverting a portion of Social Security taxes to private accounts. That will allow us to all retire in comfort while avoiding benefit cuts and tax increases. That theory rates to be brutally murdered by the more than a trillion dollars in transition costs.

The No Child Left Behind theory quickly encountered the brtual fact that only in Lake Woebegone are all children above average. Eliminating the estate tax in 2009 in order to stimulate job growth in 2002 did not prove effective.

Whenever the current administration annouces a policy proposal, program, or position, if it is based on a "beautiful theory," look carefully for that brutal gang of facts preparing to rumble.

Posted by Dwight Meredith at October 3, 2004 03:02 PM | TrackBack