I'm not exactly sure what alternative reality Jonathan Weisman of the Washington Post is writing on in yesterday's OP-ED article entitled, "Economy May Work in Bush's Favor: Housing Boom, Tax Cuts Buoy Many Voters, Despite Job Losses", but if he'd return from it to the real world, or at least Main Street, America, perhaps his piece might have read a tad differently.
Despite massive job losses effecting both moderate and low income workers, Weisman touted:
other facets of the economy may prove far better indicators of the sense of well-being that voters will bring to the ballot box in November, economic forecasters say. The booming housing market has given even struggling workers the ability to latch onto a tangible talisman of personal progress. Wage growth has been nearly stagnant, but thanks to Bush's tax cuts, disposable income has risen. And after nine quarters of slow but steady growth, the economy as a whole is poised to take off, giving some shaky households a sense of optimism about the coming year.
I'd offer that the optimism was just as shaky as the households from which it purportedly arises: Two reports in the past five days, the Michigan Sentiment and the Consumer Comfort Index, as reported by CNN:
Poll: Confidence plunges:
ABC/Money poll says a plunge in consumer confidence equals its steepest drop on record.
February 17, 2004: 6:31 PM EST
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Consumer confidence plunged last week, matching its steepest drop on record in more than 18 years of weekly polling by ABC News and Money magazine.The ABC/Money Consumer Comfort Index, based on ratings of current economic conditions, lost seven points -- a single-week fall that's been matched just twice before, in January 2001 and February 1990. In each of those cases, recessions followed.
Top that off with a housing market not quite as healthy as Weisman alludes. Back in January, I noted that both the new home sales and existing home sales were down for the months of October and November, and while existing home sales did recover slightly in December, new home sales continued their downward slide. To top off the bad housing news, today's reports on both residential building permits and housing starts were downright gloomy.
Debunking Weisman's trifecta of economic plusses purportedly in Bush's corner would not be complete without addressing the "personal income" myth. While "average incomes", which, of course include even those of the very wealthy, are growing slightly, and taxes, particularly on that aforementioned group have dropped, worker bee, i.e., hourly wage-earners have seen no income growth in the past 8 months. Factor in CPI, which on the whole has remaied relatively low, but has seen significant increases in food, housing and energy costs, and moderate to low income workers are in fact losing ground economically. Things are not expected to get much better. With OPEC cutting output, gasoline and heating oil prices are expected to break last summer's records, and a weaker dollar means that many consumer goods will in fact increase in price.
Ironically, Weisman chose to speak with Wisconsin residents on the eve of the state's Democratic primary. He sought to show that while "job, job, jobs" were one the minds of the many voters, the economy appeared healthy enough to defuse its use as a campaign issue against Bush. However, exit polls from yesterday indicated that the majority of Wisconsin voters disagreed with Weisman's analysis:
Exit polls: Economy top voter concern
Trade and loss of jobs apparently resonated among voters
Wednesday, February 18, 2004 Posted: 4:35 AM EST (0935 GMT)
(CNN) -- The economy was the top issue among voters in Wisconsin's presidential primary Tuesday, and trade in particular emerged as an issue that resonated with them, according to exit polls.
More than a third of those who responded to pollsters cited the economy as the top issue for them, and more than three-quarters said they thought the national economy was not good or poor.
I know that I'm probably being overly harsh on journalist Weisman, but the overt Bush bias, to the point of ignoring basic facts easily obtainable by the average Googling monkey demands some level of outrage. And while I'm not willing to predict an economic downturn looming on the horizon, it's quite clear that there are problems still unsolved from the last recession. So perhaps it's time for some of the WaPo political team to take off their blinders and start covering those issues.