Wampum

Bush And His Base

One key to Mr. Bush’s reelection is keeping the near unanimous support of his base. I previously noted that some of the more reliable pro-Bush pundits such as Rush Limbaugh, Andrew Sullivan and George Will had begun criticizing Mr. Bush. Among the right wing think tanks, both the Heritage Foundation and the Cato Institute have been critical of administration policy. Among the interest groups, the American Conservative Union, The Club for Growth and the National Taxpayers Union have been critical of Mr. Bush’s fiscal policy.

All of those folks are part of the Washington culture. Has criticism of Mr. Bush left the beltway and begun to erode Mr. Bush's base of support?

From January28-31, Quinnipiac University conducted a poll. Among the questions was a trial heat between George W. Bush and John Kerry. The exact question was:

Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

Republicans chose Mr. Bush over Mr. Kerry by a margin of 89% to 6%. Democrats chose Mr. Kerry over Mr. Bush by a margin of 88% to 9%.

In the 10 days that followed the Quinnipiac poll, Mr. Kerry continued to win primaries, including two in the South, and generally got favorable coverage. Mr. Bush, on the other hand, has been slammed by Democrats and the media on a number of issues including the failure to find WMD in Iraq, Mr. Bush’s grossly dishonest budget and Mr. Bush’s service in the National Guard.

For instance, Jesse at Pandagon sent me to this article suggesting that the Columbus Dispatch (Ohio) is on the verge of endorsing John Kerry, not for the Democratic nomination, but for the Presidency.

While it is not unprecedented for the Columbus Dispatch to endorse a Democrat for President, it has not happened since Woodrow Wilson ran for reelection in 1916. President Bush’s father was not born until 1924, eight years after the last Dispatch endorsement of a Democrat.

The Dispatch has been harshly critical of Mr. Bush. In an editorial entitled Buck Stops At The Top, the Dispatch wrote:

In the wake of David Kay’s resignation as chief U.S. weapons inspector in Iraq and his revelation that Iraq almost certainly did not have weapons of mass destruction, the justification for overturning long-standing U.S. policy and adopting a radical new doctrine of pre-emptive war has been called into question.

The premise upon which U.S. troops were sent unprovoked into battle has been proved wrong and is costing the United States dearly. More than 500 American soldiers have died and U.S. taxpayers are paying nearly $1 billion a week for a bloody project with no end in sight…

A president, like any chief executive, is charged foremost with making judgments after gathering solid, up-to-date information from all sides. Bush clearly relied on incomplete or inaccurate information to do this and now must accept the fact acknowledged by one of his predecessors, Harry S. Truman, that "the buck stops here..."

In Totally Reckless, the Dispatch was even harder on Mr. Bush’s fiscal policy:

Since President Bush took office, The Dispatch repeatedly has criticized the reckless fiscal policy of this administration and the GOP controlled Congress…

Under Bush’s watch, the nation’s annual bottom line has shifted by $700 billion, from a $200 billion-plus surplus in fiscal 2000 to a projected $500 billion shortfall for the current budget year.

This budgetary disaster primarily is the result of enacting enormous, politically motivated spending programs while simultaneously enacting enormous, history-making tax cuts…

The only question is whether such recklessness stems more from incompetence or misrepresentation…

It is becoming increasingly difficult to have any confidence in the fiscal policy of this administration.

Nathan Newman points us to this Free Republic thread as an example of what some of Mr. Bush’s base are saying.

Many of the posts support Mr. Bush and more are of the “but he is better than a Democrat” variety. Nonetheless, a significant minority express outright hostility towards Mr. Bush:

“Bush is NO conservative.”

“To borrow a phrase: Bush Pisses Up The Conservative's Sleeve... Just Like His Daddy Did!”

Commenting on RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie’s statement that he was “keeping my ear to the ground” for grassroots disenchantment: “Good - Maybe someone will stomp on your stupid head! “

“From an ultra conservative that is 100% behind President Bush's foreign policy: IF I VOTE, I will have to hold my nose and pull the Bush lever. His domestic policies suck, to put it mildly. How a "conservative" can do all of the idiotic things that Bush is doing is beyond my comprehension, i.e. Budget busting, CFR, Kennedy's Education crap, BENDING OVER AND GRABBING HIS ANKLES FOR ILLEGALimmigrants and on and on and on. What part of illegal doesn't he understand?”

“Bush is the traitor…”

“I will not vote for Bush if he walks on water between now and election day.”

I could not stomach more than the first 100 or so comments of the thread. There is s plenty more where that came from.

Given all of that, has Mr. Bush lost support among his base since the time of the Quinnipiac poll?

On February 10-11, ABC News-Washington Post took another poll. The poll had some bad news for Mr. Bush:

A majority of Americans believe President Bush either lied or deliberately exaggerated evidence that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction in order to justify war, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll…

Barely half -- 52 percent -- now believe Bush is "honest and trustworthy," down 7 percentage points since late October and his worst showing since the question was first asked, in March 1999. … 54 percent thought Bush exaggerated or lied about prewar intelligence…. Fifty percent of Americans approve of the job he is doing, the lowest level of his presidency in Post-ABC polling and down 8 percentage points from January. … In a head-to-head matchup, Kerry beat Bush, 52 percent to 43, percent among registered voters.

With all of that bad news, how much support has Mr. Bush lost from his Republican base. Almost none.

The ABC/Post poll asked a question (go there, click “poll data” chose the horse race question and search by party affiliation) very similar to the one in the Quinnipiac poll.

If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush, the Republican, or for John Kerry, the Democrat?

Republicans chose Mr. Bush over Mr. Kerry by a 85%- 11% margin while Democrats choose Mr. Kerry over Mr. Bush by an 88%-9% margin. With all of the bad press for Bush and good press for Kerry, the declining approval ratings, Kerry’s lead in the hypothetical match up, questions about Mr. Bush’s honesty and the rest, Mr. Bush’s Republican support declined only from 89% to 85%. That is within the margin of error.

Mr. Bush plans to use his ample war chest to slime the Democratic nominee and reach out to swing voters. The risk of the appeal to swing voters is the possible alienation of his base. Anecdoatal evidence of discontent with his base has not yet shown up in the hard numbers. Unless and until it does, Democrats should realize that this guy is going to be tough to beat.

Posted by Dwight Meredith at February 13, 2004 05:30 PM | TrackBack