New readers, please read this first, and then this second. Note to self: the id is 769.
Old readers, I'm going to continue the update format, top-posting. viz [now][old][older][the press].
[Update: 2/10, 8pm EST: An opinion piece worth reading in Al Abawaba. I had to skip the Jewish Lobby and Monarchist bits, but the rest seems on point. link.
[Update: 2/10, 7am EST: Ayatollah Khamenei's letter of the 8th has the effect of keeping the Association of Combatant Clerics (the elder Khatami and Karubi) from joining the boycot.]
[Update: 2/9, combined: Our own little blat, the Portland Press Herald, ran an opinion piece on this story. Elections good, clerics bad. In five hundred words. Not much happening in the real world either. Students start march, police stop march. Battons. ISNA reports.]
[Update: 2/8, 2pm EST: Al Jazeera reports that Ayatollah Khamenei has written to President Muhammad Khatami and speaker of the 6th Majlis, Mahdi Karubi. 75 incumbant members of the universe of splinters that are called "reform" are still not on the ballot, including Muhammad Reza Khatami, head of the Islamic Iran Participation Front -- the largest of the pro-reform parties, and brother of the President (who heads the 2nd of Khordad Front, see below).
Parties committed to the boycot:
- Islamic Iran Participation Front
- Muhajidin of the Islamic Revolution
Not yet committed to the boycot:
- Association of Combatant Clerics (Khatami, aka "2nd of Khordad Front")_
- Servants of Construction (Rafsanjani)
To give a sense of the means tests applied by the GC, it disqalified Elaheh Koulaee because a web site two years ago accused her of cooperating with the Russians. Well, got to go. The 7th Majlis appears to be both predetermined in composition, and in turn-out.]
[Update: 2/7, 3pm EST: The Jomhuriye Eslami yesterday had "informed quarters" saying that if the government didn't do ahead with the elections, someone else would run them. Khatami et al are preserving the function of the constitutional govermnent, while at the same time warning that the turn-out will be lowered by the illegitimacy of the lists.]
[Update: 2/7, 1pm EST: Islam Online reports that Khatami committed to holding the election earlier today, with a letter to Ayatollah Khamenei oddly similar to the languate INRA quoted GC Sec. (and Ayatollah) Jannati -- elections were due to expediency and by order of Ayatollah Khamenei. In effect, this has both parties -- {President, Speaker of the Majlis, majority of members, provincial governments}, and {Sec. of the Guardian Council, etc.} -- pointing their fingers at Ayatollah Khamenei. The GC has implemented "term limits" in the form of ineligiblity for a plurality pro-reform incumbants. That doesn't mean they control the voters, or have eliminated all the ballot choices the reform parties can select from. I don't think this is done yet, although the press keeps calling one side or the other the daily winner. I suppose the proximity to Florida and the majority gaming the rules in the legislature, and the Killer Dees in Texas are too close for comfort, and everyone loves a horse race. Wierd when you think that only a year ago, Iran was #2 on the list of places to invade this term.]
Base: 2/6, 5pm EST: Yesterday the GC had sent 51 of the 600 resubmits that it got from Intel, on to Interior. Today 200 more were added to that number. Recall, the critical issue is the 130 incumbants that the GC ruled were unqualified. Apparently some were in today's cohort of 200. Interesting minutea: It is the spokesperson for the 2nd of Khordad Front (universe of splinters forming the party of the president) who gave the number, and the unspecific information that some were incumbants (or otherwise famous). The Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Secretary of Ithe GC, would not publically commit to a number, or comment on any candidate. It isn't the 9th yet, so the claim by the GC that today it reached the end of its process appears to be today's chicken call.
Ayatollah Jannati went on record that the reinstatements were due to expediency and by order of Ayatollah Khamenei. The US press is still at the 51-out-of-600 story of 36 hours ago, with the reform defeated.
I've followed up on my blog again, in case you're interested.
BTW, the Servants of Construction aren't going to join the boycott, because they are the hard-liners.
Yup. Thanks!
Posted by: Eric at February 10, 2004 06:01 PM