Well, it's now mid-January, and many of December's economic indicators are now part of the historic record. Since these numbers tend to dribble in over the course of the month, I thought it might be interesting to look at them all together, comparing them with November and October results.
| Indicator | December | November | October |
| Unemployment rate | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% |
| Nonfarm Payrolls | +1K | +43K | +100K |
| CPI | 0.2% | -0.2% | 0.0% |
| PPI | 0.3% | -0.3% | 0.8% |
| Durable Goods Orders | - - | -3.1% | 4.0% |
| Factory Orders | - - | -1.4% | 2.4% |
| Industrial Production | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Capacity Utilization | 75.8% | 75.8% | 75.1% |
| Existing Home Sales | - - | 6.06M | 6.35M |
| New Home Sales | - - | 1082K | 1109K |
| Retail Sales | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Retail Sales excl. Auto | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Personal Spending | - - | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Personal Income | - - | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Hourly Earnings | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Now, I know we're all supposed to be falling over ourselves because GDP topped 8% in the 3rd quarter and the stock market is approaching Clinton Era levels, but to me, admittedly an armchair economist, these numbers, while they don't exactly suck, do not cry out "mother-of-all-recoveries" on the way. In fact, they're down right anemic. But for the Bush hand-fed media machine, consumer confidence would still be in free fall, versus the ridiculous jump we saw last week.
Do I even need to mention the havoc the frigid temperatures (and yes, even this Mainiac complained) will have wreaked on heating fuel prices (oil, natural gas). The EIA was already predicting natural gas prices would be significantly higher than last year's checkbook busters, with the stipulation that if cold weather hit the US, all bets were off on prices spiralling out of control. And don't be fooled that this is just a consumer "thang"... Even EIA placed the blame for decreased usage by industry firmly on higher prices. And with low crude oil reserves, cold weather in the heating oil-dependent Northeast has seen oil prices jump to over $34/barrel, well above the $29/barrel threshold "favored" by OPEC. Last year, pundit after pundit warned that oil surpassing the $35 mark would spell disaster for any economic recovery. With natural gas prices at near record levels and oil prices increasing rapidly, just when will the buffalo poo hit the proverbial fan?
I generally am a rather positive person (with two autistic kids, anything else would see me landed in a funny farm), but between the lackluster economic news of the last two months, and prospects of out-of-control energy prices, I'd sooner place money on my beloved Patriots taking the Superbowl than Bush's "recovery" gaining steam.
I thought only us Southerners used "thang." Do you "mash" buttons as well?
The oil prices are troubling but what I do not understand is where is the economy going to find a growth engine. The stimulus of refis has slowed, Kash called the top of the housing market which, if true will have a negative wealth effect, commodity prices have surged, job growth has slowed, the tax rebate (actually an advance) has played out and consumers are in all kinds of debt.
If the Asian central banks decide to quit buying treasuries, interest rates will spike. Where is the growth going to come from, business investment?
Posted by: dwight meredith at January 17, 2004 09:17 PMThe Dollar's fall might help manufacturing and exports... The war in Iraq is going to keep some industrial sectors humming (e.g. The army's bullet factory is at capacity and has to farm out production. Blown-up hummvees need replacing).
Manufacturing as a whole, seems to have stopped contracting...but it would be rather silly to expect Manufacturing's recovery to do more than shore up the economy, temporarily.
Posted by: Patrick (G) at January 18, 2004 07:00 PM