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Momentum

Political pundits seem to habitually overestimate the effects of momentum gained by wins in early presidential primaries and caucuses. Neither the results of the Iowa caucuses nor the New Hampshire primary are a particularly good indicator of the line up for the general election.

In 1988, the Iowa caucuses were won by Bob Dole and Dick Gephardt. The general election was between George H. W. Bush and Michael Dukakis. In 1992, Tom Harkin swept the caucuses but was never a factor in the race.

The list of winners of the New Hampshire primary who did not secure the nomination of their party is quite lengthy. Estes Kefauver won on the Democratic side in 1952 and 1956 but Adlai Stevenson was the nominee both times. Henry Cabot Lodge won the GOP primary in 1964 but Barry Goldwater was the nominee. Ed Muskie won in New Hampshire in 1972, Gary Hart in 1984, Paul Tsongas in 1992, Pat Buchanan in 1996 and John McCain in 2000. None secured their party’s nomination.

The latest pundit to overestimate the effect of early momentum is Terry Jeffries. Writing at Town Hall, Jeffries takes the idea of early momentum to new heights.

According to Jeffries, Howard Dean’s nomination will become inevitable not if he wins Iowa or New Hampshire but if he wins the District of Columbia primary:

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is almost certain to win the nation's first Democratic presidential primary next month, picking up momentum that could make him unstoppable.

But that primary won't be in New Hampshire. It will be in D.C.

What evidence does Jeffries marshal to support that claim? The experience of Pat Buchanan:

But those who dismiss this primary as meaningless are fooling themselves. In 1996, when I was Pat Buchanan's campaign manager, Pat used victories in early (and also smugly dismissed) Republican caucuses in Alaska and Louisiana to develop the momentum to beat expectations in the Iowa Caucuses and win the New Hampshire primary.

Unless my memory fails, Buchanan used the momentum generated from his showings in Alaska, Louisiana, Iowa and New Hampshire to secure not the GOP nomination but rather a TV gig opposite Bill Press.

I do not know whether or not Howard Dean will win the Democratic nomination for president. I am reasonably sure that whether he wins or loses, the results of the D.C. primary will play a bit part.

Posted by Dwight Meredith at December 3, 2003 11:48 AM | TrackBack