I started training at a seasonal job this morning, and so missed the release of the home sales numbers and had to catch up this afternoon over on the Yahoo economic calendar. Market analysts expected them to decrease, mostly due to the upwards creep of mortgage rates. While new home sales did slack off slightly, existing homes increased substantially.
The nice thing about the eco calendar is that it lays out the numbers in format in which revisions from the previous month are easily visible. Unfortunately, it takes a little more data collecting to see any longer term patterns develop.
from previous month | |||
| September | |||
| August | |||
| July | |||
| June | |||
| May | |||
| April |
When I pulled up the AP story on the home sales numbers, the story was somewhat different than I'd expected:
New - Home Sales Dip, Post 3rd - Best Month
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 3:36 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON (AP) -- New-home sales edged down in September but nevertheless registered their third-highest level on record. Sales of previously owned homes scored their best month ever, fresh evidence that the housing market continues to help spur an economic recovery.
The Commerce Department reported Monday that new-home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.145 million in September, representing a small, 0.2 percent dip from the previous month.
Even with the drop, the level of sales was stronger than the 1.125 million pace that analysts were forecasting. New-home sales posted their best month ever in June, when they racked up a 1.200 million-unit pace. They turned in their second-best month on record in August, when sales came in at a 1.147 million rate.
A quick trip through the NYTimes archives unveils another interesting pattern:
BUSINESS/FINANCIAL DESK | September 26, 2003, Friday
Home Sales Rose in August; Durable Goods Orders FellABSTRACT - Commerce Department reports Americans bought new and existing homes at record combined rate of 7.62 million in August; sales rose 5.5 percent for existing homes and 3.4 percent for new homes...
BUSINESS/FINANCIAL DESK | August 27, 2003, Wednesday
Home Sales Remain Strong; Confidence Index ClimbsABSTRACT - Commerce Department says orders for durable goods rose 1 pecent in July; department says sales of new single-family homes slipped to seasonally adjusted 1.165 million rate in July, second-highest pace on record; Conference Board says its index of consumer confidence rose to 81.3 in August from upwardly revised 77 in July (M)...
BUSINESS/FINANCIAL DESK | July 26, 2003, Saturday
Durable-Goods Orders Soared in June, Heartening EconomistsABSTRACT - Factory orders for durable goods surged in June, helped by spending on new equipment, the Commerce Department said ... Orders for goods made to last at least three years increased 2.1 percent after there was no change in May. New-home sales in June rose 4.7 percent, the government reported, to a record high of 1.16 million units...
BUSINESS/FINANCIAL DESK | June 26, 2003, Thursday
Factory Orders Fall as Sales of New and Existing Homes ClimbABSTRACT - Commerce Department reports orders of durable goods fell 0.3 percent in May; value of orders dropped to $168.3 billion, lowest level since June 2002; department reports sales of new single-family homes climbed 12.5 percent in May, to record annual rate of 1.157 million units; National Association of Realtors says sales of previously owned homes rose 1.2 percent, to 5.92 million; graphs (M)...
Now, according to today's report, this was the third highest record; but looking back on the numbers previously released, today's home sales of 1.145 million were in fact surpassed by the past five months.
As we've seen with new unemployment claims, this is the same game of raise expectations and hype by putting forth the most rosiest of numbers, and then the following month, compare the new not-so-bright preliminary numbers against downwardly revised data. So while this month, it appears new home sales have only dropped by 2,000, in the bizarre "reality" of comparing oranges and oranges, and not oranges and avocadoes, the number in fact dropped by 5,000. Not a huge difference, but obviously fitting into a recent downward pattern otherwise obscurred by the Commerce Department's revisionist shell game.
Interesting...
Posted by: chs at October 28, 2003 08:52 AM