October 27, 2003 October is Koufax Pledge Drive month
Has the rebound peaked?
I noticed this morning over at CNN a reference to the ECRI index, and once I surfed on over to their site, was somewhat confused by this optimistic press release:
10/24/2003 NEW YORK, Oct 24 (Reuters) - A leading gauge of the U.S. economy inched up as a rise in stock prices and mortgage applications helped push the index higher, a report said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a private forecasting group, said its leading index crept higher to 128.8 in the week ended Oct. 17, compared with a downwardly revised reading for the previous week of 127.5. The gains were also helped along by a drop in jobless claims.
Why was I confused? Namely because of this nifty chart which accompanied the story:
While the release did mention that there has been a "moderation" of growth recently, I'd say that a picture's worth a thousand words.
Lots of numbers out this week, from homes sales to durable goods. I suspect we'll get a chance to see if the stimulus from the latest round of tax cuts is still stimulating, or if this Fall will turn out to be no different from last Fall: all hype and no recovery.
Would be interested to know your response to "Gains in Wages Expected to Give Economy a Lift," (http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/27/business/27WAGE.html) from today's New York Times; is it a realistic look at what's ahead or just a lot of Wall Street happy talk?
It's also interesting that October 17 appears to occur sometime in July.
Posted by: Manish at October 27, 2003 08:04 PM