From the DOL press release this morning:
In the week ending Oct. 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 384,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 390,750, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average of 395,000.
Of course, what the release doesn't tell us is that the 388K number was "revised" upwards by 6,000, from 382K last week. So while we're told that claims have again "dropped" this week, they actually increased by 2,000 from last week's "preliminary" number.
Confused yet?
And then there's the bad news:
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct. 4 was 3,674,000, an increase of 58,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,616,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,633,750, an increase of 6,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,627,250.
This is the highest number since continued claims hit 3,691,000 in late July.
California reported 11,470 layoffs in the service industry and agriculture. Good luck, Governator.
Update: Billmon has noticed that same trends, and thoughtfully expands on the subject.
Additionally, the "unemployment" numbers have a self limiting bias in them. Once your unemployment benefits run out you are no longer considered unemployed.
Posted by: TechnoPeasant at October 19, 2003 05:05 AMDid you mean to link to the comments section on Billmon's site?
Posted by: Yasth at October 20, 2003 10:50 PMhttp://money.cnn.com/2003/10/23/news/economy/jobless/index.htm?cnn=yes
Posted by: Joey Jo-Jo at October 23, 2003 10:05 AM