[This post was delayed, as when I went to save it, I encountered the ominous blue screen of death... causing my fickle Windows machine to crash, and losing all my changes.]
I know, I was talking about the Field Poll, and the possible problems it emphasized for at least two of the front runners, Kerry and Dean. 61% of moderate/conservative Democrats, and 38% of all California Democrats were either undecided or supportive of a current non-top tier candidate. And while 25% of undecided Democrats are self-proclaimed moderates or conservatives, only 9% are liberals. So in order for either Dean or Kerry to curry favor with more centrist Californians, both Dems and unaffiliateds voting in the Dem primary, they'll have to tack to the right fairly significantly. Dean has argued in the past that with his Vermont record, he is in a firm position to make the shift. This is critical not only in California, but in the majority of larger primaries and caucuses, which are still "open" to unaffiliated, and even cross Republican voters.
Below are the first 30 primaries, with their latest published date, status (Open, Closed, Open-Modified) and delegate count as of 2000.
| State |
Date |
Delegate Selection |
Voter Eligibility |
Delegate Count |
| DC |
1/13 |
Proportional Primary |
Open Primary |
33 |
| Iowa |
1/19 |
Caucus/Convention |
Closed Caucus |
57 |
| NH |
1/27 |
Proportional Primary |
Mod. Open Primary |
29 |
| SC |
2/3 |
Proportional Primary |
Closed Primary |
53 |
| Delaware |
2/3 |
Advisory Primary |
Closed Primary | 22 |
| Missouri |
2/3 |
Proportional Primary |
Open Primary | 92 |
| Arizona |
2/3 |
Proportional Primary | Closed Primary | 47 |
| NM |
2/3 |
Proportional Primary | Mod. Open Primary |
35 |
| Oklahoma |
2/3 |
Proportional Primary | Closed Primary |
52 |
| Michigan |
2/7 |
Caucus/Convention |
Open Caucus |
158 |
| Washington |
2/7 |
Advisory Primary | Mod. Open Caucus |
94 |
| Maine |
2/8 |
Caucus/Convention |
Mod. Open Caucus |
35 |
| Virginia |
2/10 |
Caucus/Convention | Open Caucus | 95 |
| Tennesee |
2/10 |
Proportional Primary | Open Primary | 81 |
| Wisconsin |
2/17 |
Proportional Primary | Open Primary | 93 |
| Idaho |
2/24 |
Caucus/Convention | Open Caucus | 23 |
| Utah |
2/27 |
Proportional Primary | Mod. Open Primary | 29 |
| California |
3/2 |
Proportional Primary | Modified Open Primary | 440 |
| Connecticut |
3/2 |
Proportional Primary | Closed Primary | 67 |
| Georgia |
3/2 |
Proportional Primary | Open Primary | 93 |
| Maryland |
3/2 |
Proportional Primary | Closed Primary | 95 |
| Massachusetts |
3/2 |
Proportional Primary | Mod. Open Primary | 118 |
| Minnesota |
3/2 |
Proportional Primary | Open Primary | 90 |
| New York |
3/2 |
Proportional Primary |
Closed Primary |
294 |
| Ohio |
3/2 |
Proportional Primary |
Mod. Open Primary |
169 |
| Rhode Island |
3/2 |
Proportional Primary |
Mod. Open Primary |
33 |
| Vermont |
3/2 |
Proportional Primary |
Open Primary |
22 |
| Hawaii |
3/2 |
Caucus/Convention |
Closed Caucus |
33 |
| North Dakota |
3/2 |
Caucus/Convention |
Open Caucus |
22 |
What does this chart mean for the current liberal favorites versus the first and second tier centrists? I'll address that in my next post.