Wampum

The pocketbook as economic barometer...

I've been thinking a lot recently about much of the Democrats' lack of historical perspective. It's as if they've bought into Bush&Co. revisionist mantra, that although Bush II looks remarkably like Bush I, there are in fact few similarities, and thus one should in no way expect a repeat of Poppy's 1992 election defeat for Junior. Even the mainstream press is beginning to wonder the same thing:

There are reasons to believe that Democratic morale is excessively low -- including recent polls that show that despite Bush's approval ratings, no more than half the country, and perhaps as little as 45 percent of the country, would vote to reelect him in 2004. The economy has not rebounded, and George H. W. Bush had similar ratings to his son's at this point in his presidency before losing to Bill Clinton.

I was 27 in 1991, struggling as a single-parent, laid off from my teaching job for the second time in two years. But even then, I don't know if I was fully cognizant as to just how bad the economic downturn was, and the effect it could have on the election the following year. I didn't have to make the mortgage, didn't have a retirement fund which was now a fraction of its former worth, didn't worry that state budget cuts would directly impact my sons' services. In essence, I didn't vote my pocketbook.

Now, at near middle age (gasp!), I do. And from what I realized when I looked at the 2000 Census yesterday was that, for all the pandering politicians do to seniors, those 65 and over only make up an eighth of the population. Granted, they vote at the highest rate, but my age cohort, the 35-44 age group, accounted for 16% of the population, the largest single segment. And while I don't worry so much about Social Security and Medicare, after a year of unemployment after the dot.bomb, I do worry about the battered job market. In fact, after fretting about whether our 401K has rebounded enough to cash it in should the technology sector shed my partner's current job, I essentially only look at employment as an indicator of the economy's health. I suspect many of the 2+ million other Americans who lost their jobs under Bush Jr.'s watch may feel much the same way. So while the Administration and their media flunkies can point to the stock market or consumer confidence as an indication that "Happy Days are Here Again", as long as my pocketbook shudders at the prospect of another pink slip, it knows which way I'll be voting come next November.