In late October, 1991, a series of unrelated weather systems converged in the waters off the coast of New England, creating a spectacular, and devastating, extra tropical meteorological event now known, due to the popularity of Sebastian Junger's best seller, as the Perfect Storm. Striking the coast just two months after the surprisingly powerful Hurricane Bob, the storm added an additional $200 million to the $1.5 billion clean-up bill from the earlier late-summer cyclone. Thousands of coastal properties were severely damaged, including the Maine home of then-President George H.W. Bush.
I suspect that although the damage to the Kennebunkport compound was worrisome, Bush was distracted by events brewing inside the Beltway. Despite the overwhelmingly sunny forecasts predicted for his bid for re-election, events were developing which threatened to sink his presidency faster than the Andrea Gail. His stellar poll numbers, buoyed by the success of the Gulf War, but remarkably resilient despite a sputtering recovery from the recession of the previous fall, suddenly began to plummet.
I first noted this drop when research sent me back into the poll vaults, but I couldn't at the time discern a reason behind such a precipitous drop. No scandals screaming from the headlines, no stock market crash. I found it somewhat heartening, as Bush Jr.'s poll numbers had up to this point nearly mirrored his father's, and if the trend continued, it only spelled good news for the Democratic contender in 2004. But it itched at the back of my brain, particularly as I watched Bush Jr.'s mostly successful campaign to rewrite the history of his father's failed re-election bid. Or I should say recreate the public perception of that period. But more on that in a later post.
I've been using my self-imposed vacation to revisit the Fall of 1991, to try and glean from the historical record the reasons for Bush Sr.'s sudden freefall in popularity. As in my previous efforts, I found no single cause, but a series of unrelated events which appear to have converged in a particularly negative fashion; a political Perfect Storm.
Somewhat ironically, the actual storm provides an appropriate metaphorical backdrop for it's political counterpart. The rapidly cooling Atlantic Gulf Stream, the listless economic recovery into which a number of political cyclones converge; to the east, a strong extra-tropical low forms, the Robert Gates confirmation for CIA Director, churning up from the depths the wreckage of the Iran-Contra affair; to the south, the Clarence Thomas nomination, a weak Hurricane Grace on track to safely navigate past the growing low pressure system, suddenly makes a hairpin turn straight into its path as the Anita Hill allegations surface. Various strong upper air currents in the form of a spate of negative economic reports and a failing Middle-East peace initiative, deepen the pressure. Finally, a cold front sweeps in from the Great Lakes, Bush's vetoing of a popular bill to extend unemployment benefits, wrapping around the other two systems and sends them spinning.
The results? Despite a recent foreign policy coup of a large arms reduction agreement with the Russians which sends his favorable rating in late September to over 70%, the "Perfect Storm" of October sees his poll numbers plummet over 20 points by early December. And despite a strengthening, albeit jobless, economic recovery in early 1992, Bush's favorables topple to a low of 30% by midyear.
Judging from the apparent randomness of the events of Bush Sr.'s 1991 "Perfect Storm", it seems nearly inconceivable that such a thing could ever happen a second time, let alone to the son of the former President. But although my expertise in meteorology extends barely beyond The Weather Channel, even I can see the storm clouds gathering. The similar climatological conditions are eerie enough, namely a stumbling, jobless recovery with ineffective attempts at needling growth through a bullish stock market. Add to that any of the myriad of potential political tempests lurking on the horizon, including the possibility of one or more Supreme Court nomination battles, and the forecast for Bush Jr., whether it be a hurricane or a steady, flooding monsoon, could turn out to be a lot less sunny than his current supporter's predict.
I, for one, am keeping my galoshes nearby.
Posted by MB at June 24, 2003 11:53 AM | TrackBackThere is a parallel to the economy and stock market. Just as there has been a disconnect between Bush's perception and the reality of what is happening, so too is there a disconnect between the reality of worsening economic conditions and the rising stock market. I think a perfect storm is gathering here, as the reality of the problems in our economy and growing chaos in Iraq dawn on the public in the form of the reality of the falling stock market (soon, I think), reality of the tax cut being really a form of economic sabotage, and more and more body bags of Americans coming home. In both the economy and the continuing war, we could easily go from a dreamlike unacceptance of reality to a crashing and extreme pessimism, which would sink Bush's popularity like a rock.
As someone once said, "Are you better off now than your were four years ago?"
Posted by: Carl Tichler at June 24, 2003 02:42 PMI like Chaos Theory. You know, where you can push things so far and then, snap, they fall into another minimum? I think the same thing is happening in America today. The news media is all "Bush, Bush, Republican, Bush" but they know which side their bread is buttered. As soon as Bush looks weak, they will disown him faster than you can say knife and start cosying up to the Democrats. After all, there's no point being against the Government, is there? They always get in.
I think, like you, that the pressure will build up and up until the tidal wave of pressure which has been building up against Bush and the Republicans will wash them away.
Good luck, my American friends!
Posted by: Larry Lurex at June 25, 2003 11:18 AM